N.Y. GIANTS (at Chi.): The Giants are 2-7, but with a fun offense. Since switching quarterbacks, they’ve scored 19 touchdowns in six games – three games with 2 TDs, and three with at least 3.
They’re on the road this week, but against a similarly
stat-friendly defense. The Bears have allowed 26 touchdowns in their eight
games (one game with 1, another with 2, but at least 3 TDs in 75 percent of
their outings). Such stats make it look like New York will probably will be
keeping the stats flowing. The over-under for this game is 47.5 points (with
the Bears favored by 3.5), but that seems low, given the way these teams have
been playing.
It’s a little unnerving relying on Jaxson Dart. He’s a
rookie, and starting for a 2-7 team. He’s passed for fewer than 200 yards in
two thirds of his starts. But he keeps cashing for those willing to use him –
five games in a row he’s had his hand in multiple touchdowns. He’s averaged 213
passing and 39 rushing yards in his last five, with 9 TD passes and 4 TD runs.
The mobility (and willingness to use it) is key; the way typical fantasy
leagues are scored, it’s like he’s picking up an extra 80 passing yards and a TD
pass per week. He’s putting up rushing stats right now that are better than
even Hurts, Allen and Jackson. He’s run for touchdowns four games in a row, and
he’s run for over 50 yards in two thirds of his starts. The passing stats
aren’t as impressive, with him finishing under 200 yards in two thirds of his
starts, but he’s putting the ball in the end zone. And this week, he’s facing a
defense that just let Joe Flacco pass for 470 yards and 4 TDs. The Bears have
allowed 20 touchdown passes. The only defenses that have allowed more are both
on byes this week (Bengals, Cowboys).
The running backs, Tyrone Tracy and
Devin Singletary, look underwhelming. There’s no clear featured
guy. Tracy started last week, but Singletary outplayed him and was on the field
more. And there’s the issue of Dart tending to score the rushing touchdowns on
his own. That’s unfortunate, with Chicago having a bottom-10 run defense. The
Ravens two weeks ago had Lamar Jackson on the sidelines but still ran for 177
yards. The Raiders ran for 240 against them earlier in the year.
Colston
Loveland went for 118 yards and 2 TDs last week, but the Giants might have the
more productive Penn State tight end in this game. Theo Johnson has a
strong rapport with Dart, particularly in the red zone. Dart has thrown 10
touchdowns in six games, and Johnson has caught half of them. With the Bears on
pace to give up 42-plus touchdown passes, we might reasonably assume Dart will
throw a couple of touchdowns, and that would make Johnson look awfully likely
to catch one. The general workload numbers aren’t as impressive (Johnson has
averaged 3.3 catches for 32 yards in Dart’s six starts).
Wan’Dale
Robinson should be busy. He’s the guy Dart is most comfortable throwing to.
In Robinson’s last four games, he’s averaged 6.8 catches for 69 yards, albeit
with just one touchdown. No worries about him disappearing from the game plan.
Darius Slayton is supposed to be more of an outside receiver who gets
downfield for big gains. That’s the theory; he’s been a good deep threat in the
past. But it’s not playing out that way. He had a 24-yard catch last week, but
it’s been his first reception of 20-plus since Week 2. Robinson is making more
downfield plays than Slayton. Slayton in four games with Dart has averaged 3.3
catches for 41 yards. He has not scored a touchdown all year.
The Giants
signed journeyman Ray-Ray McCloud and 10 days later had him on the field
for 91 percent of their plays, which is hard to believe. (One catch for 5 yards
in his debut.)
With the way the Giants have been moving the ball, it seems
like Graham Gano should be a decent kicker, but that hasn’t happened.
Since switching quarterbacks, New York has scored only 29 kicking points in six
games. Chicago is allowing 7.4 kicking points per week, which is close to
average, but only 6 and 2 in its last two home games.
The Giants Defense is
a lesser option. Caleb Williams took 68 sacks as a rookie, but they’re
protecting him with a better running game now, along with getting the ball out
of his hands quicker. He’s taken only 14 sacks. The season-long numbers suggest
this is the 2nd-worst matchup on the board for turnovers (the Giants have only
4 interceptions and 2 fumbles, exactly the same as Chicago’s offense). New York
has Gunner Olszewski returning kicks, but he doesn’t seem to have enough juice
to take one back the distance.
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