If anybody can slow down the Colts, maybe it’s the schedule makers. They’ve got a bunch of harder defenses coming up on their schedule.
That includes a pair against the Texans, who lead the league in scoring defense. And it includes games at Kansas City and Seattle.
Looking at just the next five games for each team (what’s right in front of us), I see 20 points per game, on average for defenses that are in the near future for the Colts. That’s the fewest in the league.
There are five offenses who’s next five games are against opponents allowing a cumulative average of 21 points per game or less, and four of them have notable offense for our own selfish fantasy purposes – Colts, Bucs, Bills and Kansas City.
If you want to try and ride the strength of schedule wave, better to be looking at Ravens, Patriots, Bears, Chargers and Eagles, who are all up near the top.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (next 5 G, pts) | |
|---|---|
| Team | W |
| Cleveland | 26.5 |
| Baltimore | 26.5 |
| New England | 26.1 |
| Chicago | 26.0 |
| Miami | 25.8 |
| LA Chargers | 24.9 |
| Philadelphia | 24.5 |
| Cincinnati | 24.1 |
| NY Jets | 24.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 24.0 |
| Detroit | 23.9 |
| Minnesota | 23.8 |
| Green Bay | 23.7 |
| Las Vegas | 23.4 |
| Arizona | 23.1 |
| Seattle | 23.1 |
| Atlanta | 23.0 |
| Jacksonville | 22.6 |
| San Francisco | 22.5 |
| LA Rams | 22.4 |
| New Orleans | 22.4 |
| Washington | 22.0 |
| Houston | 22.0 |
| Dallas | 21.8 |
| NY Giants | 21.6 |
| Denver | 21.5 |
| Carolina | 21.3 |
| Buffalo | 21.0 |
| Kansas City | 21.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 20.7 |
| Tennessee | 20.2 |
| Indianapolis | 20.0 |
Looking at those same next five games, only focusing on wins and losses rather than points, the Ravens are again right up next the top. Their next five are against teams that are currently 9-25-0. Dolphins, Vikings, Browns, Jets, Bengals. They may be 2-5, but my hunch is the Ravens will still be winning the AFC North.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (next 5 G, wins) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| Baltimore | 9 | 25 | 0 | .265 |
| Cleveland | 9 | 25 | 0 | .265 |
| Miami | 9 | 24 | 0 | .273 |
| Jacksonville | 11 | 23 | 0 | .324 |
| NY Jets | 12 | 21 | 0 | .364 |
| New England | 13 | 21 | 0 | .382 |
| Denver | 13 | 21 | 0 | .382 |
| Seattle | 14 | 20 | 0 | .412 |
| San Francisco | 15 | 20 | 0 | .429 |
| Atlanta | 16 | 19 | 0 | .457 |
| LA Chargers | 16 | 18 | 0 | .471 |
| Buffalo | 16 | 17 | 0 | .485 |
| Tampa Bay | 17 | 17 | 0 | .500 |
| Tennessee | 17 | 17 | 0 | .500 |
| Dallas | 18 | 17 | 0 | .514 |
| Chicago | 17 | 16 | 0 | .515 |
| Las Vegas | 18 | 16 | 1 | .529 |
| New Orleans | 18 | 16 | 0 | .529 |
| Detroit | 17 | 15 | 1 | .530 |
| Indianapolis | 17 | 15 | 0 | .531 |
| Green Bay | 19 | 15 | 0 | .559 |
| Washington | 19 | 15 | 0 | .559 |
| Carolina | 18 | 14 | 1 | .561 |
| LA Rams | 20 | 15 | 0 | .571 |
| Cincinnati | 18 | 13 | 0 | .581 |
| Houston | 20 | 14 | 0 | .588 |
| Minnesota | 19 | 12 | 1 | .609 |
| Kansas City | 20 | 12 | 1 | .621 |
| Philadelphia | 20 | 11 | 2 | .636 |
| Pittsburgh | 21 | 12 | 0 | .636 |
| Arizona | 22 | 12 | 1 | .643 |
| NY Giants | 23 | 9 | 1 | .712 |
—Ian Allan