With seven weeks in the books, it’s a good time to check in on strength of schedule – both what’s happened so far, and what’s to come.
Based on what teams have done so far, the Bills have played the easiest schedule. Their four wins, remarkably, have come against teams that are currently 3-24 – Saints, Dolphins, Jets, Ravens. I believe Baltimore will turn things around, but those other teams probably all will be picking in the top 5 of next year’s draft.
Other teams that have played easy schedules: Patriots and Panthers.
Teams that have played the hardest schedules, meanwhile, including the Eagles, Falcons, Jaguars and Cincinnati. Jacksonville, for one, has played those three 5-2 teams in the NFC West. (On the charts below, I’m assuming Seattle hangs onto its 11-point lead in the second half of the MNF game).
In the chart below, I’m showing the combined records of opponents in their other games. With the Bills, as an example, their opponents are 11-29 – 2-4 against the Bills, and 9-25 against the rest of the league.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Wks 1-7) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Buffalo | 9 | 25 | 0 | .265 |
New England | 15 | 25 | 0 | .375 |
Carolina | 15 | 25 | 1 | .378 |
Cleveland | 16 | 21 | 1 | .434 |
Chicago | 15 | 19 | 1 | .443 |
Denver | 19 | 23 | 0 | .452 |
Indianapolis | 19 | 23 | 0 | .452 |
Pittsburgh | 16 | 19 | 0 | .457 |
Miami | 19 | 22 | 0 | .463 |
Green Bay | 17 | 19 | 0 | .472 |
Dallas | 19 | 21 | 0 | .475 |
LA Chargers | 20 | 22 | 0 | .476 |
Houston | 17 | 18 | 0 | .486 |
Washington | 18 | 19 | 2 | .487 |
NY Jets | 19 | 20 | 1 | .488 |
Kansas City | 20 | 21 | 0 | .488 |
NY Giants | 20 | 21 | 1 | .488 |
Baltimore | 17 | 17 | 0 | .500 |
Tennessee | 21 | 20 | 0 | .512 |
Arizona | 21 | 19 | 1 | .524 |
New Orleans | 21 | 19 | 0 | .525 |
Seattle | 21 | 19 | 0 | .525 |
Las Vegas | 22 | 19 | 0 | .537 |
Minnesota | 18 | 15 | 0 | .545 |
LA Rams | 22 | 18 | 0 | .550 |
Detroit | 21 | 17 | 1 | .551 |
San Francisco | 23 | 18 | 0 | .561 |
Tampa Bay | 23 | 17 | 0 | .575 |
Cincinnati | 23 | 15 | 1 | .603 |
Jacksonville | 25 | 16 | 0 | .610 |
Atlanta | 21 | 13 | 0 | .618 |
Philadelphia | 25 | 15 | 1 | .622 |
For games that are yet to come, the Patriots stand out. Their final 10 games are against teams that are currently 21-46, making their schedule (on paper) the easiest in the league. They’re 5-2 right now, and the schedule indicates there’s little chance of them falling apart and not making the postseason.
The Bengals and Jaguars have played two of the hardest schedules so far, but current records suggest their remaining schedules will be among the easiest. This is just what the numbers say, of course; the Ravens are currently 1-5, but they could be a difficult opponent when they play their two against Cincinnati.
The Giants, Cardinals and Panthers, meanwhile, project to play the hardest remaining schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Wks 8-18) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
New England | 21 | 46 | 0 | .313 |
Cincinnati | 24 | 41 | 0 | .369 |
Jacksonville | 29 | 40 | 0 | .420 |
NY Jets | 29 | 38 | 0 | .433 |
Miami | 29 | 37 | 0 | .439 |
Cleveland | 29 | 37 | 0 | .439 |
Tampa Bay | 30 | 38 | 0 | .441 |
Atlanta | 35 | 42 | 0 | .455 |
New Orleans | 31 | 37 | 0 | .456 |
Baltimore | 33 | 38 | 1 | .465 |
Buffalo | 35 | 40 | 0 | .467 |
San Francisco | 33 | 35 | 0 | .485 |
Denver | 32 | 34 | 2 | .485 |
Pittsburgh | 35 | 36 | 1 | .493 |
LA Chargers | 33 | 33 | 1 | .500 |
Dallas | 35 | 34 | 0 | .507 |
Indianapolis | 34 | 32 | 0 | .515 |
Kansas City | 35 | 32 | 1 | .522 |
Philadelphia | 34 | 31 | 2 | .522 |
Las Vegas | 36 | 32 | 1 | .529 |
Tennessee | 37 | 32 | 0 | .536 |
LA Rams | 37 | 32 | 0 | .536 |
Chicago | 38 | 32 | 2 | .542 |
Seattle | 37 | 31 | 0 | .544 |
Washington | 38 | 30 | 1 | .558 |
Green Bay | 40 | 31 | 0 | .563 |
Houston | 43 | 33 | 0 | .566 |
Minnesota | 40 | 30 | 3 | .568 |
Detroit | 36 | 27 | 2 | .569 |
Carolina | 38 | 28 | 1 | .575 |
Arizona | 40 | 27 | 1 | .596 |
NY Giants | 39 | 26 | 2 | .597 |
—Ian Allan