I like Bo Nix. If I don’t wind up picking one of the top quarterbacks, I could see Nix being the guy I wind up with.
Certainly, he’s not a Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson. And I’ve got Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels in that top tier as well. But those guys, along with Jalen Hurts (in most scoring systems), are all going to command a top price tag. When you take one of those quarterbacks, it’s with the admission you won’t be as strong at running back or wide receiver.
When we’re getting into that next wave of quarterbacks, I’m very comfortable with Nix. He was a much better quarterback at the end of last season.
Nix averaged only 191 passing yards in his first eight games last year, with 8 TDs. They had the training wheels on the passing game – his job was just to avoid fouling things up.
If we set aside the meaningless Week 18 laugher against Kansas City (which was playing backups) Nix in his final eight averaged 241 passing yards, with 17 TD passes. If we’re getting that for 17 games, we’re looking at about 4,100 passing yards and 36 TDs. While that seems high and optimistic, it underscores that Nix could be a better value than most of those top quarterbacks.
I like the way Sean Payton runs his offense, with an emphasis on the pass in the red zone. In the 2023 season, with Payton bickering with Russell Wilson, that team finished with 28 TD passes versus only 8 TD runs. And last year’s offense finished with 30 touchdown passes versus only 12 runs.
Since Payton showed up, the Broncos have scored 74 percent of their offensive touchdowns on passes. Only three teams over the last two years have more pass-oriented offenses (in terms of touchdowns).
| OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS (last 2 yrs) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total | Pass% |
| Minnesota | 65 | 16 | 81 | 80.2 |
| Cincinnati | 70 | 23 | 93 | 75.3 |
| Dallas | 59 | 20 | 79 | 74.7 |
| Denver | 58 | 20 | 78 | 74.4 |
| Tampa Bay | 69 | 24 | 93 | 74.2 |
| NY Jets | 42 | 15 | 57 | 73.7 |
| Kansas City | 54 | 24 | 78 | 69.2 |
| Houston | 47 | 25 | 72 | 65.3 |
| Cleveland | 43 | 23 | 66 | 65.2 |
| Las Vegas | 39 | 21 | 60 | 65.0 |
| Green Bay | 60 | 33 | 93 | 64.5 |
| New Orleans | 49 | 28 | 77 | 63.6 |
| New England | 34 | 20 | 54 | 63.0 |
| LA Chargers | 47 | 28 | 75 | 62.7 |
| Seattle | 44 | 28 | 72 | 61.1 |
| LA Rams | 48 | 33 | 81 | 59.3 |
| Baltimore | 68 | 47 | 116 | 58.6 |
| Carolina | 35 | 25 | 60 | 58.3 |
| Jacksonville | 41 | 30 | 71 | 57.7 |
| Chicago | 39 | 29 | 68 | 57.4 |
| Miami | 52 | 39 | 91 | 57.1 |
| Tennessee | 36 | 27 | 63 | 57.1 |
| Washington | 53 | 39 | 93 | 57.0 |
| NY Giants | 30 | 23 | 53 | 56.6 |
| San Francisco | 56 | 44 | 100 | 56.0 |
| Detroit | 69 | 56 | 125 | 55.2 |
| Atlanta | 38 | 32 | 70 | 54.3 |
| Pittsburgh | 34 | 30 | 64 | 53.1 |
| Buffalo | 59 | 54 | 113 | 52.2 |
| Arizona | 39 | 35 | 76 | 51.3 |
| Indianapolis | 38 | 39 | 77 | 49.4 |
| Philadelphia | 48 | 51 | 99 | 48.5 |
—Ian Allan