I am interested in the backup running backs for Buffalo and Green Bay. They’ve been underwhelming so far, but it’s a long season.
I’m not sure exactly what these teams are up to. Last year, there was more of an effort to work in other backs. For Buffalo, James Cook was on the field for fewer than half of their snaps in nine of his last 10 games. Ray Davis and Ty Johnson combined for 668 run-records in those 10 games, with 6 TDs.
This year, Davis and Johnson are hardly getting on the field. They’ve combined for 9 carries in their last three games. They were weapons in the passing game last year (each catching 3 TDs); this year, they’ve combined for 2 catches for 7 yards in five games.
Similarly, Green Bay hasn’t done much with its backups, instead relying heavily on Josh Jacobs. Emanuel Wilson has hardly played. He was a good backup last year, running for 502 yards and 4 TDs while averaging 4.9 yards per attempt. He’s averaging 4.9 again this year, he’s just not getting on the field much.
But with these teams, I think it’s best to keep a line in the water. As heavily as these backs are being used, I expect they’ll be missing some games at some point. It’s a physically grueling position.
Jacobs so far is averaging 20 carries per game, taking a pounding. And Cook is averaging over 20 touches per game – a high workload for a 190-pounder. I don’t think Cook can continue logging 20-plus touches per week and last the entire 17 games.
For perspective, I ran some numbers on this issue. Below see the 84 running backs who’ve carried the ball at least 90 times in the first five weeks of the season in the last 15 years. We can take those backs, then look at how they performed in their remaining games. (And this is a study that applies not only to Jacobs and Cook but the other heavily used back – Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey.)
Of the 84 previous backs, 29 (over a third) missed at least two games in the final two thirds of the season. And 13 of those 84 backs (over 15 percent) missed at least four games. Combined, those 84 backs missed 142 games – an average of 1.7 per man.
So I expect we’ll see Wilson (pictured) starting for Green Bay at some point. They’ve got a couple other backups – Chris Brooks, and MarShawn Lloyd should get on the field soon – but I think Wilson is their guy. With Buffalo, I would guess they’ll need plug in a new tailback at some point as well. Davis is currently listed as their second-string tailback, while Johnson has been playing more every week – they would probably use a combination of those guys.
In the below chart, you’re seeing running backs from the last 15 years with 90 carries in their first five games. Guys who missed at least two games are tagged with dots. Guys who missed four-plus games are in bold.
The remaining numbers in the table show missed games and how performance changed in the remaining weeks in the various metrics – carries per game, yards per game, yards per carry and touchdowns per game.
Not that most of those numbers declined – 62 of the 84 backs averaged fewer carries per game in Weeks 6 and on, and 60 averaged fewer yards. It’s tighter in the other categories (38 averaged more yards per carry, and 34 averaged more touchdowns, with another 7 who had the same scoring rate both in Weeks 1-5 and beyond).
| DECLINE RATES OF BUSY BACKS (since 2010) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | First 5 G | Miss G | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 2021 | • Derrick Henry, Ten. | 142-640-7 | 9 | -2.7 | -29.0 | -.65 | -.40 |
| 2012 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 132-532-5 | 0 | -6.5 | -25.3 | .04 | -.09 |
| 2014 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 130-670-5 | 0 | -2.2 | -27.2 | -.67 | -.27 |
| 2020 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 123-588-6 | 0 | -1.4 | 13.2 | .86 | -.20 |
| 2013 | • Doug Martin, T.B. | 116-409-1 | 10 | -12.2 | -34.8 | .75 | -.20 |
| 2010 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 116-495-5 | 0 | -4.3 | -28.3 | -.53 | -.27 |
| 2012 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 113-508-2 | 0 | -4.2 | -3.2 | .86 | .42 |
| 2010 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 113-485-6 | 0 | -4.1 | -17.1 | .04 | -.75 |
| 2010 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 112-553-4 | 1 | -5.3 | -36.1 | -.58 | .00 |
| 2011 | • Adrian Peterson, Min. | 110-498-6 | 4 | -8.0 | -32.2 | .29 | -.34 |
| 2017 | • Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 109-466-5 | 3 | -1.9 | -21.5 | -.67 | -.50 |
| 2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 109-546-5 | 1 | -.5 | -.7 | .08 | .00 |
| 2020 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 106-377-5 | 1 | -4.5 | -6.6 | .56 | -.30 |
| 2016 | LeGarrette Blount, N.E. | 106-389-5 | 0 | -3.7 | -7.6 | .33 | .18 |
| 2024 | • Jordan Mason, S.F. | 105-536-3 | 5 | -14.1 | -71.1 | .17 | -.60 |
| 2019 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 105-587-6 | 0 | -4.5 | -44.7 | -1.19 | -.38 |
| 2016 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 105-288-3 | 0 | -5.3 | -3.3 | .71 | -.33 |
| 2022 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 104-408-5 | 1 | 1.5 | 21.1 | .69 | -.27 |
| 2012 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 103-551-2 | 0 | -4.1 | -23.1 | -.09 | -.13 |
| 2010 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 103-406-2 | 0 | -.8 | -17.1 | -.71 | .05 |
| 2017 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 102-371-3 | 1 | 1.5 | 17.8 | .56 | .00 |
| 2017 | • Jay Ajayi, Mia.-Phi. | 102-391-0 | 2 | -8.6 | -24.6 | .71 | .11 |
| 2015 | • Matt Forte, Chi. | 102-438-1 | 3 | -5.9 | -30.1 | -.33 | .18 |
| 2013 | • Adrian Peterson, Min. | 102-483-5 | 2 | -.7 | -9.6 | -.31 | -.44 |
| 2012 | Stevan Ridley, N.E. | 102-490-4 | 0 | -3.3 | -27.7 | -.69 | -.07 |
| 2010 | • Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 102-406-1 | 2 | 1.5 | 20.8 | .68 | .24 |
| 2020 | • Joe Mixon, Cin. | 101-374-2 | 10 | -2.2 | -20.8 | -.70 | .60 |
| 2019 | • Marlon Mack, Ind. | 101-470-2 | 2 | -4.0 | -25.0 | -.40 | .27 |
| 2018 | • Todd Gurley, LAR | 101-415-7 | 2 | -3.0 | 9.9 | 1.28 | -.29 |
| 2016 | • Lamar Miller, Hou. | 101-371-0 | 2 | -1.6 | 3.8 | .53 | .56 |
| 2015 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 101-432-3 | 0 | .3 | 9.3 | .38 | .13 |
| 2011 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 101-401-1 | 1 | -3.0 | -13.6 | -.10 | .30 |
| 2018 | • Carlos Hyde, Cle.-Jac. | 100-348-5 | 2 | -12.0 | -44.8 | -.38 | -1.00 |
| 2017 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 100-405-4 | 1 | -2.1 | 9.0 | .98 | .10 |
| 2012 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 100-491-4 | 0 | 1.4 | 3.8 | -.14 | .02 |
| 2023 | Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 99-510-7 | 1 | -4.1 | -15.7 | .33 | -.76 |
| 2022 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 98-593-7 | 0 | -2.6 | -40.9 | -1.48 | -.98 |
| 2019 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 98-388-4 | 1 | .9 | 37.6 | 1.66 | .40 |
| 2013 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 98-514-3 | 0 | .0 | -3.4 | -.18 | -.05 |
| 2010 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 98-398-1 | 0 | 1.5 | -3.0 | -.43 | .25 |
| 2022 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 97-533-3 | 1 | -1.4 | -35.8 | -1.56 | .04 |
| 2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 97-609-4 | 0 | -3.5 | -56.5 | -2.18 | -.44 |
| 2013 | • Arian Foster, Hou. | 97-390-1 | 8 | -11.4 | -27.3 | 2.31 | -.20 |
| 2012 | • LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 97-437-1 | 4 | -4.7 | -29.8 | -.59 | -.06 |
| 2010 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 97-564-4 | 0 | 1.5 | -17.2 | -1.24 | .29 |
| 2022 | • Joe Mixon, Cin. | 96-302-1 | 3 | -6.5 | -3.5 | 1.35 | .47 |
| 2013 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 96-410-3 | 0 | -.6 | -5.0 | -.14 | .22 |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 96-420-2 | 0 | 3.7 | 68.5 | 2.28 | .51 |
| 2011 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 96-476-2 | 0 | 3.3 | 7.5 | -.38 | .15 |
| 2024 | Kyren Williams, LAR | 95-360-6 | 1 | 1.1 | 13.4 | .46 | -.47 |
| 2024 | Derrick Henry, Balt. | 95-572-6 | 0 | .2 | -2.0 | -.16 | -.37 |
| 2023 | Travis Etienne, Jac. | 95-396-3 | 0 | -4.7 | -28.2 | -.61 | .07 |
| 2019 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 95-512-1 | 1 | -2.0 | -38.4 | -1.62 | .00 |
| 2016 | • Carlos Hyde, S.F. | 95-377-6 | 3 | -3.8 | 1.0 | 1.04 | -1.20 |
| 2021 | • Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 94-368-1 | 4 | -.6 | -7.3 | -.28 | .18 |
| 2019 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 94-485-4 | 0 | -.3 | -5.3 | -.21 | -.44 |
| 2019 | Chris Carson, Sea. | 94-380-1 | 1 | -.4 | 9.0 | .58 | .40 |
| 2013 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 94-294-0 | 0 | -2.0 | 12.4 | 1.10 | .55 |
| 2011 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 94-400-3 | 0 | -1.7 | -6.3 | .06 | -.15 |
| 2021 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 93-386-3 | 1 | -.5 | -2.7 | -.03 | .31 |
| 2018 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 93-480-2 | 1 | 2.5 | -.6 | -.64 | .00 |
| 2018 | • Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 93-376-4 | 5 | -3.9 | -.5 | 1.05 | -.30 |
| 2016 | DeMarco Murray, Ten. | 93-461-3 | 0 | -.4 | -17.1 | -.83 | -.05 |
| 2016 | • Matt Forte, NYJ | 93-341-3 | 2 | -4.7 | -15.8 | .11 | -.16 |
| 2015 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 93-405-8 | 1 | -1.4 | -15.9 | -.57 | -1.30 |
| 2014 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 93-273-1 | 0 | 1.3 | 40.5 | 1.84 | .16 |
| 2010 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 93-421-1 | 0 | 3.3 | 2.2 | -.58 | .80 |
| 2020 | • Dalvin Cook, Min. | 92-489-7 | 2 | 6.0 | 20.9 | -.46 | -.40 |
| 2019 | • Dalvin Cook, Min. | 92-542-5 | 2 | -.8 | -42.5 | -2.14 | -.11 |
| 2013 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 92-397-3 | 1 | -1.7 | 9.6 | 1.01 | .30 |
| 2024 | Saquon Barkley, Phil. | 91-482-4 | 1 | 4.9 | 42.1 | .70 | .02 |
| 2024 | • Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 91-388-5 | 3 | -3.0 | -15.2 | -.16 | -.89 |
| 2022 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 91-490-3 | 0 | 2.6 | -1.1 | -.71 | .15 |
| 2016 | David Johnson, Ari. | 91-457-5 | 0 | .2 | -20.3 | -1.15 | .00 |
| 2014 | • Rashad Jennings, NYG | 91-396-2 | 5 | -5.5 | -38.7 | -1.15 | -.07 |
| 2013 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 91-394-0 | 1 | -7.2 | -33.9 | -.25 | .30 |
| 2012 | BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin. | 91-300-2 | 1 | .5 | 19.4 | .95 | .00 |
| 2011 | • Darren McFadden, Oak. | 91-519-3 | 9 | -7.2 | -56.3 | -1.39 | -.10 |
| 2010 | • Frank Gore, S.F. | 91-322-1 | 5 | .5 | 24.1 | 1.20 | .13 |
| 2010 | Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG | 91-449-3 | 0 | -1.4 | -18.3 | -.69 | -.15 |
| 2024 | Josh Jacobs, G.B. | 90-402-1 | 0 | -.4 | -3.2 | -.07 | .97 |
| 2021 | • Nick Chubb, Cle. | 90-523-4 | 3 | -2.7 | -22.8 | -.48 | -.36 |
| 2015 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 90-405-3 | 0 | .0 | 9.6 | .54 | -.33 |
| 2011 | • Fred Jackson, Buff. | 90-480-5 | 6 | -2.0 | -5.2 | .34 | -.80 |
—Ian Allan