CAROLINA (at G.B.):
Carolina should be headed for a poor outing in this one. It’s got a lesser, limited offense, and its good games have tended to come at home and against modest opponents – 27-30 points against the Falcons, Dolphins and Cowboys.
**This snippet was first published on October 29.
The
Panthers have scored more than 13 points in only one other game. The Packers,
meanwhile, have a good defense. They got involved in a 40-40 tie at Dallas, but
they’ve allowed only 10 touchdowns in their other six games, with no other
opponent scoring more than 2. All of which makes 1-2 TDs look like the proper range
for this one.
Dave Canales is coming around to the idea that Rico Dowdle needs
to play more. He had the two games with over 200 combined yards. Since coming
back, Dowdle has come off the bench, sharing time with Chuba Hubbard.
Hubbard has been on the field for a few more plays, while Dowdle has averaged
over 2 more yards per carry in both games. “That’s something we’re looking at,”
Canales says. “We cannot ignore the fact that Rico has made an impact when he’s
been out there. So these are things that we’re talking through as a staff, and
we’ll make that decision as the week goes on.” Sounds like, in other words,
that Dowdle will be starting, with Hubbard demoted for now into more of a
backup role – would not be a surprise if Dowdle gets twice as many carries in
this game. But the upcoming matchup isn’t great, with Green Bay ranking No. 2
in run defense. The last notable run-game matchups were in the first two weeks
(Lions, Commanders) but it seems like a tough run defense. The Panthers have
run the ball well enough, on the other hand, that it’s possible they’ll have a
top-10 run day anyway. They ran for over 215 yards against both Miami and
Dallas and have run for 110-129 yards in their last four other games. They can
scheme things up nicely, and Dowdle has been very effective four games in a
row. Combined, Dowdle and Hubbard are averaging 3.5 catches per game, so
probably 2-3 receptions for Dowdle.
Bryce Young (ankle) is supposed to
practice on Wednesday, so we’ll assume for now that he'll be playing, switching
to an Andy Dalton projection on Friday, if necessary. He’ll be working against
a defense that’s been pretty average against the pass. The Packers are allowing
229 passing yards per game, and with 12 TDs. Other than Cleveland, the last
five teams who’ve played against this defense have all thrown multiple
touchdowns. But that kind of production seems unlikely for Young, given how
they’ve been trying to play. They’re trying to run it. He’s finished with fewer
than 200 passing yards in all but one of his starts, and they’ve thrown
multiple touchdowns in only half of their eight games. Young was sneaky mobile
last year, running for touchdowns in 5 of his last six games, but that looks
unlikely. He’s working his way back from a sprained ankle and hasn’t been
running much this year anyway, with only one touchdown all year and no games
with more than 10 rushing yards since the opener.
Tetairoa McMillan is
having a solid rookie year, albeit not up on the level of Emeka Egbuka. The
offense isn’t as good. But he’s been fine, averaging 4.6 catches for 64 yards,
with 2 TDs in eight games. Call this an average matchup (if the Packers get a
big lead, perhaps there will be more passing).
Xavier Legette’s last
game with Bryce Young was his best – 9 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown.
But otherwise, Legette has been underwhelming, catching only 10 passes for 67
yards and a touchdown in his last five other games. At some point, he may be
passed in relevancy by Jalen Coker. Coker was more effective when they
were rookies and recently returned from an injury – 3 catches for 36 yards on
Sunday.
The Panthers probably will use three different tight ends. In the
last two games, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Tommy Tremble and Mitchell Evans have
all caught multiple passes, but for under 25 yards. Sanders was the starter
before he got hurt and seems to be moving back to that status, playing more
than the others on Sunday, and with 3 catches for 19 yards. But he’s posted
relevant numbers in only one game (catching 7 for 54 in Week 2). Tremble and
Evans combined for 3 TDs when Sanders missed three games. Unlikely that any of
them hit on Sunday.
Ryan Fitzgerald has been up and down, but with a
method to the madness. He’s scored 40 points in four wins but just 12 points in
four losses. This upcoming game looks far more likely to wind up in the latter
category.
The Panthers Defense should finish with bottom-10 numbers.
It’s a lesser unit anyway, and it’s facing an opponent that’s been one of the
best at avoiding sacks and turnovers.
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