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Probably over for J.J. McCarthy

Few emerge from starts like his

The Vikings signed Kyler Murray yesterday, a move which had been rumored in recent weeks. I wrote about Murray recently; debatable whether he'll work out. But J.J. McCarthy's future doesn't look complicated.

I went to the files to look at other quarterbacks this century who have started at least 10 games in one of their first two seasons while being as unimpressive as he was last season. Lots of first-round picks, because generally you leave those guys in the lineup for long enough to show their potential (or lack thereof).

Table shows all the passers since 2000 who started at least 10 games in Year 1 or 2 while averaging 180 passing yards or fewer. (McCarthy averaged 163 per game last year.) There are a few guys who are still plying their trade in the league, including Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields, Kenny Pickett, Will Levis and Zach Wilson. Young made strides this year; maybe Carolina has their guy. (Maybe.) Some still believe in Richardson, and Fields. Some.

The rest are backups. And a whole lot of draft busts. Table sorted by passing yards per game.

QBS AVERAGING UNDER 180 PASSING YARDS (YR 1-2), 2000-
YearPlayerGSCmpAttYdsTDIntPass/G
2003Joey Harrington, Det.1630955428801722180.0
2023Bryce Young, Car.1631552728771110179.8
2021Zach Wilson, NYJ132133832334911179.5
2018Josh Rosen, Ari.1321739322781114175.2
2024Will Levis, Ten.1219030120911312174.3
2000Shaun King, T.B.1623342827691813173.1
2023Kenny Pickett, Pitt.12201324207064172.5
2007Vince Young, Ten.152383822546917169.7
2006Vince Young, Ten.1318435721991213169.2
2012Blaine Gabbert, Jac.10162278166296166.2
2024Anthony Richardson, Ind.111262641814812164.9
2025J.J. McCarthy, Min.1014024316321112163.2
2009Mark Sanchez, NYJ1519636424441220162.9
2002David Carr, Hou.162334442592915162.0
2008JaMarcus Russell, Oak.151983682423138161.5
2004Kyle Boller, Balt.1625846425591311159.9
2007Tarvaris Jackson, Min.121712941911912159.3
2011Blaine Gabbert, Jac.1421041322141211158.1
2011Tim Tebow, Den.111262711729126157.2
2010Jimmy Clausen, Car.10157299155839155.8
2006Bruce Gradkowski, T.B.11177328166199151.0
2022Justin Fields, Chi.1519231822421711149.5
2005Kyle Orton, Chi.151903681869913124.6
2000Akili Smith, Cin.11118267125336113.9

In general, inclusion on a table with Akili Smith and Tim Tebow isn't a good sign. I don't think the odds of McCarthy starting another game for the Vikings are good, and I'm not sure he'll start anywhere else, either.

--Andy Richardson

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