Couple years ago we started publishing Index Bets, which discusses our favorite wagers each week based on what we're expecting from each game compared to what the oddsmakers are offering. So far, so good; year 3 will get rolling on Thursday.
You can purchase it by the month or by the season in the Fantasy Index Store, with new issues showing up in your inbox each Thursday. Values at the various gambling sites (I tend to go with FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings, or Fanatics), favorite over-unders, and game lines when I see particularly good ones. We'll be doing it each week through the Divisional Round of the playoffs in January; check it out.
As for the season as a whole, here are some of what look like the better bets to me before anything kicks off. Good luck to all of you with your wagers.
Playoff Teams. Here's a Future Special on FanDuel Sportsbook that looks pretty appealing. "Dolphins, Browns, Saints and Titans to each miss the playoffs." The Saints and Browns, objectively, look like two of the league's very worst teams. Both will be starting multiple quarterbacks, both are just hoping to make some positive steps toward contention in 2026. It's a long season and anything can happen, but in these cases it almost certainly won't be.
There's been a lousy vibe around the Dolphins all offseason. Some of the veterans may have tuned out Mike McDaniel. The most talented players on offense are either old (Tyreek) or injury risks (Tua, Achane). And that's without even mentioning old injury risk Darren Waller. They're battling to avoid the AFC East basement, not make the playoffs.
The Titans, well, they're playing in a weak division and have some hope with their top pick quarterback. But the overall talent level, most likely, will have them a year away from serious contention. A 7-10 season would be a success. This is a bet I'll make.
A sister bet has the following three teams making the playoffs: Philadelphia and Kansas City (they met in last year's Super Bowl) and Baltimore. Maybe everything goes south for one of these teams, and they could certainly, easily finish 2nd in their respective divisions. But betting on those three teams who each won 12-15 games a year ago to simply make the playoffs seems like a generous offer.
Win Totals. We all think we know what will happen; who will be the good teams, who will be the bad, etc. There are surprise playoff teams each year, and surprise flops. But I feel good about my chance of hitting on a majority of these over-unders at the start of the year. So here are a few overs:
Packers, Broncos, Giants. The Packers are showing an over-under of 9.5. It's a 17-game season, and I think Green Bay was the 2nd-best team in the NFC North even before swinging the Micah Parsons trade. Betting on them to go at least 10-7 seems pretty reasonable. That's a good roster and coaching staff.
With the Broncos, as we've regularly pointed out, they were a lot better the second half of last season compared to the first. Their offense really put things together as Bo Nix developed, and they have one of the league's best defenses. No question. They are also listed at 9.5. It's a tough division, the AFC West, but they're going to have a pair of 10-win teams, and one should be Denver.
The Giants are listed at 5.5 wins. A little tricky. But New York has a talented defense, capable veteran quarterback, and better skill position guys than they get credit for. New York going just 6-11 wouldn't thrill the local folks and won't necessarily save Brian Daboll's job, but it would win this bet.
And now the unders:
Steelers, Patriots, Dolphins. All three are listed at 8.5 wins. I am aware that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record, but he has had a few 8-win seasons, and that's what I think this will probably be (at best). The Ravens and Bengals will be tough for the Steelers to get by. They have one good wide receiver, an aged quarterback, a too-cute-for-his-own-good offensive coordinator, and a lot of their personnel moves (shipping off Minkah and Pickens) leave the team weaker at those spots. But at least they have another viable receiver at tight end. Pittsburgh going 8-9 is their ceiling.
The Patriots and Dolphins winning 9 games -- either one of them -- looks wildly optimistic. Sure, maybe they'll go 3-1 against the Jets, and of course they'll combine for 2 wins (and 2 losses) against each other. But I'm not sure where all their other wins are going to come from. I like Drake Maye and some of the Dolphins key starters, and they'll get some cheap wins against the NFC South. But they'll get rolled by the better teams they'll face (including a couple of AFC North teams, and Buffalo). A year ago their combined record was 12-22. New England winning 8 games would be a successful season. Miami having a winning record -- not gonna happen.
Player props. These are risky bets since they're bets on health. I love Joe Burrow to lead the league in passing yards, but that won't happen if he gets hurt. Same with Ja'Marr Chase for receiving yards. We're drifting into territory where I prefer betting on the upcoming week, rather than the season.
But if you were comfortable picking Chase as the top pick in every draft, as most were, it seems reasonable to bet on him leading the NFL in receiving yards. And I don't see any offense passing it more often and effectively than the Bengals, so give me Burrow too.
As far as rushing, again we're into the injury area. But let's look at running backs who will dominate even without being a big part of the passing game. Rather quietly, Derrick Henry finished just 84 rushing yards behind Saquon Barkley last year, and 465 ahead of 3rd-place Bijan Robinson. I'll take King Henry to finish as the league leader in rushing.
If you've got a favorite prop bet for the 2025 NFL season, please feel free to post it below. And I'll see you, I hope, across the Index Bets publication, each and every Thursday. Happy betting.