The Vikings signed Kyler Murray, and they’ve also re-upped with Carson Wentz. And maybe J.J. McCarthy can turn things around. Between the three of them, is it now safe to conclude that Justin Jefferson will turn things around?
Jefferson, most agree, is one of the top few wide receivers in the league. But he was pretty ordinary last year, averaging only 62 yards per game, and with only 2 TDs all year. He averaged over 90 yards in each of his four previous seasons, with a league-high 128 catches for 1,809 yards back in 2022. That was with Kirk Cousins at quarterback.
Can Murray (seemingly Plan A) deliver those kind of results? On the one hand, he’s definitely an upgrade over 2025 McCarthy. And Murray did just fine connecting with DeAndre Hopkins back in 2020. Hopkins was a Jefferson-type talent at that time, putting up 115 catches for 1,407 yards.
But it remains to be seen if Murray can successfully operate Kevin O’Connell’s offense. When he was effective early in his career in Arizona, Murray was mostly throwing quick, short passes, and setting up plays with scrambles. With O’Connell, there will be move reading of coverages involved, and more downfield throws.
Murray wasn’t effective in his season-plus with Marvin Harrison, with Arizona’s passing game last year getting a lot better after Jacoby Brissett took over.
And then there’s the Jefferson side of the equation. As great as he’s been at challenging defenses downfield (he averaged 15 yards per catch in his first five seasons) he has been as effective around the end zone, where the field gets more crowded. Inside the 10-yard line, he’s caught only 21 of 66 career attempts, and with only 14 TDs.
Over the last four years, 45 players have seen at least 20 targets in that part of the field. Jefferson among that group ranks next-to-last in both completion percentage and touchdown percentage.
To me, it doesn’t seem likely that Murray and Jefferson are going to become an effective combo around the end zone, where Murray is consistently (and effectively) going to him when they move into that part of the field.
Vikings have a motivated player at least. Murray probably will be working hard to rehab his career. But I expect Jefferson will be selected before I will be willing to pull the trigger.
| RECEIVING INSIDE THE 10 (last 4 yrs) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt | Com | Pct | TD | TD% |
| WR Romeo Doubs | 21 | 14 | 66.7% | 12 | 57.1% |
| TE George Kittle | 28 | 19 | 67.9% | 15 | 53.6% |
| TE Dalton Schultz | 21 | 14 | 66.7% | 11 | 52.4% |
| RB Christian McCaffrey | 25 | 19 | 76.0% | 13 | 52.0% |
| TE Zach Ertz | 27 | 16 | 59.3% | 14 | 51.9% |
| TE Mark Andrews | 28 | 16 | 57.1% | 14 | 50.0% |
| TE Sam LaPorta | 22 | 15 | 68.2% | 11 | 50.0% |
| WR Mike Evans | 22 | 11 | 50.0% | 11 | 50.0% |
| WR Michael Pittman | 25 | 17 | 68.0% | 12 | 48.0% |
| WR Tee Higgins | 29 | 14 | 48.3% | 13 | 44.8% |
| TE Jonnu Smith | 23 | 16 | 69.6% | 10 | 43.5% |
| WR Nico Collins | 30 | 15 | 50.0% | 13 | 43.3% |
| WR Jakobi Meyers | 26 | 15 | 57.7% | 11 | 42.3% |
| WR Amon-Ra St. Brown | 55 | 35 | 63.6% | 23 | 41.8% |
| WR DJ Moore | 24 | 16 | 66.7% | 10 | 41.7% |
| TE Travis Kelce | 45 | 30 | 66.7% | 18 | 40.0% |
| TE Isaiah Likely | 20 | 12 | 60.0% | 8 | 40.0% |
| WR Stefon Diggs | 28 | 16 | 57.1% | 11 | 39.3% |
| WR Davante Adams | 65 | 33 | 50.8% | 25 | 38.5% |
| TE Tyler Higbee | 21 | 10 | 47.6% | 8 | 38.1% |
| WR DeAndre Hopkins | 21 | 9 | 42.9% | 8 | 38.1% |
| WR A.J. Brown | 24 | 12 | 50.0% | 9 | 37.5% |
| WR Drake London | 35 | 16 | 45.7% | 13 | 37.1% |
| WR Keenan Allen | 33 | 15 | 45.5% | 12 | 36.4% |
| WR Ja'Marr Chase | 25 | 12 | 48.0% | 9 | 36.0% |
| WR Jordan Addison | 23 | 14 | 60.9% | 8 | 34.8% |
| WR Adam Thielen | 23 | 13 | 56.5% | 8 | 34.8% |
| WR Cooper Kupp | 26 | 14 | 53.8% | 9 | 34.6% |
| WR Tyreek Hill | 33 | 17 | 51.5% | 11 | 33.3% |
| TE David Njoku | 30 | 12 | 40.0% | 10 | 33.3% |
| WR Puka Nacua | 21 | 13 | 61.9% | 7 | 33.3% |
| TE Cade Otton | 21 | 10 | 47.6% | 7 | 33.3% |
| WR DK Metcalf | 31 | 11 | 35.5% | 10 | 32.3% |
| TE Jake Ferguson | 28 | 14 | 50.0% | 9 | 32.1% |
| WR Rashee Rice | 26 | 17 | 65.4% | 8 | 30.8% |
| WR Chris Godwin | 30 | 16 | 53.3% | 9 | 30.0% |
| WR Christian Watson | 20 | 8 | 40.0% | 6 | 30.0% |
| TE Hunter Henry | 27 | 12 | 44.4% | 8 | 29.6% |
| TE Trey McBride | 25 | 11 | 44.0% | 7 | 28.0% |
| WR Deebo Samuel | 22 | 14 | 63.6% | 6 | 27.3% |
| WR Courtland Sutton | 30 | 11 | 36.7% | 8 | 26.7% |
| WR Garrett Wilson | 33 | 14 | 42.4% | 8 | 24.2% |
| WR CeeDee Lamb | 33 | 15 | 45.5% | 8 | 24.2% |
| WR Justin Jefferson | 48 | 16 | 33.3% | 10 | 20.8% |
| WR George Pickens | 24 | 6 | 25.0% | 4 | 16.7% |
Note: On the list, only four players have caught touchdowns on under 25 percent of their targets inside the 10. Cowboys have two of them.
—Ian Allan
