We did a "Do Not Draft List" question for Ask the Experts recently. People liked it, so I thought I'd put together a list of my guys. Or my non-guys, if you will.
To be clear, very few of these players would I simply delete from my draft board. If it's Round 15 and there's an NFL starting running back still sitting there, I'll take him. But if it's a player I wouldn't consider until 2-3 rounds after their ADP, they're essentially Do Not Draft guys, because they're not going to be there. So it's the same thing. Here's an entire starting lineup (let's assume a couple of flex spots) of guys that come to mind for me.
Patrick Mahomes. Great quarterback. Who knows, maybe he'll have a great year leading the league in touchdown passes or something. He might be on a mission after getting embarrassed in the last Super Bowl, and the team might not have a good running game. But setting aside the fact that he destroyed my team when I drafted him early a year ago and I tend to carry grudges, there's the fact that Kansas City is playing for Super Bowls and don't seem to care about winning games with big offensive numbers if the defense is doing its thing. I expect Mahomes to have a good year, but he won't run a lot (why risk injury) and won't engage in many shootouts with his defense playing well. Won't be on any of my teams.
D'Andre Swift. It appears he'll be Chicago's starting running back this year. That worked out well for a couple of different guys in Ben Johnson's offense in Detroit. But Swift isn't going to take over games, I don't think he'll score very many touchdowns, and the passing game should be better than the running game in this offense. He's fine, but I'd rather toss a late pick at one of the other running backs on the roster who might wind up being similar or better -- late-round rookie Kyle Monangai, as a for instance.
De'Von Achane. I'm sensing train wreck in Miami. The personnel moves have been strange, the offbeat head coach might have worn out his welcome. the quarterback is concussion prone. And the starting running back is a smaller guy for whom injuries could also be an issue. I get thrilled when somebody grabs him in the first couple of rounds, pushing a better prospect down to me.
Jaylen Warren. Props to the formerly undrafted Warren for being a viable NFL running back these past three years. But his timeshare with Najee Harris is now being replaced by a timeshare with Kenneth Gainwell and Kaleb Johnson. One guy might get as many chances in passing situations, one guy will probably be getting more goal-line carries. And Aaron Rodgers loves to pad his stats with 1- and 2-yard touchdown passes.
Garrett Wilson, DK Metcalf. I'm listing these guys together as the No. 1 wide receiver, because Wilson is obvious and oft-mentioned and I'm ignoring them both for the same reason, essentially. One has a quarterback who simply can't play, the other has one who is mercurial and prickly and he might not be a great fit with. I love seeing someone draft Wilson as their No. 1, leaving a better wideout with a better quarterback (there are approximately 28-30 of them) for me. Metcalf, it's nice that Rodgers will probably be locked in on him. There's potential for him to put up strong numbers and catch a lot of touchdowns. But with Arthur Smith running things, am I confident that Metcalf will be catching even a third of the touchdowns? I am not, I'm concerned it'll be one of three different tight ends catching those scoring passes.
Chris Olave. Olave will probably be the No. 1 wideout in New Orleans. But setting aside the concussion history, he might also have the league's worst quarterbacking situation. I just don't see any way things are good for him in New Orelans' offense. (This concern basically applies to Rashid Shaheed and Juwan Johnson too. Zero interest in Saints receivers.)
Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman. Lamar Jackson is awesome. The Ravens will probably have one of the best offenses. But they had one of the best offenses last year, and Flowers didn't catch enough touchdowns (just 4) and Bateman doesn't catch enough passes (2.6 per game in his "breakout season"). Bateman (9 TDs) has some appeal in standard scoring systems and Flowers has a nice PPR floor (74 catches a year ago), but with multiple viable tight ends, and running backs, and even the decrepit presence of yet another aged wide receiver (DeAndre Hopkins) who did his best work years ago for another team, the kind of the guy the Ravens just can't help themselves from continually signing, I don't think either player will be a happy presence in lineups. Somebody else can wade into this mess.
Travis Kelce. See Mahomes, Patrick. Word is that Kelce is slimmer and faster. OK. He's also older, and he and Andy Reid are going to be saving his best work for the postseason. No chance I draft Kelce anywhere.
Colston Loveland. I've mentioned Pittsburgh tight ends in passing, and hinted at what I think about Darren Waller coming out of the recording studio to play in Miami. But let's include Loveland, who's going to a crowded offense with another viable receiver at the position in Cole Kmet and (I think) three good wide receivers, maybe four (Olamide Zaccheaus is getting some love, and they've got Moore-Odunze-Burden as well). I'm not anti-rookie tight ends, I like Tyler Warren, but somebody else can take the plunge on Loveland.
I've got drafts all next week, and I'll come here and write about them afterwards, hoping it's useful to people. But I can tell you now for certain, if I drafted any of these players, it's because I timed out or my dog sat on my keyboard or something. Won't be on my teams.