Starting pitching depth can make or break a fantasy roster, especially in deeper formats where finding reliable innings later in the draft is critical.
Fantasy managers often focus on the top of the pitching pool, but league-winning value is frequently found much later in drafts. Identifying rebound candidates and overlooked arms can provide critical depth at a fraction of the cost, while avoiding overpriced options helps prevent early-round mistakes that are difficult to recover from. Here are several starting pitchers who stand out as potential values in 2026 drafts, along with a few whose current price carries more risk than reward.
Sleepers
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
Are we really ready to give up on Nola so soon? The right-hander was once among the elite of fantasy starting pitchers, known for rare durability and pinpoint control. However, his ADP has dropped near 200 in NFBC leagues this year after a very subpar season in which he posted an ERA above 6.00 while battling multiple injuries.
For all of Nola’s struggles last year, there’s still a strong case for a rebound in 2026. Despite groin and rib injuries that sidelined him, he maintained a respectable 3.46 K/BB ratio that improved even further across eight starts after the All-Star break. While the results were ugly, his ERA estimators told a different story (4.58 FIP, 3.81 SIERA). The team context also remains strong for wins on a Phillies club with continued World Series aspirations. Nola has always relied more on command than velocity, but the radar gun has also shown a slight uptick this spring, along with strong results in exhibition play and the WBC, if you needed more reason to believe in a rebound.
Cody Ponce, Toronto Blue Jays
There’s a chance Ponce proves to be the free-agent bargain of the offseason after signing a three-year, $30 million contract with the Blue Jays. The former Pirates swingman revitalized his career in the KBO last year, adding significant velocity and developing an excellent changeup. The results were tremendous, including a 1.89 ERA and a remarkable 6.15 K/BB ratio.
He has arrived in Spring Training dealing, allowing only one run in eight innings, and the velocity gains compared to his days in Pittsburgh have been even more eye-opening. It’s true Ponce will face tougher matchups in the AL East, but the first trip around the league often works to a pitcher’s advantage. Like Nola, the team context should help his win potential, and the price is right with an ADP near 235 in early NFBC Main Event drafts.
Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels
Late in drafts, fantasy managers often chase upside when they might be better off taking the sure thing. Kikuchi is that sure thing, relatively speaking. He has established himself as a durable workhorse, averaging 173.2 innings over the last three years with a sub-4.00 ERA.
One of the biggest reasons for Kikuchi’s discounted price is the deterioration of his control last season, when his walk rate climbed to 3.7 BB/9. Despite those issues and a slight dip in velocity, his ERA estimators still hovered around 4.00. The addition of experienced pitching coach Mike Maddux could also prove beneficial. Kikuchi won’t singlehandedly win leagues, but he’s a solid stabilizing arm at the bottom of a rotation with an ADP near 350.
Braxton Garrett, Miami Marlins
Garrett presents a strong buy-low opportunity as he returns from surgery and sits in the shadow of several higher-upside arms in Miami’s rotation. After breakout seasons in 2022 and 2023, the former first-round pick made only seven starts in 2024 and did not pitch at all last season.
The encouraging news is that the typically soft-tossing lefty has added velocity this spring, which is an intriguing development given that he already possessed elite control. Since the start of 2023, Garrett has posted an outstanding 1.5 BB/9 along with nearly a strikeout per inning. He’s unlikely to be a workhorse given his recent health history, but he could deliver strong value at an ADP near 300.
Busts
Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies
Fresh off signing a five-year extension with the Phillies, Luzardo lands on the bust list. It’s admittedly difficult to label him a bust based solely on last year’s performance. In fact, he arguably underperformed his 3.92 ERA due to several blow-up outings while tipping pitches. After returning from injury, Luzardo’s strikeout rate climbed back above 10 K/9 for the third time in four seasons, and his FIP finished below 3.00.
The concern is the price relative to the risk. Luzardo is being drafted like a second-tier ace with an ADP near 55 in NFBC Main Events, but his injury history is extensive. That includes arm and back injuries in 2024, a forearm issue in 2022, hand problems in 2021, and a lat injury in 2019. There’s a reason Philadelphia was able to buy low on Luzardo via trade last year, and many pitchers drafted around him offer similar upside with far fewer durability concerns.
Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers
When a young player makes an immediate impact, it’s easy to overlook the warts that follow. Misiorowski is a prime example. He opened his MLB career with a 1.13 ERA across his first three starts last June before experiencing an uneven rest of the season. Over his next 12 appearances, he posted a 5.40 ERA while battling inconsistent control.
There’s plenty of reason to be optimistic about his long-term future, but fantasy managers will likely have to live with the growing pains in the short term. Misiorowski posted a 5.4 BB/9 in the minors, and while that number improved to 4.4 at Triple-A last season, it remains problematic. Milwaukee’s track record with pitching development likely contributes to his ADP near 110, but expecting elite results while dealing with control issues and a likely limited workload at age 24 feels optimistic.
Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins
Ober is coming off a disappointing season in which he battled a hip injury, and early signs for 2026 haven’t been encouraging as he has experienced a drop in velocity this spring. The hip issue and resulting velocity loss were major factors in his struggles last season, when he posted an ERA above 5.00 while his strikeout rate dropped by more than two K/9 compared to 2024.
His control has remained elite, evidenced by a 1.9 BB/9 that aligns with his career norms, but Ober’s strikeout rate is now well below league average. That’s problematic for an extreme fly-ball pitcher who has long battled home run issues. If the velocity doesn’t rebound in April, Ober could find himself at risk of losing his spot in Minnesota’s rotation.
Cristian Javier, Houston Astros
Javier carries many of the same velocity and health concerns as Ober. Early in his career, he looked like a near-elite fantasy starter thanks to premium velocity and exceptional spin rates. Those traits began to decline in 2023, and since then he has undergone Tommy John surgery while struggling to regain his once-elite strikeout ability.
The velocity remained down last season following elbow surgery, and the results reflected that drop-off. There have been few encouraging signs this spring, and his production since 2023 resembles that of a below-average starter, highlighted by a 4.47 ERA. With extreme fly-ball tendencies, Javier also carries significant risk of further ERA inflation. His ADP around 400 is relatively cheap, but there are higher-upside options available in that range of drafts.
--Seth Trachtman
