Few phrases invoke as much happiness to fantasy managers as "garbage time." It's when those hard-earned catches and yards become easier to collect, and even pile up, at the end of a decided game. It might be a few minutes or nearly an entire half. But when regular fans are done, we're just getting started. A game's worth of stats can be accumulated in just a couple drives, and those stats can make or break your fantasy week.
Well, enjoy them while you can because they’ll dry up as the season progresses.
Guys like Jacoby Brissett, Marcus Mariota and Mac Jones looked pretty decent on the stat sheet in week 10, but they all benefited from a healthy amount of garbage time. You might not have started them, but you might have started a McBride or a Kittle or even a Samuel, who got in on the fun a little. And we don't care about the circumstances anyway, right? All stats count the same.
And that's true. The stats count the same, but they aren't really the same. Because stats from struggling teams are less reliable than the ones from good teams. At some point in the year, those frisky losers who fight to the end just become regular old losers. As much as we love the Bengals from a fantasy perspective, they'll be less fun to watch if/when they fall out of playoff contention. And if your fantasy team has more of those guys than the competitive ones, you have a problem that can hurt you in weeks 15-17.
Here's how it breaks down: Scrappy team scores meaningless touchdowns at the end of blowouts to build some momentum and try to take something into the following weekend. That practice continues until all playoff hope is lost. Then short-term injuries become season ending because management has to protect their eight-figure assets for future seasons. Blowouts just become boring blowouts. The guys on your fantasy team don't fight to put up extra yards and points any more. They take a back seat to younger players (often found on your waiver wire) who run around, kill the clock and don't do a whole lot. Guys looking at free agency make "business decisions" as they ponder sacrificing their bodies for a 4-10 team. And that garbage time becomes actual garbage as teams create de facto preseason games to evaluate talent.
Even now you can see which teams are leaning toward that category. Buried in the stat sheet of Seattle's blowout win over Arizona, was this line: 0-1-0-0. That was the professional debut of one Kedon Slovis, the USC/Pitt/BYU quarterback who might be starting games if the Cardinals fall out of contention. If that happens, how will the Trey McBride managers feel? Will anyone care who emerges as the running back of choice for the Cardinals?
And while there might be talk about Joe Burrow inching closer toward a comeback, but I'm not buying it. The Bengals' next five games feature the Steelers, Patriots, Bills, and Ravens (twice). If 3-6 becomes 4-10 or 3-11, what percent likelihood would they throw Burrow out there for no reason? It's the Bengals, so we can't say zero. But it's low, even for them. Burrow aside, the more they lose, the more a twisted ankle keeps guys like Chase and Higgins on the sidelines. It's one thing to fight for a playoff spot at 6-6. It's another to trot out there at 3-9. And the Falcons and Commanders aren't far behind. There are significant fantasy players on those teams, and their absence would be significant losses to your title hopes.
I know we like to say that we don't care if the players' teams win or lose. We only care about the stats. But a lot of garbage time means a lot of losing, and not a lot of reasons to keep playing as hard in December. So you might want to root for those teams to stay in contention as well, or at least win just enough to pretend they are. Good luck this week.
Have you been rescued by some garbage-time stats this season? Have you been burned by them? Do you have players who are producing for you who might pack it in if things go south? Share your thoughts below.
