Alec Pierce was unusually effective as a deep threat last year. He had 7 receptions of 40-plus yards, trying for 2nd-most in the league. He also averaged 22.3 yards per catch. But I think we can safely pack away Pierce for the 2025 season.
The numbers from last year are pretty remarkable. Only three players were able to hit on 7 of those 40-plus yard plays. Ja’Marr Chase had 8, and Brian Thomas had 7 for the Jaguars.
But last year is last year. The Colts are handing the reins to Daniel Jones now, and I don’t think he can serve up those balls as well as Joe Flacco or even Anthony Richardson.
Jones doesn’t seem to have the accuracy or timing to consistently connect on those throws. He doesn’t seem to see those plays developing, and too often his passes come in too flat or off target. In the 2023 season, Darius Slayton had 6 catches for 30-plus for the Giants – all came when Tyrod Taylor or Tommy DeVito was filling in at quarterback. (None in Jones’ six starts.)
Last year, fewer than 9 percent of Jones’ completions went for 20-plus yards, the lowest rate of any regular starter – below even Tua Tagovailoa. (In the below chart, all quarterbacks who started at least half the season are listed.)
Nobody should be drafting Alec Pierce with the expectation of him again connecting on some haymaker long balls.
| PERCENTAGE OF 20-YARD GAINS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | Com | 20+ | Pct |
| • Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 126 | 28 | 22.2% |
| Russell Wilson, Pitt. | 214 | 40 | 18.7% |
| Brock Purdy, S.F. | 300 | 56 | 18.7% |
| Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 172 | 32 | 18.6% |
| Jordan Love, G.B. | 268 | 48 | 17.9% |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 316 | 56 | 17.7% |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | 307 | 54 | 17.6% |
| Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 248 | 43 | 17.3% |
| Sam Darnold, Min. | 361 | 62 | 17.2% |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | 332 | 54 | 16.3% |
| Jared Goff, Det. | 390 | 61 | 15.6% |
| Derek Carr, N.O. | 189 | 27 | 14.3% |
| Baker Mayfield, T.B. | 407 | 58 | 14.3% |
| Kirk Cousins, Atl. | 303 | 42 | 13.9% |
| Aaron Rodgers, NYJ | 368 | 51 | 13.9% |
| Bo Nix, Den. | 376 | 51 | 13.6% |
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | 340 | 45 | 13.2% |
| Will Levis, Ten. | 190 | 25 | 13.2% |
| Bryce Young, Car. | 234 | 30 | 12.8% |
| C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 336 | 42 | 12.5% |
| Jayden Daniels, Was. | 331 | 41 | 12.4% |
| Geno Smith, Sea. | 407 | 50 | 12.3% |
| Kyler Murray, Ari. | 372 | 43 | 11.6% |
| Caleb Williams, Chi. | 351 | 40 | 11.4% |
| Drake Maye, N.E. | 225 | 25 | 11.1% |
| Gardner Minshew, L.V. | 203 | 22 | 10.8% |
| Joe Burrow, Cin. | 460 | 49 | 10.7% |
| Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 392 | 40 | 10.2% |
| Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 291 | 29 | 10.0% |
| Daniel Jones, NYG | 216 | 19 | 8.8% |
—Ian Allan