Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Waiting on scoreless DeVonta Smith. What's going on with Joe Mixon? Should the Rams plug in a new running back? And more.
Question 1
I’m in a TD-only league, and DeVonta Smith has been basically worthless. My issue with cutting bait with proven vets (he’s scored a consistent 7, 7, and 8 TDs the last three seasons) is that no matter how slow they may start, by year end their stats generally revert back to the mean. Do we have reason to believe Smith will finish with his typical 7ish TDs, (in which case he’d arguably be even more valuable from here on out as he has some catchin’ up to do), or to believe the Philly offense just isn’t going to provide WR value this season, and move on from Smith in favor of someone like Golden or Downs?
Matt Tinker (Orleans, VT)
To me, Downs isn’t in the conversation. I realize he’s the only one of the three who scored last week, but there are too many other options in that offense. I have little confidence he’ll even be one of the top 3 touchdown catchers on his own team (Pittman, Warren, Pierce). To me, the choice is better hoping things click in for either Smith or Golden. With Smith, you’re getting less other competition for targets. It’s basically him, Brown and Goedert (who’s been getting more looks than in the past). I’ve got Golden higher on my board. He hasn’t actually scored a touchdown yet as a pro, but he’s been coming on, with receptions of 34-plus yards three games in a row – had a real nice sideline grab on a downfield ball last week. And he’s real good on end-arounds, carrying the ball every week. I’m not giving up on Golden.
Question 2
What's up with Joe Mixon? Is he gonna play this season or what?
Jonathan Brater (Ann Arbor, MI)
It’s supposedly a foot or ankle injury, and it happened away from the team. He was healthy at the end of last season, and the injury didn’t occur at one of the team’s offseason workouts. They placed him on the non-football injury list during training camp, and he’s remained there. How an injury of this seriousness occurred, I have no idea.
GM Nick Caserio suggested last week that an update on Mixon might be coming. “In a few weeks, we’ll probably have a better idea,” he said. “He’s making progress. I wouldn’t put a particular timetable on it. … Once we kinda get to that period, probably have a better sense of which way it’s gonna go for the duration of the year.” Separately, a local reporter said a few weeks back that he doesn’t expect Mixon to play in 2025.
Question 3
I’m struggling a bit to understand the rankings for two particular players and would love to hear some commentary to compare/contrast them: Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Woody Marks. On the one hand, you seem to be VERY high on JCM in PPR, above even Kyren and Bucky (Bucky discount for injury?). He is still splitting work and catching no more than 2 passes per game. What signs are you looking at that give you such optimism? On the flip side, Marks’ rushing opportunities over the last three have been comparable to JCM, and the Texans have shown more of a willingness to feature him as a pass catcher. Both have one breakout game. But Marks barely cracks the top 40.
Aaron Vander Vorst (West Fargo, ND)
I like JCM a lot more than Marks. With one, we have the featured running back on the team that’s leading the league in rushing. They don’t have much else – Rodriguez, McNichols, those are spot-duty guys who wouldn’t even be backups on the vast majority of teams. Washington is averaging a league-high 151 rushing yards; it averaged 154 last year, with 25 rushing touchdowns. They’ll be scoring rushing touchdowns most weeks, and Croskey-Merritt will be scoring most of them (Jayden Daniels is a great runner, but he scored only 6 of those 25 rushing touchdowns last year and has had a scare with a knee injury). JCM, of course, is really raw, as evidenced by a couple of key bungles on Monday night. And I don’t see him being a factor in the passing game; he’s caught 2, 2 and 1 passes in his last three. (I don’t see him doing much more than 2 catches per game.) But I think that gets us well ahead of Woody Marks. Marks is sharing time with Nick Chubb, and for a team that can’t really run the ball much at all – perhaps the worst OL in the league. Marks is a more accomplished pass catcher; he had 261 receptions in five years of college ball, which I assume is a record for a running back. But I haven’t seen a big commitment to use him in that way. He had a 4-catch game against Tennessee but that’s his only game with more than 1 catch. For pass catching, I see Marks as a guy who’ll probably be about the same as JCM, averaging about 2 catches per week.
Question 4
Who will be hurt more by the number 1 player returning: Pickens, Dowdle, or Worthy?
Robert Cummings (Los Angeles, CA)
Pickens has had games with 8-9 catches the last three weeks. He should be moving back down to 4-5 catches with Lamb back. Then again, Dowdle has gone over 200 yards in back-to-back games. Chuba Hubbard returned to practice today, and Dave Canales says they’ll be a one-two punch going forward.
Question 5
Given that Kyren Williams fumbled away the game against the Niners, is there a risk that — despite his huge game — we’ll see more of Blake Corum?
John Caldwell (Meridian, ID)
I don’t think the Rams will be pulling the plug on Williams anytime soon. He’s a really good player. Did you see that fourth-down catch in Baltimore? And statistically, he’s been phenomenal in short-yardage situations. (In the 2023-24 seasons, he was good on 36 of 41 carries when the Rams needed to pick up a yard – a better conversion rate than even Jalen Hurts). The 49ers game, I will admit, also included Williams coming up short on a key fourth-down play, but I think he’s good in those situations. At the same time, Corum looks like a good back. He’s averaging a yard more per carry than Williams. And he’s getting more run as a second this year, averaging 30 rushing yards in his last five games. With this being tackle football, I expect Corum will get a chance to start at some point, and I don’t expect there to be any dropoff when he’s in there. While I don’t see fumbles as an issue, it’s tough for any running back to handle the physical grind of playing the position week after week. In the last four years, only 21 running backs have started all 17 games.
| RUNNING BACKS STARTING 17 GAMES (last 4 yrs) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rushing | Receiving | PPR | Rk |
| 2021 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 332-1811-18 | 40-360-2 | 377.1 | 1 |
| 2021 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 307-1200-7 | 74-467-3 | 300.7 | 3 |
| 2021 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 237-1002-10 | 47-287-2 | 254.1 | 7 |
| 2022 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 204-915-13 | 107-722-5 | 378.7 | 1 |
| 2022 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 340-1653-12 | 53-400-0 | 330.3 | 3 |
| 2022 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 302-1525-12 | 27-239-1 | 283.4 | 6 |
| 2022 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 213-1121-2 | 59-395-5 | 254.6 | 7 |
| 2022 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 264-1173-8 | 39-295-2 | 245.8 | 10 |
| 2022 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 272-1034-7 | 41-229-3 | 227.5 | 14 |
| 2023 | Travis Etienne, Jac. | 267-1008-11 | 58-476-1 | 282.4 | 3 |
| 2023 | Rachaad White, T.B. | 272-990-6 | 64-549-3 | 271.9 | 4 |
| 2023 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 257-1034-9 | 52-376-3 | 267.0 | 6 |
| 2023 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 280-1167-12 | 28-214-0 | 246.8 | 9 |
| 2023 | Tony Pollard, Dall. | 252-1005-6 | 55-311-0 | 224.6 | 14 |
| 2023 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 255-1035-8 | 29-170-0 | 197.5 | 23 |
| 2024 | Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 304-1456-14 | 61-431-1 | 341.7 | 3 |
| 2024 | Derrick Henry, Balt. | 325-1921-16 | 19-193-2 | 338.4 | 4 |
| 2024 | Josh Jacobs, G.B. | 301-1329-15 | 36-342-1 | 299.1 | 6 |
| 2024 | Aaron Jones, Min. | 255-1138-5 | 51-408-2 | 247.6 | 12 |
| 2024 | D'Andre Swift, Chi. | 253-959-6 | 42-386-0 | 214.5 | 19 |
| 2024 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 263-1043-6 | 36-283-0 | 204.6 | 22 |
Question 6
Would you trade Goedert and a backup like Ridley for Mark Andrews and DeVonta Smith? Was approached about this deal. Numbers seem equitable but Smith and Andrews leave a lot to be desired this year.
Mike Conway (Nanuet, NY)
Three of the four are depressed assets – everybody but Goedert.
According to my projections, there’s not a lot of difference between the two pairs. Goedert-Ridley a little higher in standard scoring; Smith-Andrews a little higher in PPR.
Andrews had that great game against Detroit, catching 6 passes for 91 yards and 2 TDs. I expect he’ll be just fine when Jackson comes back from the bye healthy.