HOUSTON (at Balt.):
The Texans have been severely outclassed in this series, losing six straight while averaging just 7 points in the past three: 25-9 and 34-10 (playoff game) in the 2023 season and then 31-2 (in Houston) late last year.
**This snippet was first published on October 1.
But the current version of Baltimore's defense is far worse than those previous
teams, with two interior linemen (Nnamdi Madubuike, Broderick Washington) on IR
and four other top defenders (All-Pros Roquan Smith and Marlon Humphrey, as
well as Kyle Van Noy and Nate Wiggins) likely or certain to be out. The Ravens
have allowed 37-plus points and 4-5 touchdowns in three of their first four
games. Houston's offense, however, has also struggled, with more in common with
the exception (Cleveland) than the Buffalo, Detroit and Kansas City offenses that
lit the Ravens up. At home against a bad Tennessee team, Houston didn’t score
its first touchdown until the fourth quartere. The betting lines suggest no
more than 17-20 points should be expected from the Texans.
It's a tandem
backfield, with Woody Marks and Nick Chubb splitting carries from
the get-go last week. Chubb's a lot bigger (5-11, 227 compared to 5-10, 208),
while the rookie has more speed and big-play potential. That's most apparent in
the passing game, where Marks' 6 receptions have gone for more than twice as
many yards (96-46) as Chubb's 7. Last week Chubb saw 2 targets (7- and 8-yard
catches), Marks 5, catching 4 for 50 with a 12-yard touchdown. Marks also had
an 18-yard touchdown run and another 20-yard reception. Both will play, but if one
of these backs earns more work or chips in some chunk plays, it's more likely
to be Marks (who should also get the vast majority of the passing game work).
Houston's inability to run the ball against Baltimore top-ranked run defense a
year ago (its running backs combined to carry the ball 16 times for just 51
yards) doesn't seem relevant, with the core of that front seven now missing.
This Baltimore defense is allowing 141 rushing yards per week (27th), with a
league-worst 7 touchdowns. These running backs are averaging just 3.9-4.0 yards
per attempt; the offensive line isn't good, and they don't have the depth of
skill personnel as the Detroit team that really beat up the Ravens (224 rushing
yards and 4 TDs). But a favorable matchup, with Houston likely to fare a little
better than its season averages would suggest.
It's also a good situation for
C.J. Stroud. Even last year this was a bottom-3 pass defense, allowing
263 yards per week and 27 touchdowns, and thus far they're 29th, allowing 271
yards per game, with 9 TDs. Stroud's not at the level of Josh Allen (394 yards)
or Patrick Mahomes (4 TDs), but those totals provide a sense of the issues this
defense is having, missing top pass rusher Van Noy and a pair of cornerbacks.
Stroud is off to a modest start, averaging 208 passing yards and just 1
touchdown per game, but took a step in the right direction a week ago (233 and
2), and it's debatable how much better Baltimore's defense is than Tennessee's
at this point. Somewhere along the lines of 220 yards and 1-2 TDs looks fair,
and Stroud is running a little (23 yards per week), which hasn’t been the case
in the past. Stroud struggled to just 185 yards in last year's loss, sacked 5
times by Baltimore's 2nd-ranked pass rush. This year the Ravens have only 4
sacks on the season.
When Stroud throws, he's got Nico Collins and a
bunch of guys competing for looks. Even
just looking at the last two games, with Christian Kirk in the lineup,
Collins has 12 catches for an average of 92 yards, with 1 TD. Kirk has 3
receptions for 20-25 yards in each contest, similar to Xavier Hutchinson
(5 for 43 in those games). Jayden Higgins snuck free to catch a 24-yard
touchdown against the Titans, but he's seen just 1 target each of the past two
weeks, same as the team's other rookie out of Iowa State, Jaylin Noel.
Any one of these players has potential for a big play against this defense,
considering its myriad injury woes, but it's Collins and to a lesser extent
Kirk that looks safe to catch 3-plus passes. Collins on the season averages 4.5
catches for 65 yards, with 2 TDs; impressive given the offense's overall
struggles. He caught 3 for 59 in the game last year. A wide receiver has caught
a touchdown against the Ravens in every game (6 total).
Dalton Schultz
is a low-level option, although give him some credit for predictability if
nothing else. Four games in a row he's caught 3-5 passes for 28-39 yards,
pretty close to last year's season averages (3.1 catches for 31 yards per
week). He's scored just twice in his last 26 games.
With the offense
scuffling, Ka'imi Fairbairn hasn't been great, kicking 8 field goals and
4 extra points -- exactly 7 points per week. The Ravens are allowing over 9 per
week to opposing kickers, although facing the league's two top-scoring offenses
(Bills and Lions) in half of their four games doesn't help. But we'll rank
Fairbairn a little higher than usual.
The Texans Defense will face
Cooper Rush, which has some potential. Rush in eight starts for Dallas last
season wasn't terrible, throwing 4 interceptions, fumbling 8 times (3 lost) and
taking 13 sacks. But his worst game was against Houston: 5 sacks, an
interception and 2 fumbles. The Texans have only 3 takeaways, but only six
teams have more sacks (11). Jaylin Noel has a 53-yard punt return, though he's
never actually scored on a return (pros or in college -- 53 punt and 37 kickoff
returns at Iowa State).
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 5 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst & Super Fanatic Packages. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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