I like the look of that Cowboys-Jets game, with both teams having some ability on offense and both teams have lousy defenses. Should be plenty of scoring. But my confidence in Dallas tends to dim a little when they’re away from home.
At Chicago, most recently, the Cowboys came up small against a defense they should have be putting up big numbers against. I could see them coming up with one of those games against New York.
I’m not as worried about the Jets. Justin Fields has put up big numbers in two of his three games, and I’m optimistic about what he might pull off against this defense. Dallas after four weeks is first in offense and last in defense.
It’s the Cowboys that are more likely to disappoint, I think.
Consider their key player, Dak Prescott. In his last 30 games at home, he’s averaged 284 passing yards, with 69 touchdowns versus 20 interceptions. In his last 30 games away from home, he’s averaged 32 fewer yards, with 17 fewer touchdowns and 9 more interceptions. He’s actually averaged slightly more attempts and completions on the road, but they haven’t been as impactful.
A mishmash of Prescott’s last 60 games appears below, ordered from best to worst using traditional scoring (just passing stats here; no rushing). The home games are in bold, and you can tell that they tend to be better.
For this particular matchup, it looks so promising that most who hold the rights to Prescott will be using him. But I’m thinking he’s more likely to be just good or above-average, rather than really lighting up the stat sheet.
| DAK PRESCOTT: LAST 60 STARTS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Opp | Result | Pct | Yds | TD | Int | Pts |
| 2020 | Cle. | L, 38-49 | 70.7 | 502 | 4 | 1 | 41.1 |
| 2023 | NYG | W, 49-17 | 74.3 | 404 | 4 | 1 | 36.2 |
| 2020 | Sea. | L, 31-38 | 64.9 | 472 | 3 | 2 | 35.6 |
| 2021 | Phil. | W, 51-26 | 77.8 | 295 | 5 | 0 | 34.8 |
| 2021 | N.E. | W, 35-29 | 70.6 | 445 | 3 | 1 | 34.3 |
| 2023 | Was. | W, 45-10 | 68.8 | 331 | 4 | 0 | 32.6 |
| 2021 | Was. | W, 56-14 | 71.8 | 330 | 4 | 0 | 32.5 |
| 2021 | T.B. | L, 29-31 | 72.4 | 403 | 3 | 1 | 32.2 |
| 2023 | LAR | W, 43-20 | 80.6 | 304 | 4 | 1 | 31.2 |
| 2023 | Phil. | L, 23-28 | 65.9 | 374 | 3 | 0 | 30.7 |
| 2023 | Was. | W, 38-10 | 86.1 | 279 | 4 | 1 | 30.0 |
| 2022 | Phil. | W, 40-34 | 77.1 | 347 | 3 | 1 | 29.4 |
| 2025 | G.B. | T, 40-40 | 77.5 | 319 | 3 | 0 | 28.0 |
| 2021 | NYG | W, 44-20 | 68.8 | 302 | 3 | 1 | 27.1 |
| 2023 | Sea. | W, 41-35 | 70.7 | 299 | 3 | 0 | 27.0 |
| 2024 | Balt. | L, 25-28 | 54.9 | 379 | 2 | 0 | 27.0 |
| 2021 | L.V. | L, 33-36 | 68.1 | 375 | 2 | 0 | 26.8 |
| 2025 | NYG | W, 40-37 | 73.1 | 361 | 2 | 1 | 26.1 |
| 2024 | Pitt. | W, 20-17 | 69 | 352 | 2 | 2 | 25.6 |
| 2021 | Car. | W, 36-28 | 63.6 | 188 | 4 | 0 | 25.4 |
| 2023 | Det. | W, 20-19 | 68.4 | 345 | 2 | 1 | 25.3 |
| 2022 | G.B. | L, 28-31 | 58.7 | 265 | 3 | 2 | 25.3 |
| 2022 | Jac. | L, 34-40 | 76.7 | 256 | 3 | 2 | 24.8 |
| 2021 | Phil. | W, 41-21 | 80.8 | 238 | 3 | 0 | 23.9 |
| 2021 | Ari. | L, 22-25 | 63.2 | 226 | 3 | 0 | 23.3 |
| 2021 | Atl. | W, 43-3 | 77.4 | 296 | 2 | 0 | 22.8 |
| 2022 | Ten. | W, 27-13 | 70.7 | 282 | 2 | 2 | 22.1 |
| 2022 | Min. | W, 40-3 | 88 | 276 | 2 | 0 | 21.8 |
| 2023 | Phil. | W, 33-13 | 61.5 | 271 | 2 | 0 | 21.6 |
| 2022 | NYG | W, 28-20 | 70.0 | 261 | 2 | 2 | 21.1 |
| 2023 | NYJ | W, 30-10 | 81.6 | 255 | 2 | 0 | 20.8 |
| 2023 | Mia. | L, 20-22 | 62.5 | 253 | 2 | 0 | 20.7 |
| 2022 | Chi. | W, 49-29 | 77.8 | 250 | 2 | 1 | 20.5 |
| 2022 | Ind. | W, 54-19 | 66.7 | 170 | 3 | 1 | 20.5 |
| 2024 | S.F. | L, 24-30 | 65.8 | 243 | 2 | 2 | 20.2 |
| 2021 | Den. | L, 16-30 | 48.7 | 232 | 2 | 1 | 19.6 |
| 2024 | NYG | W, 20-15 | 81.5 | 221 | 2 | 0 | 19.1 |
| 2024 | N.O. | L, 19-44 | 69.2 | 293 | 1 | 2 | 18.7 |
| 2022 | Hou. | W, 27-23 | 61.5 | 284 | 1 | 2 | 18.2 |
| 2023 | LAC | W, 20-17 | 70 | 272 | 1 | 0 | 17.6 |
| 2023 | Car. | W, 33-10 | 65.8 | 189 | 2 | 0 | 17.5 |
| 2023 | N.E. | W, 38-3 | 82.4 | 261 | 1 | 0 | 17.1 |
| 2025 | Chi. | L, 14-31 | 77.5 | 251 | 1 | 2 | 16.6 |
| 2023 | Ari. | L, 16-28 | 62.5 | 249 | 1 | 1 | 16.5 |
| 2021 | N.O. | W, 27-17 | 65 | 238 | 1 | 1 | 15.9 |
| 2021 | NYG | W, 21-6 | 75.7 | 217 | 1 | 0 | 14.9 |
| 2021 | Was. | W, 27-20 | 56.4 | 211 | 1 | 2 | 14.6 |
| 2022 | Det. | W, 24-6 | 76.0 | 207 | 1 | 0 | 14.4 |
| 2024 | Cle. | W, 33-17 | 59.4 | 179 | 1 | 0 | 13.0 |
| 2021 | LAC | W, 20-17 | 85.2 | 237 | 0 | 1 | 11.9 |
| 2023 | S.F. | L, 10-42 | 58.3 | 153 | 1 | 3 | 11.7 |
| 2021 | K.C. | L, 9-19 | 65.1 | 216 | 0 | 2 | 10.8 |
| 2024 | Atl. | L, 21-27 | 75 | 133 | 1 | 0 | 10.7 |
| 2022 | Was. | L, 6-26 | 37.8 | 128 | 1 | 1 | 10.4 |
| 2025 | Phil. | L, 20-24 | 61.8 | 188 | 0 | 0 | 9.4 |
| 2024 | Det. | L, 9-47 | 51.5 | 178 | 0 | 2 | 8.9 |
| 2020 | NYG | W, 37-34 | 66.7 | 166 | 0 | 1 | 8.3 |
| 2023 | NYG | W, 40-0 | 54.2 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 7.2 |
| 2023 | Buff. | L, 10-31 | 61.8 | 134 | 0 | 1 | 6.7 |
| 2022 | T.B. | L, 3-19 | 48.3 | 134 | 0 | 1 | 6.7 |
—Ian Allan