The Dolphins have benched Tua Tagovailoa. It's reasonable to think they might want to get a look at former first-round pick Zach Wilson to evaluate him for next year. Wait what's that? They're instead starting seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers.
There's not much downside to the move from their standpoint -- they're eliminated, the Bengals are eliminated, and this sort of suggests that either Tua or Mike McDaniel is definitely gone after the season (maybe both). If this is it for McDaniel, well, he's going out evaluating a youngster, at least.
Say this for Ewers, he has a nice draw in the Bengals. Cincinnati has allowed more yards and points than any other team this season. They've allowed a league-high 31 touchdown passes, too.
And it's not like it's impossible for a seventh-round quarterback to succeed. Brock Purdy in San Francisco has worked out pretty well.
Using the search tools at pro-football-reference, I took a look at quarterbacks drafted about as late as Ewers was from the last 10 years (to get a larger sample set, I looked at both sixth- and seventh-rounders). I looked at their initial NFL starts, or games they quarterbacked most of (to get Colts' sixth-round rookie Riley Leonard in).
I came up with 15 names since 2015 that fit the profile. Listed are stats from their first full games/starts.
They've gone 5-10 in those games, averaging 204 passing yards, with 12 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. They've averaged about 2 sacks in those games. To be honest, I'd have thought things would go worse. Reasonable to think Ewers won't completely collapse this week.
| 6TH-7TH ROUND QUARTERBACKS, 1ST STARTS (2015-2025) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Draft | Rd | Result | Pass | TD | Int | Sk |
| Trevor Siemian, Den. | 2015 | 7 | W, 21-20 | 178 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Nate Sudfeld, Phi. | 2016 | 6 | L, 0-6 | 134 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jeff Driskel, Cin. | 2016 | 6 | L, 20-35 | 155 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 2019 | 6 | L, 26-40 | 275 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Luke Falk, NYJ | 2018 | 6 | L, 3-23 | 198 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Brandon Allen, Den. | 2016 | 6 | W, 24-19 | 193 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Ben DiNucci, Dal. | 2020 | 7 | L, 9-23 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Jake Luton, Jac. | 2020 | 6 | L, 25-27 | 304 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Skylar Thompson, Mia. | 2022 | 7 | L, 17-40 | 166 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Sam Ehlinger, Ind. | 2021 | 6 | L, 16-17 | 201 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Brock Purdy, S.F. | 2022 | 7 | W, 33-17 | 210 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Trace McSorley, AR. | 2019 | 6 | L, 16-19 (OT) | 217 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tanner McKee, Phi. | 2023 | 6 | W, 20-13 | 269 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Joe Milton, N.E. | 2024 | 6 | W, 23-16 | 241 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Leonard, Ind. | 2025 | 6 | L, 19-36 | 145 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Average | 204.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.9 | |||
On the other hand, Purdy is the lone success story. Minshew has been 2nd-best, and he quickly descended into journeyman backup status.
It will be beating the odds if Ewers has a big game, or a successful career. But throwing for 200-plus yards and a touchdown this week? That's probably reasonable. Even though Miami is more likely to lean on the run.
As for Tagovailoa, I don't know. If he's starting in Miami next year, it's because McDaniel is gone. More likely, it seems, he's on another roster, hoping he's working with a Sean McVay type. I don't think he's done, but signs aren't good.
--Andy Richardson