It's the last football game of the season, and the last chance some of us with only a passing interest in other sports will have to bet on games. Thought I'd share some of my favorite wagers on the upcoming game.
A disclaimer, please bet responsibly, and don't wager more than you're comfortable losing. In general, most of the bets I recommend are ones that our analysis and statistical projections support. I will not be offering opinions on Gatorade colors, length of the National Anthem, or number of surprise guests appearing in the halftime show. Just football, although it's possible I will throw some money at a fun bet or two (if so, I'll post in the comments about it before Sunday).
Cooper Kupp is one of the few players on either team who's been there before. Although he's had a quiet season, averaging just under 3 receptions, 37 yards, and with 2 TDs, he has stepped it up in the playoffs. Kupp caught 5 for 60 against San Francisco, his 3rd-highest yardage and reception total, and 4 for 36 with a touchdown against the Rams. I included Kupp in a two-player anytime touchdown parlay that would pay off nicely (I opted for Hunter Henry, who is by no means a safe choice; Rhamondre or Drake Maye are the New England favorites), and am confidently betting the over on his 32.5 receiving yards.
I see this particular bet listed at -154, so you have to bet a lot to make it worthwhile (a $10 bet wins only $6.49). But it seems like a misprint to see Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba listed with an over-under of just 6.5 receptions. Christian Gonzalez is a Pro Bowl corner, but I don't see any reasonable way Smith-Njigba doesn't catch 7 passes in this game, probably by some point in the third quarter.
When the Patriots signed Mack Hollins, I didn't make much of it. The crazy barefoot dude (he doesn't wear shoes except on the football field) puts the Journey in Journeyman, having played for six different teams -- five in the past five years. But he just had his 2nd-best season (targets, catches, yards) and was something of a go-to the second half of the season, catching 4-7 passes in four of his last six games prior to a season-closing stint on IR. He returned at Denver to catch 2 passes for 51 yards on a day his quarterback threw for only 86. FanDuel has his over-under set at just 24.5, which is one of my favorite bets in the game.
Betting unders isn't much fun. You have to sweat it out until the very end, with the concern that somebody who was shut down all game might break a long, otherwise meaningless run or reception in the final five minutes. And my actual pr0jection for Kenneth Walker is 69 rushing yards -- just a few under his over-under of 72.5. So I'm not recommending a large bet here. But New England with Milton Williams in the lineup allowed an average of just 78 rushing yards during the season, and really stoned the Chargers, Texans and Broncos (leaving out quarterback runs, those teams all finished under 60 rushing yards) the last three weeks. I like Walker, but I believe the correct bet is under on his rushing total.
With Zach Charbonnet on IR, George Holani is the No. 2 running back behind Walker. Holani was not an effective runner during the season, at 22 carries for 73 yards, nor was he against the Rams in the NFC Championship (3 carries, 4 yards). But note that Holani played a third of the snaps in that game, and saw the same number of targets (4) as Walker in the passing game, catching 3 for 27 yards. Holani has a receptions over-under of just 1.5. Bet the over.
Sam Darnold led the league with 20 turnovers during the season. Drake Maye took 47 sacks, and 5 more in each playoff game. Defenses seem likely to play a role in this one. Looking at the anytime touchdown odds for each, New England is at +900 and Seattle at +550. Betting $10 to win $55 or $90 on one of these defenses scoring a touchdown, while hardly a slam dunk, is appealing; nice return on an investment. The over-under total for combined sacks is 5.5, and I suspect the over will hit on that one (feels like one of these quarterback will be taking 4-plus, depending on how the game goes).
Sticking with the defenses theme, I see Both defenses to record an interception at +180. Drake Maye was the MVP runner up -- remarkably close -- but he has thrown an interception in 8 of his last 13 and 2 of 3 playoff games. Seattle recorded 18 during the season (5th) and 1 in two playoff games. I think they'll be getting one. Sam Darnold, meanwhile, hasn't thrown one in the playoffs but threw 14 in the regular season, while New England had 10. I feel like this bet is worth the gamble.
Hunter Henry, as I mentioned earlier, is someone I kind of like in this game. He's been quiet, totaling just 3 receptions the last two weeks, but he averaged 3.5 during the season, and closed the year by catching 4-plus in five of his last seven games. So I will take the over on his 3.5 receptions.
If you've got a bet you're particularly fond of, please feel free to post it in the comments below. If I win on it, I'll reward you with an attaboy in Monday's recap, the kind of recognition you really can't put a price on.
Good luck!
