We've been talking up RJ Harvey, and the first preseason game, at San Francisco, didn't change anything. Still a rookie running back I'd like to select in upcoming drafts.
Harvey started the game. I saw it misreported somewhere that J.K. Dobbins didn't play, but in fact Dobbins came in for the first third-down situation. It highlights a concern that has been mentioned some, that Harvey needs some work to do in pass protection.
But Sean Payton has spoken favorably about Harvey's development in this area, preaching patience. And the fact that Harvey started the game, and also ripped off a nice run on a play where he seemed to be totally bottled up in the middle of the line, was encouraging.
Denver drafted Harvey in the second round and talked him up afterward. But then they signed free agent Dobbins, throwing some cold water on the idea of Harvey being a busy rookie. Sean Payton backfields are frequently committees.
But this has also made Harvey easier to draft, which is a plus. Though Denver has other backs (Jaleel McLaughlin, Tyler Badie, Audric Estime - for now), it should be a Harvey-Dobbins tandem. And Dobbins isn't a great bet to keep that going all season.
Dobbins has played in a total of 22 games over the past four seasons. Two years in a row a Harbaugh brother -- coaches for whom running the ball is in their core DNA -- has had zero interest in bringing him back. There's a reason why he was out there free to sign with a team in mid-June, and it's not because a workhorse role for a playoff contender is his likeliest outcome. Might Dobbins get a lot of work for the Broncos this year, sure. I never root for injuries. But let's consider the larger reality that he's missed at least 4 games four years in a row and much more than that in three of those.
Harvey is Payton's second-round pick, the 5th running back drafted in what was considered a very strong and deep draft for the position. In the last 10 years there have been 21 running backs selected in the second round. A very small percentage of those players who stayed healthy played sparingly as rookies.
Looking at the numbers: 10 of the 21 finished in the top 35 at the position in PPR leagues; seven in the top 25. Two others (Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook) definitely would have had they not missed more than half of their rookie seasons due to injury. And two others (Derrius Guice, Jonathon Brooks) were hurt all season.
About half of the seven second-rounders who actually played situational roles as rookies were stuck behind elite starters: Aaron Jones, DeMarco Murray, Kenneth Walker. (In the table, sorted by PPR ranking as rookies, guys who were injured for more than half the season are in italics.)
| 2ND-ROUND RUNNING BACK ROOKIE NUMBERS, 2015-2024 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Run | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 2020 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 15 | 1169 | 36 | 299 | 12 | 6 |
| 2019 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 16 | 818 | 50 | 509 | 6 | 15 |
| 2020 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 13 | 521 | 46 | 357 | 10 | 16 |
| 2018 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 16 | 996 | 20 | 149 | 10 | 17 |
| 2021 | Javonte Williams, Den. | 17 | 903 | 43 | 316 | 7 | 17 |
| 2022 | Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 15 | 1050 | 27 | 165 | 9 | 18 |
| 2020 | J.K. Dobbins, Balt. | 15 | 805 | 18 | 120 | 9 | 24 |
| 2015 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 12 | 740 | 36 | 279 | 3 | 28 |
| 2017 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 14 | 626 | 30 | 287 | 4 | 33 |
| 2018 | Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 10 | 641 | 32 | 213 | 4 | 33 |
| 2022 | Breece Hall, NYJ | 7 | 463 | 19 | 218 | 5 | 42 |
| 2015 | Ameer Abdullah, Det. | 16 | 597 | 25 | 183 | 3 | 44 |
| 2022 | James Cook, Buff. | 16 | 507 | 21 | 180 | 3 | 44 |
| 2016 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 15 | 490 | 13 | 137 | 5 | 45 |
| 2020 | Cam Akers, LAR | 13 | 625 | 11 | 123 | 3 | 45 |
| 2023 | Zach Charbonnet, Sea. | 16 | 462 | 33 | 209 | 1 | 45 |
| 2017 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 4 | 354 | 11 | 90 | 2 | 72 |
| 2020 | AJ Dillon, G.B. | 11 | 242 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 83 |
| 2018 | Ronald Jones, T.B. | 9 | 44 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 95 |
| 2024 | Jonathon Brooks, Car. | 3 | 22 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 114 |
| 2018 | Derrius Guice, Was. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 |
Maybe Dobbins will play up to half the time in Denver. If healthy, he's comparable to, say, Kenneth Walker, perhaps having a featured role, leaving Harvey as a tough player to start in most games.
But I doubt it. I will take the recent ADP dip on Harvey and select him. The small on-field sample from Saturday night looked good to me. I believe Sean Payton's second-round pick is a safer choice with more upside than Dobbins is likely to have. Possible he gradually earns that role in the passing game, and more likely to see an expanded role (and stay on the field) as the year goes on.
--Andy Richardson