NEW ENGLAND (at
Cin.): The Patriots have scored at least 3 touchdowns in six straight games, and
they look certain to keep that streak going.
**This snippet was first published on November 19.
Cincinnati has the worst defense
in the league, and it’s not even close – they’ve allowed a lot more yards and
points than any other team. The Bengals have allowed at least 4 touchdowns in
each of their last four home games.
Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) is
practicing, looking like he’ll return, and we’ll assume as much for now. He’ll
likely be sharing time with TreVeyon Henderson. Stevenson has more size
and experience, while Henderson is a lot more explosive. Henderson has had a
so-so rookie season, averaging under 4 yards per carry in most of his games,
but he’s starting to find the range now. He had 69- and 55-yard touchdown runs
at Tampa Bay, and followed that up with 3 TDs against the Jets. With that
home-run ability, he’s capable of finishing with more yards than Stevenson even
if he logs fewer carries. And they’re starting to tap into Henderson’s
pass-catching ability; he’s caught 10 passes in his last three games. Stevenson
hasn’t played since October, and he’s been plagued by some of the same issues
as Henderson, with too many plays blown up at the line of scrimmage (he’s
averaging only 3.4 per carry). We’re expecting a one-two punch, with Henderson
leading the way, and it looks like a week where they might both be viable.
Cincinnati has by far the worst run defense in the league – not even close. The
Bengals have allowed over 250 rushing yards in each of their last two home
games, with Kyle Monangai running for 176 yards in his first start. Henderson
definitely a starter-quality guy, and maybe Stevenson is also.
While there
should be some big rushing numbers, Drake Maye might reasonably say,
“Hold my beer.” He’s having a big year, and the Bengals are similarly awful
against the pass. They’d allowed multiple touchdown passes in eight straight
games prior to Aaron Rodgers breaking his wrist. In three of their last four at
home, they’ve allowed 4 TD passes, all against teams that don’t rank in the top
10 in passing (Steelers, Jets, Bears). Admittedly, it’s fair to worry that Maye
might not need to pass much, but nor did any of those teams. And note that the
Patriots have run for over 165 yards three times this year; Maye has averaged
262 passing yards in those games, with at least 2 TD passes in each of them. He
should put together solid stats. For the season, he’s averaging 258 passing and
26 rushing yards, with 20 TD passes and a pair of TD runs.
Hunter Henry is
something short of a difference maker. He's averaging 3.1 catches for 38 yards,
and all but one of his 4 TDs came in September. But this looks like a week to
use him. The Bengals have allowed more touchdown passes to tight ends than any
other team. By far. With 12 such touchdowns, they’ve allowed more than double
most other teams. That makes this seem like a week where Henry is more likely
to have his number called in the red zone.
It’s a jumbled situation with the
wide receivers. They’re using a lot of guys. But Stefon Diggs has
bubbled to the surface as their top guy – a reception short of having twice as
many catches as any other wide receiver on the team. He’s averaging 5.4
receptions for 60 yards, with 3 TDs. While those aren’t elite numbers, he’s at
least steadily involved. And his 3 TDs have all come in the last four games.
Kayshon
Boutte has missed the last two games, but he practiced last week, making it
seem like he’ll be back (and we’ll assume as much for now). He’s their deep
threat, and he’s been surprisingly good in that role (considering he’s not big
or fast). He’s averaging 18.7 yards per catch, and with a team-high 5 TD
receptions. In this kind of role, he doesn’t see the ball a ton. He’s averaged
2.9 catches for 54 yards in his eight full games. But he’s scored in each of
his last three healthy games. While he’s been down with the hamstring, the
Patriots plugged rookie Kyle Williams into this role, but with modest
results. Williams turned on the jets to turn a catch into a 72-yard touchdown
at Tampa Bay, but he hasn’t caught any of the other 5 passes thrown his way.
The return of Boutte should move Williams back down into spot-duty role.
The
Patriots have two other veteran receivers who’ll get on the field plenty, but
it’s hard to count on DeMario Douglas or Mack Hollins to see the
ball enough. Douglas is averaging just over 2 catches per week. Hollins was
about the same until catching 10 passes in the last two weeks (in part because
Boutte was out). Douglas has caught 3 TDs, while Hollins has caught 2.
Nobody
who starts Andres Borregales will be going home empty handed. But with
the Bengals having the worst defense in the league, he comes with limited
upside. Cincinnati has allowed the most extra points in the league, but it’s
actually been above-average in field goal attempts (the defense can’t stop
anyone).
The Patriots Defense looks like a middle-of-the-pack choice.
New England is 9-2, but without a lot of game-changing plays from the defense –
24 sacks and 12 takeaways in 11 games. The Bengals have been above-average in
those categories since switching from Jake Browning to Joe Flacco. New England
looks above-average on special teams, with Marcus Jones having 87- and 61-yard
punt returns earlier in the year. (Including the preseason, New England has
scored 2 TDs on kickoff returns, but neither of those players are returning
kickoffs at this time.)
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