With the regular season winding down, we'll be watching the final handful of 2025 games for over half of NFL teams over the next three weeks. As we get ready to bid those less fortunate teams farewell for the year, I thought we might start a new tradition: Postmortems on what went right, what went wrong and what the next six months might hold for these teams. Kicking off this series: The down baddest of the down bad.

2025 Las Vegas Raiders

Through Week 15
Record: 2-12
Head Coach: Pete Carroll, first season
Offensive Coordinator: Greg Olson, interim
Total Offense: 32nd
Passing: 29th
Rushing: 32nd
Scoring: 32nd

Defensive Coordinator: Patrick Graham, fourth season
Total Defense: 16th
Passing: 16th
Rushing: 17th
Scoring: 25th

Should they fire the coach?: Yes
Will they fire the coach?: Probably
Should they fire the GM?: Probably not
Will they fire the GM?: No

Where to begin? Faced with the profound challenge of trying to field a competitive football operation in a division where every other head coach had a proven track record and every team had a franchise quarterback, the Las Vegas Raiders made the bold decision to zig where other teams have mostly zagged: Young head coaching hire? Nah. A fresh sapling off of the Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan coaching tree to run the offense? Nope. Well, certainly all that experience will come in handy with a rookie quarterback! Wrong again.

The exact delineation of decision-making unclear, some combination of longtime principal owner Mark Davis and minority stakeholder Tom Brady put their plan in motion with the January dismissals of HC Antonio Pierce and GM Tom Telesco. The longtime general manager of the San Diego/L.A. Chargers, Telesco oversaw the selections of such big names as Keenan Allen, Denzel Perryman, and Derwin James, as well as current franchise lynchpins Justin Herbert, Rashawn Slater and Tuli Tuipulotu. In his first (and ultimately only) draft for Las Vegas, he nailed his first two picks by selecting Brock Bowers and Jackson Powers-Johnson, two of the five or six most important players on the roster for the foreseeable future.

Pierce had taken over in 2023 as the interim head coach in relief of the disastrous Josh McDaniels, who was shown the door on Halloween along with tandem hire GM Dave Ziegler. Pierce rallied the troops for a surprisingly respectable 5-4 finish, highlighted by a 42-point demolition of the Chargers that would prove to be the final nail in Brandon Staley's coffin, and a bruising win at Arrowhead the following week. Playing in one of the league's toughest divisions with an unsettled quarterback room and a head coach orchestrating an NFL team's offseason for the first time, the Raiders predictably fell back to earth in 2024, losing 10 straight at one point. But the Raiders rallied for wins against Jacksonville and New Orleans in December, going out on the most modest of high notes. Seemingly able to keep the locker room despite a disappointing first full season, many thought the Raiders would give Pierce another shake with better options under center than Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell.

Alas, Mark Davis and his new, very successful minority owner had other ideas. Pierce being thrown overboard was not exactly a surprise, but Telesco joining him two days later qualified as one. Considering that he was quickly replaced by John Spytek, a young executive Brady first got friendly with as a Buccaneer, some inferred that Telesco getting the axe may have been because he had been less than receptive to the degree of input ownership would be seeking on personnel in the months ahead, starting with the hiring of Pete Carroll out of quasi-retirement. The defense-oriented Carroll would ultimately be paired with the pricey Chip Kelly, lured away from his native college ranks by a contract richer than that of the Raiders' previous head coach. The Raiders would then acquire Geno Smith from the Seahawks, and voila: the first iteration of the Tom Brady-adjacent Raiders was at hand.

And boy, has it ever not worked! The Raiders managed to catch the fledgling Patriots by surprise in the opener, largely on the strength of Geno Smith going out of body for 10 pass plays of 20-plus yards. Following that bit of New England revenge for Carroll, the Raiders would fail to score a touchdown in a game for the first time this year; they've now done it four times and counting. With last week's loss, the Raiders have now been beaten 31-0 by both of last year's Super Bowl teams, and they haven't scored more than 17 points since Week 8. The record might be the same as it was 365 days ago, but the mood in Sin City is somehow even more glower.

What's Next?

The first order of business will be what to do with Pete Carroll. Despite being in his first year on the job, at 74 Carroll is currently the oldest head coach in the league - and in NFL history. Age might be nothing but a number, but the game may simply have passed the legendary Carroll by; he was unable to forge any 'old guy' alliance with big fish hire Chip Kelly, nor could he recapture anything like the hyper-physical, rah-rah magic he leveraged over much of his very successful run in Seattle. Signed to a three-year contract instead of the more typical five-year deal for established head coaches, Las Vegas did at least leave themselves a less expensive escape route than with their other high-profile hires in recent years.

There is an outside chance that Carroll gets a reprieve here, particularly if the team can rally with some respectable showings and a couple of wins to close out 2025. It is feasible that the firing of Chip Kelly could wind up being the extent of the blame needing placement on the coaching staff: The offense has far and away been the biggest problem, with which Kelly had carte blanche, and Carroll is a proven winner. Plus, there is the small matter of actually paying Carroll out; while he's worth over $2 billion, the proportion of Mark Davis' fortune that is tied to the face value of his NFL franchise is much larger than it is for almost any other majority/sole owner around the league. Davis has been rumored to struggle to meet some of his larger financial obligations in recent years, and he will once again be paying two former coaches in 2026 (McDaniels and Pierce this year, McDaniels and Kelly next year). Cheapness wouldn't be the best reason to retain a head coach, but richer owners than Davis have done it before. That being said, word on the street is Davis (and Brady?) have the financial appetite for another divorce.

The Raiders will likely make their 17th head coach hire of the last 31 seasons next month. Whoever it is figures to be charged with fixing a run game that has been an utter trainwreck for three years straight. These Raiders' 70.8 rushing yards per game is currently neck and neck with the 2006 Detroit Lions for the worst of the 21st century, and they haven't finished higher than 30th in rushing since 2022.

As is typically the case for teams donning the 'rebuilding mode' label, the Raiders figure to be in the market for a rookie quarterback with what could very well wind up being the No. 1 pick of the 2026 draft. Unfortunately for them, it's not regarded as an especially strong incoming crop; Fernando Mendoza is emerging as the odds on first quarterback off the board in April. Maybe they fall head over heels for him or one of the other first round hopefuls, but it's worth pointing out that the Raiders have invested very little draft capital in the quarterback position historically. Since 1991, the Raiders have taken a quarterback in the first 50 picks of the NFL Draft just twice. The last time was on Derek Carr, in 2014. You can probably guess who the other one was. That kind of historical trend across multiple front office regimes suggests a philosophy coming from the very top, so we shouldn't write 'first round pick' in ink on the QB depth chart here just yet.

Even if the Raiders choose to spend their hard-earned Day 1 pick elsewhere, don't count on Geno Smith running it back here. Smith hasn't been as bad as the 2-11 record and 14 interceptions suggest, as his 67 percent completion rate is still 10th in the league among quarterback to start at least eight games. His charted turnover worthy throw rate of 3.8% has been high, but it's got Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Dak Prescott and Jaxson Dart for neighbors. But the knock on Smith in Seattle was an inability to elevate the offense, and that certainly remained true in Vegas: 15 points per game in his 13 starts just doesn't cut it.

If the Raiders were to decide to go back to the well one more time trading for their starting quarterback, it will certainly be a buyer's market. Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins - Deshaun Watson. All will be clearance-priced by teams desperate for the cap relief that would come with trading versus releasing them; facing so-so options in the draft, scooping a veteran castoff to pair with a Day 2 pick might not be the most advisable way to go about things, but it would certainly be in keeping with the Raider way.

Elsewhere on the offensive side of the ball, the Raiders are actually not nearly as bad as off as they... maybe deserve to be. Brock Bowers is a generational talent that fell into their laps two years ago, and this Ashton Jeanty kid has got more game than the rushing numbers imply. He's got a shot to crack 60 receptions as a rookie - neither Bijan Robinson nor Jahmyr Gibbs hit that number in their NFL debuts. The offensive line has been missing its two best players, Kolton Miller and Powers-Johnson, for much of 2025; both can be difference-makers, and both are under team control for multiple seasons to come. Ziegler era holdover Dylan Parham has flashed at times but has overall been a liability and is in his walk year; probably somebody is going to want him worse than the Raiders, but you never know. Somewhat hard to believe with how broken it's been, but the Raiders offense could - could - bounce back fairly sharply in 2026.

To do that they will need to improve in a big way at wide receiver, because it's a mess. Seemingly done with the silver and black from the moment they moved on from Antonio Pierce, the loss of Jakobi Meyers and his quiet playmaking ability was a mortal blow. Rookie Jack Bech could prove a competent big slot/Swiss Army knife in time; walled off from playing time by veterans for much of the season, the jury will remain out on him until next year. Tre Tucker is a diminutive speedster and part-time return man that has probably been miscast as an every-down receiver; certainly, he shouldn't be any NFL team's primary perimeter option like he has been this year. The doe eyes with which the fantasy community regarded rookie size-speed unicorn Dont'e Thornton four months ago was shared by the Raiders in the early going, but losses on the offensive line and Geno Smith's aversion to riskier deep shots put the genie back in the bottle in a hurry. With a strong offseason, Thornton will be in the mix for significant playing time in 2026.

It lacks the name recognition of the 2022 and 2024 cohorts, but there will be no shortage of interesting youngsters for the Raiders to take a Day 2 stab on at the receiver position this spring. Tyler Lockett is all but certain to walk away, which would leave Tucker as their most experienced guy at this position. Currently showing the second-most 2026 cap space in the league behind Tennessee, safe bet that a chunk of it is going to be spent on veteran wide receiver help. I know what some of you are thinking, and I agree: the Raiders are overdue for adding an ex-49er. One of Brandon Aiyuk or Jauan Jennings joining the fray here feels pretty plausible. Failing that, maybe a Christian Kirk, Hollwood Brown or Jahan Dotson caliber of player signs an offer sheet too rich to refuse.

It's been Patrick Graham and the cockroaches surviving one nuclear bomb after another in Nevada. Lured west along with McDaniels, it is exceptionally unusual for a coordinator to survive across three different coaching staffs, going on four. But you certainly can't say he hasn't deserved it, as Graham has consistently made chicken salad out of the very least appetizing chicken byproducts: After a rough 2022, Graham's defenses have ranked between 12th and 21st in the league against the pass and the run in each of the three seasons since. Graham figures to be asked back by the new head honcho - that is, if he doesn't find a better gig elsewhere. Graham's drawn head coaching interviews before. At the very least, a defensive coordinator job for a contender with 'assistant head coach' tacked on to circumvent the NFL's policy on lateral moves between teams would be squarely in play.

Personnel-wise, it remains 'Maxx Crosby and a bunch of guys'. That alone would seem to be some degree of cause for the Raiders to consider eschewing the pressure to find a franchise quarterback and instead taking an immediate impact player on the defensive side of the ball with their first-round pick - Crosby's prime won't last forever, and things between him and the new front office already got dicey once. One of several familiar faces to follow him to Las Vegas, moving from safety to OLB has given Jamal Adams a bit of a new lease on his football life. But he's 30 and headed for free agency; the Raiders aren't likely to stand in his way. A couple guys that would make some sense to bring back are Eric Stokes and Jeremy Chinn, both of whom came off of rookie contracts with other teams on one-year deals and have turned in above-average seasons. Guys in their position have to go with the highest bidder, but the Raiders can once again outbid just about anybody.

Overall, the Raiders have a below average roster that has the built-in running headstart of 3-4 foundational players in hand. That's not nothing; the Jaguars had little more than that 11 months ago. This is a roster that could be consistently competitive on both sides of the ball in a single league year cycle. As ever, the real challenge will be in finding a head coach that can actually work with the front office toward a singular vision for the franchise - without intervention from the owner's box. If the last quarter century is any indication, things are unlikely to go down that way.

Organizational Outlook
Roster: C-
Vision: C
Culture: F
2026 Schedule: D- (AFC East, NFC West, Titans, Browns OR Bengals, Saints OR Falcons)
2026 Outlook: Offense to avoid

—Luke Wilson