It was a surprise when Bills owner Terry Pegula, unprompted, chose to throw Keon Coleman under the bus at the press conference announcing the firing of Sean McDermott. It was McDermott, not GM Brandon Beane, Pegula said, who pushed to draft Coleman, who’s been largely unsuccessful. (A claim undermined by comments Beane has made over the last two years.)
Coleman has been generally unproductive in his first two seasons, and the team hasn’t been satisfied with some of his off-field work. Four times last year, he was a healthy scratch. Pegula’s comments make it reasonable to wonder if he’ll even be on the 53-man roster. The Bills possibly would jump at the chance to pick up a fourth-round pick if some other team wanted to give Coleman a look.
But new coach Joe Brady says he’s still a Coleman believer. “I told Keon when I got hired, the best thing that happened to Keon Coleman was me being his head coach,” Brady said, via ESPN.com. “I was one of the ones that stood on the table for Keon Coleman, and I believe in Keon Coleman.”
Ultimately, we’re left with the question, ‘when a receiver doesn’t do much in his first two seasons, what are the chances of him turning things around?’ Or is it time to toss such a player onto the scrap heap, moving on to other candidates?
It’s a question that applies to not only Coleman but also Xavier Legette, Adonai Mitchell and Ricky Pearsall. All receivers who haven’t yet delivered the hoped-for payoff.
It can be done. Flipping through the numbers, I see 21 wide receivers in the last 20 years who were picked in the first two rounds, didn’t do too much in the first two season (not in top 60 in PPR scoring in either year) but later in their careers had a top-40 season.
Three of these receivers at one point in their career were the most productive receivers in the entire league – Roddy White, Davante Adams and the late Demaryius Thomas. Jordy Nelson had a No. 2 overall season for the Packers, while five other receivers at one point ranked between 11th and 17th.
Most recently, we’ve seen Alec Pierce, Jameson Williams and Rashod Bateman become viable the last two years. So, it can happen. In the chart below, you’re seeing the best statistical season by each of those 21 receivers.
| SLOW STARTING RECEIVERS (best season of career) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Yr | No | Yards | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2010 | Roddy White, Atl. | 6 | 115 | 1,389 | 10 | 318.2 | 1 |
| 2013 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 4 | 92 | 1,430 | 14 | 319.0 | 1 |
| 2020 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 7 | 115 | 1,374 | 18 | 360.4 | 1 |
| 2016 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 9 | 97 | 1,257 | 14 | 306.7 | 2 |
| 2009 | Sidney Rice, Min. | 3 | 83 | 1,312 | 8 | 262.2 | 11 |
| 2017 | Golden Tate, Det. | 8 | 92 | 1,003 | 5 | 226.5 | 11 |
| 2012 | Vincent Jackson, T.B. | 8 | 72 | 1,384 | 8 | 260.4 | 12 |
| 2025 | Jameson Williams, Det. | 4 | 65 | 1,117 | 7 | 219.9 | 12 |
| 2018 | Tyler Boyd, Cin. | 3 | 76 | 1,028 | 7 | 221.1 | 17 |
| 2017 | Devin Funchess, Car. | 3 | 63 | 840 | 8 | 195.0 | 22 |
| 2017 | Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 3 | 62 | 768 | 9 | 193.5 | 23 |
| 2009 | Robert Meachem, N.O. | 3 | 45 | 722 | 10 | 185.4 | 26 |
| 2011 | Jabar Gaffney, Was. | 10 | 68 | 947 | 5 | 192.7 | 26 |
| 2011 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 3 | 64 | 975 | 4 | 185.5 | 28 |
| 2025 | Alec Pierce, Ind. | 4 | 47 | 1,003 | 6 | 183.3 | 28 |
| 2020 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 5 | 53 | 879 | 8 | 188.9 | 32 |
| 2006 | Reche Caldwell, N.E. | 5 | 61 | 760 | 4 | 163.5 | 34 |
| 2007 | Reggie Williams, Jac. | 4 | 38 | 629 | 10 | 161.7 | 35 |
| 2017 | Paul Richardson, Sea. | 4 | 44 | 703 | 6 | 150.3 | 39 |
| 2016 | Marqise Lee, Jac. | 3 | 63 | 851 | 4 | 180.6 | 40 |
| 2024 | Rashod Bateman, Balt. | 4 | 45 | 756 | 9 | 174.6 | 40 |
At the same time, it doesn’t happen often. There are a lot more misses than hits with these kind of receivers.
Below see the wide receivers in the last 10 years who were drafted in the first or second round, didn’t rank in the top 60 statistically (using PPR scoring) in either of their first two seasons, and came back to play in their third year. Five of these 35 (about 1 in 7, my calculator suggests) ranked higher than 40th in their third seasons.
Adams is the headliner of those 35. Tyler Boyd put together some busy seasons for the Bengals. And Jameson Williams, Devin Funchess and Nelson Agholor all ranked 22nd or 23rd in PPR scoring in their third seasons. (Williams little different in that his first two seasons were marred by injuries and suspensions.)
| THIRD YEAR FOR RECEIVERS WHO DIDN'T DO MUCH IN FIRST TWO | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | No | Yards | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2016 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 16 | 75 | 997 | 12 | 248.7 | 9 |
| 2018 | Tyler Boyd, Cin. | 14 | 76 | 1028 | 7 | 221.1 | 17 |
| 2024 | Jameson Williams, Det. | 15 | 58 | 1001 | 8 | 212.2 | 22 |
| 2017 | Devin Funchess, Car. | 16 | 63 | 840 | 8 | 195.0 | 22 |
| 2017 | Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 16 | 62 | 768 | 9 | 193.5 | 23 |
| 2016 | Marqise Lee, Jac. | 16 | 63 | 851 | 4 | 180.6 | 40 |
| 2024 | Alec Pierce, Ind. | 16 | 37 | 824 | 7 | 161.4 | 43 |
| 2023 | Tutu Atwell, LAR | 16 | 39 | 483 | 3 | 112.4 | 62 |
| 2023 | Rondale Moore, Ari. | 17 | 40 | 352 | 2 | 105.0 | 66 |
| 2018 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 7 | 32 | 503 | 4 | 106.3 | 69 |
| 2019 | John Ross, Cin. | 8 | 28 | 506 | 3 | 97.0 | 74 |
| 2023 | Rashod Bateman, Balt. | 16 | 32 | 367 | 1 | 76.5 | 85 |
| 2018 | Laquon Treadwell, Min. | 15 | 35 | 302 | 1 | 71.2 | 94 |
| 2015 | Justin Hunter, Ten. | 9 | 22 | 264 | 1 | 54.4 | 103 |
| 2016 | Paul Richardson, Sea. | 15 | 21 | 288 | 1 | 56.3 | 106 |
| 2023 | Kadarius Toney, K.C. | 13 | 27 | 169 | 1 | 53.0 | 108 |
| 2017 | Phillip Dorsett, N.E. | 15 | 12 | 194 | 0 | 32.1 | 127 |
| 2023 | Terrace Marshall, Car. | 9 | 19 | 139 | 0 | 32.9 | 137 |
| 2022 | Denzel Mims, NYJ | 10 | 11 | 186 | 0 | 29.6 | 137 |
| 2022 | Jalen Reagor, Min. | 17 | 8 | 104 | 1 | 26.9 | 138 |
| 2015 | Aaron Dobson, N.E. | 8 | 13 | 141 | 0 | 27.1 | 139 |
| 2022 | KJ Hamler, Den. | 7 | 7 | 165 | 0 | 25.8 | 140 |
| 2021 | Parris Campbell, Ind. | 6 | 10 | 162 | 1 | 32.2 | 141 |
| 2021 | N'Keal Harry, N.E. | 12 | 12 | 184 | 0 | 30.4 | 143 |
| 2017 | Breshad Perriman, Balt. | 11 | 10 | 77 | 0 | 17.7 | 145 |
| 2016 | Cody Latimer, Den. | 12 | 8 | 76 | 0 | 15.6 | 156 |
| 2020 | Dante Pettis, 2TM | 7 | 4 | 76 | 1 | 17.6 | 164 |
| 2018 | Corey Coleman, NYG | 8 | 5 | 71 | 0 | 12.6 | 165 |
| 2024 | Tyquan Thornton, N.E. | 6 | 4 | 47 | 0 | 8.7 | 173 |
| 2024 | Treylon Burks, Ten. | 5 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 7.5 | 175 |
| 2017 | Kevin White, Chi. | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2.6 | 189 |
| 2023 | Dee Eskridge, Sea. | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .5 | 204 |
| 2025 | Jonathan Mingo, Dall. | 6 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3.5 | 206 |
| 2021 | Andy Isabella, Ari. | 8 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.3 | 218 |
| 2024 | Skyy Moore, K.C. | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
As far as guys like Coleman, Legette and Mitchell, I think we’re looking for now we’re looking at guys who’ll be picked (at best) in the last round of drafts. If we get to July and they’re looking pretty likely to be starters, that’s a different conversation. If, during training camp, they’re doing something that suggests they might make some kind of impact, they be discussed more carefully.
—Ian Allan
