Free agency is poised to kick off, and there are a decent crop of wide receivers hitting the open market, with Alec Pierce leading the way. He ascended last year for the Colts, looking like a guy who’s now going to cash in.
Other receivers headed for the open market include Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Romeo Doubs, Rashid Shaheed, Jauan Jennings and Wan’Dale Robinson.
The Bills kicked things off earlier today, swinging a trade for DJ Moore. He’ll be their lead guy. (The Moore trade also makes me more comfortable in buying into the idea of Luther Burden being one of this year’s breakout receivers.)
There were be some notable shuffling in the next week. Typically at this position, however, there are far more misses than hits.
In the last 10 years, 47 wide receivers have posted top-40 numbers (using PPR scoring), then switched to a new team in the offseason – be it by trade or free agency. But only 12 of those 47 receivers have been posted better numbers with their new team. (In the chart below, I’ve got them tagged with black dots).
Instead, 20 of those 47 receivers – darn half – have seen their stats fall by at least 30 percent in their first season with their new team.
| TOP 40 RECEIVERS CHANGING TEAMS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yds | TD | PPG | Rk | New | Diff |
| 2015 | Travis Benjamin, Cle. | 68 | 966 | 6 | 201.8 | 28 | S.D. | -31% |
| 2015 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 52 | 473 | 10 | 202.7 | 27 | LAR | -27% |
| 2015 | Marvin Jones, Cin. | 65 | 816 | 4 | 173.9 | 36 | Det. | -1% |
| 2015 | • Anquan Boldin, S.F. | 69 | 789 | 4 | 171.9 | 40 | Det. | 1% |
| 2016 | Cameron Meredith, Chi. | 66 | 888 | 4 | 183.5 | 38 | N.O. | -86% |
| 2016 | Terrelle Pryor, Cle. | 77 | 1007 | 5 | 213.9 | 20 | Was. | -77% |
| 2016 | Pierre Garcon, Was. | 79 | 1041 | 3 | 201.1 | 24 | S.F. | -55% |
| 2016 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 78 | 1173 | 8 | 246.3 | 10 | N.E. | -10% |
| 2017 | Mike Wallace, Balt. | 52 | 748 | 4 | 151.2 | 38 | Phil. | -100% |
| 2017 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 69 | 838 | 6 | 188.4 | 24 | Balt. | -88% |
| 2017 | Paul Richardson, Sea. | 44 | 703 | 6 | 150.3 | 39 | Was. | -61% |
| 2017 | Michael Crabtree, Oak. | 58 | 618 | 8 | 171.8 | 30 | Balt. | -23% |
| 2017 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 112 | 987 | 9 | 264.0 | 4 | Cle. | -17% |
| 2017 | • Brandin Cooks, N.E. | 65 | 1082 | 7 | 221.2 | 15 | LAR | 10% |
| 2018 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 104 | 1297 | 15 | 323.7 | 5 | N.E. | -95% |
| 2018 | Adam Humphries, T.B. | 76 | 816 | 5 | 188.7 | 24 | Ten. | -54% |
| 2018 | Demaryius Thomas, 2TM | 59 | 677 | 5 | 156.7 | 39 | NYJ | -46% |
| 2018 | Golden Tate, 2TM | 74 | 795 | 4 | 182.9 | 31 | NYG | -16% |
| 2018 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 77 | 1052 | 6 | 233.4 | 15 | Cle. | -13% |
| 2019 | Emmanuel Sanders, 2TM | 66 | 869 | 5 | 190.7 | 32 | N.O. | -14% |
| 2019 | • DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 104 | 1165 | 7 | 270.6 | 4 | Ari. | 8% |
| 2019 | • Robby Anderson, NYJ | 52 | 779 | 5 | 162.3 | 40 | Car. | 39% |
| 2019 | • Stefon Diggs, Min. | 63 | 1130 | 6 | 218.1 | 21 | Buff. | 51% |
| 2020 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 53 | 879 | 8 | 188.9 | 32 | Mia. | -95% |
| 2020 | Curtis Samuel, Car. | 77 | 851 | 5 | 212.1 | 24 | Was. | -95% |
| 2020 | Corey Davis, Ten. | 65 | 984 | 5 | 193.4 | 29 | NYJ | -45% |
| 2020 | Nelson Agholor, L.V. | 48 | 896 | 8 | 185.6 | 34 | N.E. | -44% |
| 2020 | Marvin Jones, Det. | 76 | 978 | 9 | 227.8 | 18 | Jac. | -21% |
| 2021 | Hollywood Brown, Balt. | 91 | 1008 | 6 | 228.3 | 21 | Ari. | -32% |
| 2021 | Russell Gage, Atl. | 66 | 770 | 4 | 167.0 | 37 | T.B. | -25% |
| 2021 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 123 | 1553 | 11 | 344.3 | 2 | L.V. | -3% |
| 2021 | • Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 111 | 1239 | 9 | 298.5 | 6 | Mia. | 16% |
| 2021 | • Christian Kirk, Ari. | 77 | 982 | 5 | 208.0 | 26 | Jac. | 17% |
| 2021 | • Amari Cooper, Dall. | 68 | 865 | 8 | 202.5 | 27 | Cle. | 22% |
| 2021 | • A.J. Brown, Ten. | 63 | 869 | 5 | 180.9 | 33 | Phil. | 68% |
| 2022 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, K.C. | 78 | 933 | 3 | 189.3 | 27 | N.E. | -68% |
| 2022 | Allen Lazard, G.B. | 60 | 788 | 6 | 174.8 | 34 | NYJ | -66% |
| 2022 | • Jakobi Meyers, N.E. | 67 | 804 | 6 | 184.3 | 29 | L.V. | 19% |
| 2022 | • Adam Thielen, Min. | 70 | 716 | 6 | 180.0 | 31 | Car. | 28% |
| 2022 | • DJ Moore, Car. | 63 | 888 | 7 | 199.1 | 25 | Chi. | 45% |
| 2023 | Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 107 | 1183 | 8 | 275.8 | 9 | Hou. | -56% |
| 2023 | Keenan Allen, LAC | 108 | 1243 | 7 | 281.4 | 8 | Chi. | -34% |
| 2023 | Calvin Ridley, Jac. | 76 | 1016 | 8 | 229.9 | 18 | Ten. | -12% |
| 2024 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 67 | 710 | 6 | 175.0 | 38 | Sea. | -31% |
| 2024 | Davante Adams, 2TM | 85 | 1063 | 8 | 241.3 | 12 | LAR | -8% |
| 2024 | DK Metcalf, Sea. | 66 | 992 | 5 | 195.2 | 31 | Pitt. | -4% |
| 2024 | Keenan Allen, Chi. | 70 | 744 | 7 | 186.4 | 34 | LAC | -2% |
—Ian Allan

