Fantasy Index

Factoid

Is Cam Ward a sleeper candidate?

Quarterback finished with lesser numbers as a rookie

With the stats in front of me, I see that Cam Ward had a rough first season. Among quarterbacks who started at least half of their team’s games, he finished with the worst per-game numbers in the league. That’s assuming standard scoring.

That’s not surprising. It’s tough for a rookie to come in and excel at that position, and he didn’t have much to work with. Tennessee’s five leading receivers where Chig Okonkwo, Tyjae Spears and three lightly regarded rookies – Chimere Dike, Gunnar Helm and Elic Ayomanor.

But last is last, and typically when a quarterback isn’t productive in his first season, he doesn’t tend to be productive in his second season either.

In the 32-team era, 28 other quarterbacks drafted in the first round have started at least half of their team’s games and ranked outside the top 20 statistically. Only seven of those guys finished with numbers even worse than Ward (tagged with dots).

STRUGGLING ROOKIE QBs (ROOKIE NUMBERS)
YearPlayer (pick)StPassTDPIntRunTDRPtsRk
2002• David Carr, Hou. (1)16162.56.9418.1913.528
2002• Joey Harrington, Det. (3)121871.001.330.0013.429
2003• Kyle Boller, Balt. (19)9139.781.007.0011.631
2004Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. (11)131881.15.6911.0815.624
2008Matt Ryan, Atl. (3)162151.00.697.0615.921
2008Joe Flacco, Balt. (18)16186.88.7511.1314.826
2009Josh Freeman, T.B. (17)92041.112.0017.0016.823
2009• Mark Sanchez, NYJ (5)15163.801.337.2013.528
2010Sam Bradford, St.L. (1)162201.13.944.0616.224
2011Christian Ponder, Min. (12)101751.301.3021.0016.124
2011• Blaine Gabbert, Jac. (10)14154.86.797.0011.833
2012Brandon Weeden, Cle. (22)15226.931.137.0015.827
2012Ryan Tannehill, Mia. (8)16206.75.8113.1315.628
2013EJ Manuel, Buff. (16)101971.10.9019.2017.725
2014Teddy Bridgewater, Min. (32)122311.171.0015.0818.621
2014Blake Bortles, Jac. (3)13207.691.1530.0016.227
2016Carson Wentz, Phi. (2)162361.00.889.1317.827
2017Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. (2)12183.58.5821.1714.729
2018Sam Darnold, NYJ (3)132201.311.1511.0817.827
2018• Josh Rosen, Ari. (10)13172.851.0010.0013.132
2020Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. (5)92011.22.5612.3318.429
2021Mac Jones, N.E. (15)172241.29.768.0017.126
2021Justin Fields, Chi. (10)10180.70.9039.1016.330
2021Trevor Lawrence, Jac. (1)17214.711.0020.1216.229
2021Zach Wilson, NYJ (2)13180.69.8514.3115.231
2022Kenny Pickett, Pitt. (20)12190.58.5019.0814.530
2023• Bryce Young, Car. (1)16180.69.6316.0013.628
2024Caleb Williams, Chi. (1)172081.18.3529.0018.422
2025Cam Ward, Ten. (1)17186.88.419.1214.530

More notable for our purposes is what those quarterbacks did in their second seasons. How many were able to turn things around?

Strictly off the numbers, I see four who finished with top-10 per-game numbers in their second year. (None of those four, oddly, ultimately ended up being anything close to what was hoped for – Bortles, Wentz, Trubisky, Fields). Another four at least finished with top-15 numbers (tagged with dots).

That means 20 of the 28 didn’t finish with top-15 numbers in their second season. That lesser group includes Ryan Tannehill and three who later started in Super Bowls – Ryan, Flacco, Darnold.

STRUGGLING ROOKIE QBs (SECOND SEASON)
YearPlayer (pick)StPassTDPIntRunTDRPtsRk
2003David Carr, Hou. (1)11181.821.0911.1814.526
2003Joey Harrington, Det. (3)161801.061.385.0014.027
2004Kyle Boller, Balt. (19)16160.81.6912.0612.931
2005• Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. (11)121991.42.756.2517.715
2009Matt Ryan, Atl. (3)142081.571.004.0717.518
2009Joe Flacco, Balt. (18)162261.31.754.0016.921
2010Josh Freeman, T.B. (17)162161.56.3823.0019.416
2010Mark Sanchez, NYJ (5)162061.06.817.1916.423
2011Sam Bradford, St.L. (1)10216.60.603.0013.532
2012Christian Ponder, Min. (12)161831.13.7516.1316.126
2012Blaine Gabbert, Jac. (10)10166.90.606.0012.931
2013Ryan Tannehill, Mia. (8)162451.501.0615.0620.120
2013Brandon Weeden, Cle. (22)53041.601.608.0022.5--
2014EJ Manuel, Buff. (16)42101.25.7513.2518.3--
2015Blake Bortles, Jac. (3)162772.191.1319.1325.42
2015Teddy Bridgewater, Min. (32)16202.88.5612.1916.030
2017Carson Wentz, Phi. (2)132542.54.5423.0025.72
2018Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. (2)142301.71.8630.2123.210
2019Sam Darnold, NYJ (3)132331.461.005.1519.326
2019Josh Rosen, Mia. (10)3155.331.004.009.5--
2021Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. (5)122081.33.8311.1717.822
2022Justin Fields, Chi. (10)151491.13.7376.5323.06
2022• Trevor Lawrence, Jac. (1)172421.47.4717.2921.811
2022Mac Jones, N.E. (15)142141.00.797.0716.028
2022Zach Wilson, NYJ (2)9188.67.7811.1113.831
2023Kenny Pickett, Pitt. (20)12173.50.335.0811.629
2024• Bryce Young, Car. (1)121961.25.7520.5019.815
2025• Caleb Williams, Chi. (1)172321.59.4123.2421.813

These are just big-picture stats, of course. They don’t preclude Ward from potentially being everything the Titans were hoping for when they picked him No. 1 overall. He made a bunch of cool throws in his first year, with a lively, accurate arm and an usual ability to make off-platform throws. If you put together a highlight tape of his top dozen plays, you would conclude he’s better than the vast majority of the other quarterbacks listed below.

Ward this year will be working with Brian Daboll. Daboll was Buffalo’s offensive coordinator when Josh Allen first became a superstar. He also seems to have more tendency to use his quarterbacks on designed runs – not only Allen but Daniel Jones and Jaxson Dart. How much that trickles into Ward, I don’t know; he’s mobile, but more often thus far has been looking to buy time for pass plays to develop, rather than simply running the ball.

We’re early in the process. Let’s see what they add around him. For now, I’m guessing Ward on my board will be flagged as a modest second quarterback – probably in my top 20, but I’m not locking in on that yet.

—Ian Allan

Older
Newer

Fantasy Index