HOUSTON (at K.C.): The Texans have won four straight (three with their backup quarterback), and while this is a tough matchup, it seems to be a winnable game. Houston has the league's best defense, and their offense has exceeded expectations at times.
**This snippet was first published on December 3.
Win or lose, though, big numbers are unlikely. Kansas City's defense
ranks 9th in yards and 7th in points allowed. The Texans lost both meetings a
year ago, 27-19 in the regular season and 23-14 in the playoffs.
Kansas City
ranks 10th against the pass, but there's been some vulnerability of late. Two
of their last three opponents (Denver, Dallas) threw for at least 295 yards,
and two of three (Colts, Cowboys) threw multiple touchdowns. C.J. Stroud
missed three games due to a concussion, but has been playing well around that
absence. He averages 260 passing yards in his last five, with 9 touchdowns; 318
and 276 in his last two. This is a below-average matchup, but this defense has
been even tougher on the run, and Houston doesn't run the ball well anyway.
Kansas City has allowed just 13 touchdown passes, so multiple scores don't seem
likely, with Stroud throwing 11 in his eight full games. He averaged 25 rushing
yards prior to the concussion, but fair to wonder if he's been advised against
it (no runs last week). Average to above-average yards and 1-2 TDs seems
reasonable.
Kansas City ranks 9th in run defense, while Houston is just 23rd
in rushing. The line isn't great, and it doesn't seem to be what the offense
really wants to do. Woody Marks has been just OK since the team committed
to him as its main back. Over the past four he's averaged 17 carries for 61
yards, with 1 TD. Just 3.7 yards per attempt, but he's not getting great
blocking and the team has won all four games. Considerable negatives are that Nick
Chubb is getting more chances in short-yardage situations. The veteran
scored last week, and there was another play where they lined him up in a
Wildcat formation near the goal line. And Marks (who caught 261 passes in five
college seasons) is being woefully underutilized in that regard. He's caught
only 5 passes on 6 targets in his past four, a busier receiver when he was
playing behind Chubb (a trio of 3-catch games earlier in the season). Kansas
City has allowed just 5 rushing scores in its last seven games (3 by Buffalo, 2
by the other six opponents). With a tough matchup, minimal scoring potential
and lesser usage in the passing game, Marks looks like a pretty modest choice.
Nico Collins looks solid enough, averaging 5.2 catches for 72 yards,
with 5 total touchdowns. Kansas City hasn't been taking away opposing wideouts,
with Dallas' tandem putting up big numbers, Michael Pittman catching 5 passes
and a touchdown, and Denver putting a pair over 80 yards. The other wide
receivers are harder to latch onto, with Jayden Higgins, Christian
Kirk and Xavier Hutchinson all involved, but Higgins looks best.
He's caught 4-5 passes in five of six, with 3 touchdowns. Half of those games
(and 2 TDs) were with Davis Mills, but 5 for 65 with Stroud at Indianapolis.
Kirk wasn't even targeted last week (his third game in the last four with 1 or
no receptions). Hutchinson has also been shut out in two of four (2-3 catches
in the other two). Collins caught 5-7 passes for an average of 71 yards in the
two games last year.
Dalton Schultz has been a reliable part of the
passing game. He's averaging just under 5 receptions, with at least 5 in eight
of his last 10 games. Just 1 TD all season and a modest 46 yards per week, but
a nice PPR choice. Schultz caught 4-5 passes for an average of 54 yards and a
touchdown in last year's games.
Ka'imi Fairbairn caused some drama
with an extra point ruled successful that seemed wide to the naked eye last
week. Apart from that he ranks 2nd in field goals, with 27, and is averaging
9.7 points per week. Lesser matchup here, with Kansas City allowing just 6.7
points to kickers.
The Texans Defense has been excellent, currently
top 6 in both sacks (34) and takeaways (19). It's never great putting up a
defense against Patrick Mahomes, but Mahomes will probably be working without
both starting tackles (possibly a starting guard, too) and has been having to
do a lot by himself all year, creating some opportunities for opponents. He's
on pace to take the most sacks of his career (currently 27 in 12 games),
including at least 3 in five straight games. He's thrown only 7 interceptions,
but 5 have come in his last five games.
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