PITTSBURGH (vs. G.B.): The Steelers rank 12th in scoring, but it’s up in the air whether their offense is any good. It ranks only 25th in yards.

The betting public seems to think not, with the Steelers opening as a 3-point underdog, despite playing at home, with a Hall of Fame quarterback getting his first crack at his original team. Green Bay’s defense is similarly somewhat unknown. It’s 6th in yards and 10th in points, but it hasn’t done anything notable since opening the season with impressive wins over Detroit and Washington. The Packers gave up 40 points at Dallas, and the Cardinals had them on the ropes last week. The over-under total suggests the Steelers will score about 21 points.

Aaron Rodgers will be up for this one, it’s safe to say, and it makes sense to let him go to work. Green Bay has a credible defense (perhaps a good one) but it hasn’t been as good against the pass, particularly recently. Those strong performances against Jared Goff and Jayden Daniels happened a long time ago. More recently, Jacoby Brissett passed for 279 yards and 2 TDs, and Dak Prescott torched them for 319 and 3 TDs. Rodgers is not playing at a Prescott level, but he’s completing 69 percent, and they’re finishing drives with touchdown passes. Of the 17 touchdowns scored by this offense, all but 3 have come on passes. It was similar last year with the Jets, with the team finishing with 31 TD passes versus 8 TDs on runs. Pittsburgh should score 2-3 TDs in this game, and they’ll all involve Rodgers’ right arm. He’s not as compelling for yards, averaging only 212 per game. And he doesn’t run like he used to. But given the dynamics of the matchup, he’ll be coming in looking to put up good numbers.

Jaylen Warren ran for 127 yards last week, but best to simply ignore that game in regards to Week 8. He ran for 47-52 yards in each of his three previous games, which is more in line with what to expect. Green Bay ranks No. 2 in run defense; while it’s not quite that good (Javonte Williams ran for 85 against them), it’s significantly better than what the Steelers were playing against in Cincinnati last week. Very unlikely that Warren runs for 70, and there’s that trend of the Steelers tending to score everything on passes (he hasn’t run for a touchdown all year). Warren looks more appealing when the receiving production is mixed in; he’s averaging 3.4 catches for 37 receiving yards, with a touchdown in that capacity. But overall production falls well short of the big-time backs.

The Steelers will mix in Kenneth Gainwell, but he’s more of a change-of-pace rather than a co-starter. He ran for 99 yards at Ireland (when Warren was sidelined) but he’s run for 14-22 yards in all five of his other games. In his five games in that backup role, he’s averaged 3 catches, but for only 15 yards. And just the one touchdown.

The Steelers also drafted, recall, Kaleb Johnson. He might become a starter at some point. But that’s probably more likely to occur in 2026 or 2027 rather than this year. He had the game-losing gaffe on the kickoff against Seattle, and he’s carried only 14 times for 36 yards, looking for now to be well behind Warren but also Gainwell.

DK Metcalf is making big catches downfield; he’s had a reception of 25-plus yards in two thirds of his games. But he’s not a polished or crafty route runner. He’s not a Davante Adams or Jordy Nelson type guy who’s dominating the touches in clutch situations. Instead, Metcalf is averaging only 3.7 catches per game. At 18.5 yards per catch, that measures out to 68 yards per week, and with 4 of the team’s 14 touchdowns. That’s not franchise-type production in 2025, but he’s been solid enough. And with it looking like an on week for the passing game, best to roll him out there and let him do his thing.

The Steelers are using three tight ends, and they scored all 4 of the team’s touchdowns last week. Pat Freiermuthwas the Week 7 headliner, with 5 catches for 111 yards and 2 TDs, but at halftime of that game, it looked safe to leave him on the waiver wire. Prior to Cincinnati, Freiermuth was sitting at 8 catches for 76 yards in five games, with no touchdowns. He didn’t play much in the two previous games, with the Steelers wanting to get Darnell Washingtonon the field more, adding another big blocker for the running game. Washington has logged regular snaps in each of the last three games, with 3 catches in each of them (including the one touchdown). And they’ve got Jonnu Smith,who’s been their busiest tight end, but with most of his catches being short ones that don’t go anywhere. He’s averaging 3.3 catches per game, but he hasn’t reach 30 yards in a game. He’s caught 2 TDs. If you can get a package deal on these tight ends, go for it. But it will be tough to sell that concept on your league’s owners. The Packers have allowed as many touchdowns to tight ends as to wide receivers, making it look like one of these guys will hit.

Calvin Austin likely will return, but he's too sporadic to merit consideration. He’s caught 10 passes for 139 yards and 2 TDs in his four games.

Chris Boswelllooks like a middle-of-the-pack option this week. He’s averaged 7.7 points so far (just above the league average of 7.4), but he’s working against a defense that’s allowing only 6.8 against the position. The footing on Pittsburgh’s field has been terrible in recent weeks, in part because the college team is also playing on it (and Pitt is at home against North Carolina State on Saturday). But Boswell is one of the best in the business, and the Packers have allowed multiple field goals in all three of their games on the road.

The Steelers Defense has had some issues, allowing a league-high 282 passing yards per game, but it grades out more favorably for our purposes. Only two defenses are averaging more sacks, and only two are averaging more takeaways. A big haul of either becomes less likely this week, with the Packers tending to keep their quarterback out of harm’s way. They’ve allowed only 10 sacks all year, and only Kansas City has fewer turnovers. The Steelers have rookie free agent KeShawn Williams returning kicks, but he hasn’t had any notable returns yet (preseason or real games) and wasn’t a notable returner in college.

Haven't ordered yet? BUY THE MONTH OF OCTOBER!

Already a subscriber? VIEW IT NOW!