KANSAS CITY (vs. Det.):
Here’s a matchup that lines up perfectly for Kansas City. The Lions have won four in a row, but they’ll also be without both of their starting cornerbacks.
KC’s offense, on the other hand, is just rounding into form, with
4 touchdowns in each of its last two games – they blew out the Ravens, and they
piled up 476 yards at Jacksonville on Monday night. Given the injuries, they
should be moving the ball at will against this depleted defense. Kansas City
opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but it should really be more, given the injury
situation. The over-under is 52.5 points, which is the highest of the week.
Patrick
Mahomes has underperformed for most of the last two years, with the offense
scoring only 37 and 41 touchdowns in those seasons. But here’s a week where he
can get back to putting up uber-elite numbers. He's been heating up anyway,
with the offense scoring 4 TDs in back-to-back games, and now he’s facing a
defense playing without both of its cornerbacks. Kansas City, on the other
hand, is starting to get healthy. That puts Mahomes in play for 300-plus yards
and 3 TDs. And as a bonus, he’s running more now than he has in the past. He’s
averaging 38 rushing yards, with half of the team’s 6 rushing touchdowns.
With the cornerback injuries, this sure looks like a week to be using the wide
receivers. Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton in particular. They
have the most ability to get downfield for something big. Thornton won’t
necessarily play a ton; he’s a rotational player. But he’s been their most
effective deep threat. Despite limited snaps, he got deep for 3 catches on
Monday night, and he scored in each of his 3 previous games. Playing deep
threats is a hit or miss business, but the odds seem to be stacked in favor of
a hit this week. Worthy has a more well-rounded role; in his two full games,
he’s caught 11 passes for 125 yards, with another 47 yards on 3 carries. (He
hasn’t actually scored a touchdown yet.)
With the other wide receivers, it’s
more of a hunt and peck situation. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Hollywood
Brown will be on the field for more plays than Thornton, but they’re not
running as many of those long, high-payoff routes. Smith-Schuster in his five
games filling in for Rashee Rice has averaged 3.2 catches for 33 yards, with
one touchdown. Brown started with 10 catches in Brazil (when he was thrust into
a featured role). Since that time, he’s averaged 4 catches for 40 yards in four
games, with one touchdown.
Travis Kelce has declined, but he’s still
got some ability to work the middle of the field. He’s averaging 4.4 catches
for 49 yards, with 2 TDs in five weeks. Passing production should be higher
this week, making it likely he goes for a little more in this one. A Kelce
contemporary, Mark Andrews, went for 91 yards and 2 TDs against this defense
back in Week 3.
It’s tough to start a Kansas City running back with any
confidence. They don’t run the ball all that well, and they’re using a
committee approach, with Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt doing the
heavy lifting, and they’ve started working in Brashard Smith. Smith
catches better than those guys. Smith has caught 3 passes in back-to-back games
and nearly scored on a run on Monday night. Pacheco and Hunt are both averaging
33 rushing yards, and they’re both averaging 9 receiving yards. Hunt is getting
the goal-line looks, making him the better statistical option. Thus far Hunt
has a 3-0 edge in rushing touchdowns; he has 7 carries inside the 10-yard line,
while Pacheco has none. This looks like a decent matchup, considering KC should
be scoring often, with that defense loosened up. But the Lions play good run
defense (7th, so far).
With the Lions juggling injuries, Harrison Butker looks
like an above-average scorer, rather than a great one. KC is looking more
likely to be scoring touchdowns in this one. Butker on Monday night finished
with 4 extra points but no field goal attempts.
The Kansas City Defense looks
like a below-average option. It’s currently above-average in sacks, with a
middle-of-the-pack 6 takeaways, but Detroit represents a tough matchup, with
its superior offensive line and running game. The Lions have allowed only 8
sacks, and with only 3 turnovers.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 6 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst & Super Fanatic Packages. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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