L.A. CHARGERS (vs. Ind.):
The betting dollars suggest the Chargers will score about 25 points. They’re favored by 1.5, and with an over-under of 48.5. But that seems a little high, with them operating without both of their offensive tackles and both of their tailbacks.
While Los Angeles is 4-2, it hasn’t scored more than 2 TDs
since its opener. The Colts, meanwhile, rank 4th in scoring defense.
Indianapolis has allowed only 13 TDs in six games, while LA’s offense has
scored only 12 in its six, suggesting that 2 TDs looks a lot more likely than
3.
Kimani Vidal looks so-so. He’s a starting running back, which is
worth something. There aren’t a lot of them, and even fewer that can be counted
on to be primary runners. But Vidal is a pretty nominal guy (recently coming up
off the practice squad) and running behind a decimated offensive line. He ran
for 124 yards at Miami, which looks nice in the box score, but over half of his
yards came on 2 carries through holes that a golf cart could drive through.
Tossing out another 19-yarder that involved a missed tackle and he picked up 40
yards on his remaining 15 carries, with lots of stuffs around the line of
scrimmage. That was against the defense ranking last against the run. The
Colts, on the other hand, are more of an average defense against the run – 12th
in yards, but they’ve helped by getting leads in a bunch of games. Omarion
Hampton has averaged more than 3.7 yards per carry in only one of his five
games; he’s better than Vidal, and he averaged only 47 rushing yards in those
four games. And we start to get a feel for more realistic expectations. He
should catch a few balls, at least (3 for 14 at Miami). Hassan Haskins should
log a quarter or a third of the work, but his 11 carries the last two weeks
have generated only 27 yards.
Justin Herbert will have to carry the
offense, given the situation with the line. He’s averaging 249 passing and 26
rushing yards so far, with 10 touchdowns. He’s tailed off some recently, with
only 203 and 210 passing yards against the Giants and Commanders – unable to
overcome the pass protection issues. Here he’s facing a defense that just
allowed Jacoby Brissett to pass for 320 yards and 2 TDs, but that was helped
along by the Colts having to play without both of their cornerbacks (Charvarius
Ward got hurt in warmups). Both might be available this week. But a decent
situation for Herbert, with Indy not having a dynamic pass rush and having let
Stafford pass for 375 yards and 3 TDs a few weeks ago. The Colts rank 21st
against the pass, allowing 249 passing yards per week, with just short of 2 TD
passes. Those kind of stats look possible.
Quentin Johnston (hamstring)
will need to be evaluated later in the week. He was a limited participant in
practice all of last week, which bodes well, but those kind of injuries can be
problematic, making it possible he sits out a second game. If so, should result
in busier roles for the other receivers. With no Johnston, Ladd McConkey put
together his best game of the season on Sunday – 7 catches for 100 yards and a
touchdown, with a big catch to set up the winning field goal. Keenan Allen comes
off his worst game, but he’s been successful working with Herbert for a lot of
years. Allen averages a team-high 5.5 catches per week, with 3 TDs. And if
there’s no Johnston, those in larger leagues who are desperate for warm body
receiver help could think about Tre Harris. He took Johnston’s spot last
week, catching 4 passes for 27 yards. (Harris actually was on the field for a
lot more plays than Allen.) Johnston thus far is averaging 5.2 catches for 75
yards, with 4 TDs in five games – he leads them in receiving yards and
touchdowns.
Rookie Oronde Gadsden is becoming rosterable. He brings
more pass-catching potential to the table than their other tight ends. He
caught 5 passes in limited playing time against Denver, then got on the field
for about half of their plays the next two weeks (albeit with just 3 catches).
At Miami, Gadsden was on the field for three quarters of their plays, catching
7 passes for 68 yards.
Cameron Dicker tied for 2nd in scoring among
kickers last year, with 150 points, and he’s on pace to finish with the exact
same total. Six weeks in, he’s got a pair of 4-point duds, but he’s averaged
11.3 in his other games. This looks like a reasonable enough matchup. The Colts
have allowed multiple field goals in four straight games (after not allowing
any in their first two).
The Chargers Defense looks like a lesser
option. It currently ranks in the top 10 in both sacks and interceptions, but
the Colts haven’t been allowing much of either, through a combination of scheme
and a talented offensive line. They’ve allowed a league-low 5 sacks, and Daniel
Jones has thrown only 3 interceptions. The Broncos are on pace to break the
all-time record for sacks, but they got only 1 sack at Indianapolis. Derius
Davis is one of the better kick returners but has been out with a knee injury
since Week 3.
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