NEW ENGLAND (at Bal.): While not a great situation, on the road against a Baltimore team battling for a playoff spot, it's not a bad matchup for the offense. Most of the Ravens' recent five-game win streak came against struggling opponents: Vikings, Browns, Jets.
Better offenses (Bengals, Steelers) scored 2-3 TDs and 27-32 points in
recent wins, in Baltimore. The Patriots have scored 3-plus touchdowns in seven
of nine, and should at least approach those kind of numbers again.
Baltimore
ranks just 27th against the pass; weakest early in the season, but not
particularly good lately either. Five of the last eight have passed for at
least 248 yards, and two of the exceptions were the Browns and Jets. No pass
rush to speak of (22 sacks). So Drake Maye should have some time to
work, and some open receivers. He's had an MVP-caliber season, averaging 255
passing and 26 rushing yards, with nearly 2 total touchdowns per game (23 pass
and 4 run in 14 contests). Touchdown averages look a little iffy here, with the
Ravens showing some ability to make some red-zone stops the second half of the
season. They've allowed 19 touchdown passes (11th), including 14 in the first
six games (when they had a lot of injuries) but just 5 in the last eight.
Matchups with some weaker offenses are part of that, but they've been able to
limit some better quarterbacks (like Joe Burrow last week) as well. Maye has
finished with under 2 total touchdowns on just four occasions, but this
opponent has some potential to be the fifth. As for as actually moving the ball,
though, average numbers seem reasonable.
It's against the run where the
Ravens have really tightened things up since the first half of the season. They
allowed an average of 134 rushing yards, with 9 TDs, during their 1-5 start,
but just 94 yards, with 4 TDs, while going 6-2 since. No one will be looking to
sit down TreVeyon Henderson after he ran for 148 yards, with 52- and
65-yard breakaway touchdown runs, but that's a bottom-3 run defense; Baltimore
is currently 15th. So a more difficult matchup, plus it's a committee --
Henderson has actually played less than Rhamondre Stevenson in each of
the last two weeks. But he out-carried him 25-18 and (as the Buffalo game
indicates) has a lot more explosive potential, making him the superior choice.
Each has 5-6 catches on 6-7 targets in those games, so no real favorite for
that work right now. Receiving work could be important, with it being a tougher
matchup for running.
Stefon Diggs has been quiet of late, with 2-3
catches on 3-4 targets in three straight. But all three opponents (Bengals,
Giants, Bills) had bottom-5 run defenses, while Baltimore is built differently;
should be more passing this week. Even with those quiet games Diggs averages
4.8 catches for 52 yards, though with just 3 TDs. Kayshon Boutte, DeMario
Douglas and Mack Hollins are all possibilities for next-best option.
Boutte (6 TDs) has been the best scorer, Hollins busiest over the last five
games (an average of 4 catches for 53 yards), Douglas also getting some chances
as a runner (4 carries for 14 yards in those same contests, in addition to 9
receptions). In a better matchup for passing, all have some potential; it's
locking in on the right one that's tricky.
Hunter Henry is mercurial;
just 1 catch in three of his last seven games. But at least 4 catches in the
others, with 2 TDs. Passing should be up this week, putting him in the mix for
one of his better games. Just 3 TDs by tight ends against Baltimore, though.
Andres
Borregales has been very solid, averaging 8 points. The Ravens Defense has
been an excellent matchup for opposing kickers, tending to allow more field
goals (31, tied for 3rd-most) than extra points (29).
The Patriots Defense
is below-average in both sacks (29) and takeaways (14). Lamar Jackson,
slowed by various injuries, has been a better matchup than in the past, taking
33 sacks in 11 contests and throwing 6 interceptions. But he says he's
healthier now, and New England hasn't shown much ability to generate big
numbers. The Patriots do have some of the best return teams (3 TDs), with
potential to take one to the house at some point.
Haven't ordered yet? BUY THE MONTH OF DECEMBER!
Already a subscriber? VIEW IT NOW!