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Factoid

Smith-Njigba raises his game

Receiver emerges after quiet start to his career

Jaxon Smith-Njigba serves as the latest reminder that we should not be too quick to draw conclusions about players. He was underwhelming early in his career; now he’s looking like one of the best receivers in the game.

Smith-Njigba, recall, lasted until 20th in 2023 draft. Two others selected just after him in that draft were more productive early in their rookie seasons – Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers. Smith-Njigba doesn’t have burner speed; he didn’t run the 40 at the Combine and reportedly clocked 4.48 under more friendly conditions at the Ohio State Pro Day.

Operating alongside Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, Smith-Njigba in his first 10 games as a pro caught 36 passes for 365 yards and 2 TDs. In the last 10 years of drafts of receivers who’ve completed three seasons, there have been 43 selected in the first round. Just over half of those guys have posted better overall numbers in their first 10 games. (That’s using PPR scoring).

But if we take those same 43 and look at how they did in their third season, Smith-Njigba moves up into the No. 1 spot. Ahead of even the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb and Mike Evans.

Not that early production doesn’t mean anything. In the chart below, most of the guys who were unproductive early in their careers continued to struggle. And most of the guys who shined early are the better guys. But there will be some shifting.

RECEIVERS, rookie v. 3rd year
DraftRookieFirst 10 GRkThird YearRk
2021Ja'Marr Chase47-867-81100-1216-78
2014Mike Evans46-794-7296-1321-123
2020Justin Jefferson45-848-43128-1809-82
2014Kelvin Benjamin43-659-7448-692-323
2015Amari Cooper51-736-4548-680-722
2023Jordan Addison45-603-7642-610-325
2014Sammy Watkins45-649-5728-430-229
2020CeeDee Lamb48-629-48107-1359-95
2018Calvin Ridley39-532-7990-1374-96
2021Jaylen Waddle60-557-31072-1014-418
2021DeVonta Smith42-603-41181-1066-712
2014Brandin Cooks53-550-31278-1173-810
2022Chris Olave46-658-21332-400-130
2023Zay Flowers50-545-11486-1211-511
2022Garrett Wilson44-533-215101-1104-79
2020Jerry Jeudy37-589-21667-972-616
2019Hollywood Brown30-477-41791-1008-613
2020Brandon Aiyuk35-446-31878-1015-814
2022Drake London38-407-319100-1271-97
2014Odell Beckham31-463-320101-1367-104
2018DJ Moore30-474-22166-1193-415
2023Jaxon Smith-Njigba36-365-222119-1793-101
2016Will Fuller26-389-22332-503-427
2021Kadarius Toney35-392-02427-169-135
2022Jahan Dotson13-166-42519-216-036
2016Corey Coleman13-231-2265-71-041
2021Rashod Bateman21-270-02732-367-132
2022Treylon Burks20-264-0284-34-042
2020Henry Ruggs14-256-1290-0-043
2023Quentin Johnston20-183-13051-735-820
2020Jalen Reagor16-211-1318-104-139
2015Kevin White19-187-0324-92-040
2015Phillip Dorsett11-167-13312-194-037
2017Corey Davis16-176-03443-601-231
2015Nelson Agholor14-148-03562-768-819
2017Mike Williams9-84-03649-1001-221
2022Jameson Williams1-41-13758-1001-717
2015DeVante Parker4-49-03857-670-124
2016Josh Doctson2-66-03944-532-226
2019N'Keal Harry3-18-04012-184-038
2016Laquon Treadwell1-15-04135-302-133
2017John Ross0-0-04228-506-328
2015Breshad Perriman0-0-04316-340-234

—Ian Allan

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