Brock Purdy is expected to miss 2-5 games with a turf toe type injury, but I don’t think the 49ers should be too worried. They’ve got Mac Jones, and they’ve got Kyle Shanahan.
With those two in place, I expect the falloff in passing production will be a lot less than most are expecting.
Coaches matter, and Shanahan (like Sean McVay and Kevin O’Connell) has shown he knows how to draw up an offense. He knows how to attack a defense.
Since Shanahan took over in San Francisco, that offense has averaged 260 passing yards per game. Only six teams have passed for more yards since 2017.
Touchdowns, admittedly, aren’t as impressive – 208 TD passes in 133 games works out to 1.56 per game, which is a middle-of-the-pack number. So for fantasy production (4 points for TD passes, and 1 for every 20 yards), 10 teams have put up better passing numbers than San Francisco since 2017.
| PASSING YARDS PER GAME SINCE 2017 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | Yards/G | Pct | TD | Int | F Pts/G |
| Tampa Bay | 291.1 | 65.3 | 278 | 130 | 22.9 |
| Kansas City | 285.9 | 66.5 | 279 | 85 | 22.7 |
| LA Chargers | 273.7 | 66.0 | 229 | 89 | 20.6 |
| Detroit | 261.5 | 66.0 | 228 | 97 | 19.9 |
| Minnesota | 261.0 | 67.5 | 247 | 93 | 20.5 |
| LA Rams | 260.5 | 64.5 | 208 | 105 | 19.3 |
| San Francisco | 260.1 | 65.2 | 208 | 118 | 19.3 |
| Dallas | 258.9 | 65.6 | 226 | 98 | 19.7 |
| Atlanta | 255.9 | 65.3 | 189 | 105 | 18.5 |
| Cincinnati | 252.7 | 65.0 | 231 | 101 | 19.6 |
| Las Vegas | 251.5 | 65.6 | 183 | 108 | 18.1 |
| Green Bay | 249.8 | 64.7 | 252 | 72 | 20.1 |
| Miami | 246.1 | 65.0 | 200 | 121 | 18.3 |
| Houston | 246.1 | 64.1 | 202 | 102 | 18.4 |
| Seattle | 244.9 | 66.5 | 244 | 85 | 19.6 |
| New Orleans | 244.1 | 67.6 | 222 | 79 | 18.9 |
| Buffalo | 241.0 | 62.6 | 222 | 110 | 18.7 |
| Pittsburgh | 240.6 | 64.5 | 190 | 102 | 17.7 |
| Philadelphia | 240.4 | 63.9 | 209 | 89 | 18.3 |
| New England | 234.9 | 64.9 | 176 | 102 | 17.0 |
| Jacksonville | 234.7 | 62.7 | 164 | 106 | 16.7 |
| Cleveland | 232.0 | 59.7 | 177 | 148 | 16.9 |
| Arizona | 231.6 | 64.3 | 168 | 112 | 16.6 |
| Indianapolis | 229.4 | 62.7 | 181 | 102 | 16.9 |
| Washington | 227.4 | 64.1 | 176 | 118 | 16.7 |
| Denver | 226.2 | 62.2 | 172 | 117 | 16.5 |
| NY Giants | 221.2 | 62.7 | 147 | 105 | 15.5 |
| Carolina | 220.2 | 61.5 | 149 | 130 | 15.5 |
| NY Jets | 218.6 | 60.0 | 150 | 121 | 15.4 |
| Baltimore | 217.7 | 64.0 | 212 | 83 | 17.3 |
| Tennessee | 215.4 | 64.2 | 166 | 101 | 15.8 |
| Chicago | 208.6 | 63.1 | 162 | 111 | 15.3 |
Factor in also that Shanahan has been successful despite never working with a heralded quarterback. Of those 133 starts, only 3 have been started by a quarterback picked in the first round. Trey Lance started two games, and Sam Darnold had a Week 18 start in 2023.
Instead, Shanahan has been able to get good numbers out of guys like C.J. Beathard, Nick Mullens and Jimmy Garappolo.
In the chart below, you’re seeing Shanahan’s starting quarterbacks, with their average passing and rushing stats in the games they started. The final two columns show fantasy points per game, and rank among quarterbacks in that season, relative to quarterbacks starting at least half the time (if a QB started less than half the season, the rank number is an approximation – how he would have ranked had he performed for enough games).
| SHANAHAN'S SAN FRANCISCO QUARTERBACKS | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Pass | TDP | Int | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
| 2017 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 5 | 308.4 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.4 | .20 | 21.6 | ~9 |
| 2017 | Brian Hoyer | 6 | 207.5 | .67 | .67 | 1.2 | .17 | 14.2 | ~30 |
| 2017 | C.J. Beathard | 5 | 237.0 | .60 | 1.00 | 24.4 | .60 | 20.3 | ~13 |
| 2018 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | 239.3 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 11.0 | .00 | 20.4 | ~21 |
| 2018 | C.J. Beathard | 5 | 250.4 | 1.60 | 1.40 | 13.8 | .20 | 21.5 | ~20 |
| 2018 | Nick Mullens | 8 | 284.6 | 1.63 | 1.25 | -2.0 | .00 | 20.8 | 20 |
| 2019 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 16 | 248.6 | 1.69 | .81 | 3.9 | .06 | 20.2 | 21 |
| 2020 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 6 | 182.7 | 1.17 | .83 | 4.2 | .00 | 14.2 | ~32 |
| 2020 | C.J. Beathard | 2 | 227.5 | 2.00 | .00 | 14.0 | .00 | 20.8 | ~21 |
| 2020 | Nick Mullens | 8 | 266.0 | 1.25 | 1.38 | 1.3 | .00 | 18.7 | 28 |
| 2021 | Trey Lance | 2 | 220.5 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 60.0 | .00 | 21.0 | ~13 |
| 2021 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 15 | 254.0 | 1.33 | .80 | 3.4 | .20 | 19.6 | 16 |
| 2022 | Trey Lance | 2 | 97.0 | .00 | .50 | 33.5 | .00 | 8.2 | ~33 |
| 2022 | Brock Purdy | 5 | 219.6 | 2.20 | .40 | 2.2 | .20 | 21.2 | ~13 |
| 2022 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 10 | 228.3 | 1.50 | .40 | 2.8 | .10 | 18.3 | 22 |
| 2023 | Sam Darnold | 1 | 189.0 | 1.00 | .00 | 19.0 | 1.00 | 21.4 | ~13 |
| 2023 | Brock Purdy | 16 | 267.5 | 1.94 | .69 | 9.0 | .13 | 22.8 | 6 |
| 2024 | Joshua Dobbs | 1 | 326.0 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 17.0 | 1.00 | 32.0 | ~1 |
| 2024 | Brandon Allen | 1 | 199.0 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 5.0 | .00 | 14.5 | ~31 |
| 2024 | Brock Purdy | 15 | 257.6 | 1.33 | .80 | 21.5 | .33 | 22.4 | 9 |
| 2025 | Brock Purdy | 1 | 277.0 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 17.0 | .00 | 23.6 | -- |
| 2025 | • Mac Jones | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| '17-'25 | Average | -- | 246.9 | 1.44 | .84 | 8.6 | .16 | 20.0 | -- |
All of which brings us to 2025 and Mac Jones. I remember him playing well as a rookie for the Patriots in 2021, averaging 224 passing yards, with 22 TDs and 13 interceptions (in 17 starts). Many believe, recall, that the 49ers originally traded up in that draft with the intention of picking Jones, but then changed their minds and instead went for Trey Lance’s athleticism.
And I remember there was a stretch last year in Jacksonville where I was wondering if Jones was just as good as Trevor Lawrence. Jones averaged 249 passing yards in a four-game block, and he threw 2 TDs in three of his last six games. Jones completed 74 percent of his passes in the preseason (albeit with 2 interceptions and no touchdowns).
To me, I think he looks like an above-average backup – better than most of the 133 quarterbacks Shanahan has put on the field in San Francisco. I think they’ll be able to scheme him up, putting up some of their usual kind of numbers. (But Jones has poor mobility, which stops him from being able to hang with Purdy statistically.)
The schedule lays out awfully nicely. The 49ers are at New Orleans this week, then they return home to face the Cardinals and Jaguars. Even with Jones at quarterback, I would think they’ll be favored in all three of those games.
To me, I think we’re looking at a decent Band-Aid quarterback. In Superflex leagues, I think Jones will grade out as a starter-quality quarterback in each of the next three weeks. (The limited mobility, I think, will prevent him heading into any of those three weeks as one of the top 15 QBs on my board.)
—Ian Allan