I don't need to tell you the dangers of overreacting. If you give up on players after one bad week, you can really hurt yourself in the long term. I mean, you wouldn't even consider giving up on your quarterback after one game, unless you're the Giants. And you're not the Giants. You're better than that.
But overreacting isn't all bad, because if your league mates do it, there can be some real advantages for you. And one of those advantages might pop up this week.
All it takes is the combination of disappointment in a player, and the shiny allure of the waiver wire flavor of the week, for mistakes to be made. And the waiver wire will be popular this week, since everyone wants to improve their team after one game. Sure, they might do more harm than good, but that's their problem. Because I don't think you should worry too much about the waiver wire when it first opens. The real focus should be after other managers have made their decisions, because that's where the value is.
This is a week where teams will definitely ditch players they spent draft capital obtaining for the right to pick up other players they passed on 12-15 times just a few weeks ago. Some managers (like me) keep a spot open as a revolving door all season to see if something sticks. But that's already baked into my draft prep so I'm not risking much. Since this is the first week, every player that managers discard is either somebody they drafted, or somebody they picked up before the games started. And if they were valuable before, maybe they still hold value after a whole 60 minutes of game play.
Unless you really need someone, like a replacement for George Kittle, consider holding your waiver spot until later in the week. See who got cut by other teams. Odds are pretty good that there will be more talent on the waiver wire after the first wave of selections than there were before. Managers panic, they see a nice box score from a different guy, and they lament a close loss due to severe underperformance. Next thing you know, a player who might help your team is available, and a lot of managers have used their waiver priority for the week. If you can make your team better, go for it.
You’ll have to give someone up, of course. A someone you also drafted. But if you see a guy you would have drafted yourself, consider making a change. If you're not sure you can always stand pat. At the very least, keep an eye out for new guys who were dumped by an impatient manager. This week might yield some unexpected gems on a waiver wire that’s normally known for fool's gold. They probably aren’t there today, but give it a couple of days and you might see them.
I’m not saying there can’t be someone worth picking up now. I’m saying that the odds of finding your league savior is pretty low and throwing away a useful player is pretty high, especially after just one week. Let other managers cut a decent player this early, and see if they might be worth a spot on your team. And the more managers who do that, the better your waiver priority will be if you want one of them. Any advantage you can get now is yours for the next few months, so keep an eye out for who got dropped. Good luck this week.
Have you ever seen a manager throw away a solid player after one bad game? Who’s the best player you saw dropped way too early? Anyone you’re ready to ditch already? Share your thoughts below.