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Updated strength of schedule

Patriots could ride schedule to AFC East title

With seven weeks in the books, it’s a good time to check in on strength of schedule – both what’s happened so far, and what’s to come.

Based on what teams have done so far, the Bills have played the easiest schedule. Their four wins, remarkably, have come against teams that are currently 3-24 – Saints, Dolphins, Jets, Ravens. I believe Baltimore will turn things around, but those other teams probably all will be picking in the top 5 of next year’s draft.

Other teams that have played easy schedules: Patriots and Panthers.

Teams that have played the hardest schedules, meanwhile, including the Eagles, Falcons, Jaguars and Cincinnati. Jacksonville, for one, has played those three 5-2 teams in the NFC West. (On the charts below, I’m assuming Seattle hangs onto its 11-point lead in the second half of the MNF game).

In the chart below, I’m showing the combined records of opponents in their other games. With the Bills, as an example, their opponents are 11-29 – 2-4 against the Bills, and 9-25 against the rest of the league.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Wks 1-7)
TeamWLTPct
Buffalo9250.265
New England15250.375
Carolina15251.378
Cleveland16211.434
Chicago15191.443
Denver19230.452
Indianapolis19230.452
Pittsburgh16190.457
Miami19220.463
Green Bay17190.472
Dallas19210.475
LA Chargers20220.476
Houston17180.486
Washington18192.487
NY Jets19201.488
Kansas City20210.488
NY Giants20211.488
Baltimore17170.500
Tennessee21200.512
Arizona21191.524
New Orleans21190.525
Seattle21190.525
Las Vegas22190.537
Minnesota18150.545
LA Rams22180.550
Detroit21171.551
San Francisco23180.561
Tampa Bay23170.575
Cincinnati23151.603
Jacksonville25160.610
Atlanta21130.618
Philadelphia25151.622

For games that are yet to come, the Patriots stand out. Their final 10 games are against teams that are currently 21-46, making their schedule (on paper) the easiest in the league. They’re 5-2 right now, and the schedule indicates there’s little chance of them falling apart and not making the postseason.

The Bengals and Jaguars have played two of the hardest schedules so far, but current records suggest their remaining schedules will be among the easiest. This is just what the numbers say, of course; the Ravens are currently 1-5, but they could be a difficult opponent when they play their two against Cincinnati.

The Giants, Cardinals and Panthers, meanwhile, project to play the hardest remaining schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Wks 8-18)
TeamWLTPct
New England21460.313
Cincinnati24410.369
Jacksonville29400.420
NY Jets29380.433
Miami29370.439
Cleveland29370.439
Tampa Bay30380.441
Atlanta35420.455
New Orleans31370.456
Baltimore33381.465
Buffalo35400.467
San Francisco33350.485
Denver32342.485
Pittsburgh35361.493
LA Chargers33331.500
Dallas35340.507
Indianapolis34320.515
Kansas City35321.522
Philadelphia34312.522
Las Vegas36321.529
Tennessee37320.536
LA Rams37320.536
Chicago38322.542
Seattle37310.544
Washington38301.558
Green Bay40310.563
Houston43330.566
Minnesota40303.568
Detroit36272.569
Carolina38281.575
Arizona40271.596
NY Giants39262.597

—Ian Allan

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