It’s risky counting on Christian McCaffrey to stay healthy. Foolhardy, some would say. But if he can stay healthy, there should be a nice payoff waiting for those who select him.
McCaffrey appears to be slowing down some. He averaged only 3.9 yards per carry last year – down a yard and a half from two years ago. His backup, Brian Robinson, averaged almost a half yard more per attempt. And McCaffrey will be 30 in June.
But if he can again stay healthy, the stats should be flowing. They use him not only as a heavily featured runner but also has a huge part of their passing game. He caught 102 passes and 7 TDs in the just-completed season.
Adding his rushing and receiving numbers together, McCaffrey tends to zoom up to the elite level statistically, even if not quite as dynamic as he’s been in the past.
Eleven times in the last 10 years, a running back has started over half the season and averaged at least 24 points per game (using PPR scoring). McCaffrey has authored four of those 11 seasons.
Personally, I don’t expect I’ll be picking McCaffrey. I’m more interested in using a later pick on the team’s backup tailback. (I will be interested to get eyes on Jordan James in the preseason). But with that well-documented upside, I’m sure somebody will be picking McCaffrey early.
| RUNNING BACKS AVERAGING 21 POINTS (last 10 years) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Att | Run | No | Rec | Total | TD | FPG |
| 2019 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 16 | 17.9 | 86.7 | 7.3 | 62.8 | 149.5 | 1.21 | 29.5 |
| 2018 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 14 | 18.3 | 89.4 | 4.2 | 41.4 | 130.8 | 1.57 | 26.7 |
| 2016 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 12 | 21.8 | 105.7 | 6.3 | 51.3 | 157.0 | .78 | 26.6 |
| 2016 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 16 | 18.3 | 77.4 | 5.0 | 54.9 | 132.4 | 1.27 | 25.9 |
| 2017 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 15 | 18.6 | 87.0 | 4.3 | 52.5 | 139.5 | 1.27 | 25.8 |
| 2020 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 15 | 12.5 | 62.1 | 5.5 | 50.4 | 112.5 | 1.40 | 25.2 |
| 2023 | Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 16 | 17.0 | 91.2 | 4.2 | 35.3 | 126.4 | 1.31 | 24.7 |
| 2020 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 14 | 22.3 | 111.2 | 3.1 | 25.8 | 137.0 | 1.29 | 24.6 |
| 2025 | Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 17 | 18.3 | 70.7 | 6.0 | 54.4 | 125.1 | 1.00 | 24.5 |
| 2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 16 | 16.3 | 81.7 | 5.7 | 45.1 | 126.8 | .96 | 24.1 |
| 2018 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 16 | 13.7 | 68.6 | 6.7 | 54.2 | 122.8 | .85 | 24.1 |
| 2018 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 15 | 12.9 | 58.9 | 5.4 | 47.3 | 106.1 | 1.27 | 23.6 |
| 2017 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 15 | 21.4 | 86.1 | 5.7 | 43.7 | 129.7 | .73 | 23.0 |
| 2018 | Melvin Gordon, LAC | 12 | 14.6 | 73.8 | 4.2 | 40.8 | 114.6 | 1.22 | 23.0 |
| 2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 13 | 8.5 | 51.5 | 5.5 | 57.7 | 109.2 | 1.03 | 22.5 |
| 2024 | Saquon Barkley, Phil. | 16 | 21.6 | 125.3 | 2.1 | 17.4 | 142.7 | 1.00 | 22.3 |
| 2022 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 17 | 12.0 | 53.8 | 6.3 | 42.5 | 96.3 | 1.06 | 22.3 |
| 2021 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 17 | 19.5 | 106.5 | 2.4 | 21.2 | 127.7 | 1.18 | 22.2 |
| 2025 | Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 17 | 16.9 | 86.9 | 4.6 | 48.2 | 135.2 | .67 | 22.2 |
| 2018 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 15 | 20.3 | 95.6 | 5.1 | 37.8 | 133.4 | .60 | 22.1 |
| 2023 | Kyren Williams, LAR | 11 | 19.4 | 99.3 | 2.9 | 18.5 | 117.8 | 1.21 | 22.0 |
| 2021 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 16 | 12.9 | 56.9 | 4.4 | 40.4 | 97.4 | 1.29 | 21.9 |
| 2018 | James Conner, Pitt. | 13 | 16.5 | 74.8 | 4.2 | 38.2 | 113.1 | 1.05 | 21.8 |
| 2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 15 | 21.5 | 108.7 | 2.1 | 24.2 | 132.9 | 1.07 | 21.8 |
| 2025 | Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 17 | 14.3 | 71.9 | 4.5 | 36.2 | 108.2 | 1.06 | 21.7 |
| 2024 | Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 17 | 14.7 | 83.1 | 3.1 | 30.4 | 113.5 | 1.18 | 21.5 |
| 2025 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 17 | 19.0 | 93.2 | 2.7 | 22.2 | 115.5 | 1.20 | 21.4 |
| 2022 | Christian McCaffrey, Car.-S.F. | 16 | 14.8 | 68.8 | 5.2 | 44.8 | 113.6 | .81 | 21.4 |
| 2019 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 14 | 17.9 | 81.1 | 3.8 | 37.1 | 118.1 | .93 | 21.2 |
| 2020 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 16 | 23.6 | 126.7 | 1.2 | 7.1 | 133.8 | 1.08 | 21.1 |
—Ian Allan
