There may be no hazier backfield this year than that of the Super Bowl champs. Their No. 1 a year ago is in Kansas City. Their No. 2 a year ago tore his ACL in mid-January. How the backfield will shake out is one of fantasy community's bigger debates.
Some are confident first-rounder Jadarian Price (pictured) will be a breakout rookie. "They wouldn't have drafted him that early otherwise," the argument goes. Others are making the case for originally undrafted George Holani. He's received some positive press out of OTAs, and was the No. 2 behind Kenneth Walker after Charbonnet got hurt in last year's playoffs. And then there's free agent signing Emanuel Wilson, who fared pretty well with his chances behind Josh Jacobs in Green Bay.
Checking our rankings, you'll find Fantasy Index in the "committee backfield" camp. None of the named backs shows up in our top 30 at the position in PPR. All four show up in the top 60 or so. There will be movement in the July 27th update, and again over the course of the preseason as we get more camp reports and have a better idea how Charbonnet is progressing in his rehab. But if you're drafting right now and following our rankings, you'll be letting someone else select Price.
Here's my take, which I'll admit has evolved a little since the magazine.
Initially, I thought Wilson might be a credible sleeper. If Charbonnet misses the first half of the season, which seems possible (nine months from his injury would be mid-October), Wilson has the significant experience edge over a rookie and one with 30 NFL carries. Perhaps more importantly, he's more than 15 pounds heavier than the other two candidates, raising the possibility he's the favorite for goal-line work, at least while Charbonnet is out. Working against him is that Green Bay had no interest in bringing him back and Seattle signed him to a minimum type contract (1 year, $1.6 million).
Holani has his fans, including our own Luke Wilson. He was productive at Boise State (1,308 yards and 13 TDs in his last full season), and reports indicate he'll have a role. He's the incumbent, seemingly giving him an early edge in the offense. Negative is that he hasn't shown anything as a runner with his limited opportunities (30 carries for 93 yards for his career, which is 3.3 per attempt). His role might well be as a passing-downs back (Price caught only 15 passes in 41 college games), which carries some PPR value but isn't enough to make him a desirable selection if Price and/or Wilson are getting the most rushing work.
As for Price. I don't place a lot of stock in the "they drafted him in the first round, they'll be featuring him" argument. Seattle just won a Super Bowl. They have a nice little grace period to do whatever they want with their roster -- featuring rookies, bringing them along slowly, using a two- and three-back committee. We can reasonably say that Price probably won't play in obvious passing situations, either due to his inexperience as a receiver or in pass protection, and if he's a two-down back there's limited fantasy appeal.
That first-round draft capital is important, but let's look at running backs drafted near the end of that round. In the last 20 years, there have been 19 running backs selected in the first round, but outside the top 20 picks. Table below shows the rookie numbers for those players and ranking at the position in PPR leagues.
Of those previous 19 backs, five finished in the top 20: Doug Martin, Najee Harris, Chris Johnson, Joseph Addai and Jahvid Best. Three others (Josh Jacobs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Laurence Maroney) made it into the top 30. Eight of 19; that's 40 percent, which isn't bad. So if you select Price where he's being drafted these days (a little earlier than we're ranking him), that's the hope.
The other 60 percent finished outside the top 30; about half outside the top 35. Most of that group didn't have a passing-game role, guys like Sony Michel, David Wilson and former Seahawk first-rounder Rashaad Penny.
| FIRST-ROUND RBS (PICKS 21ST-32ND), ROOKIE NUMBERS (2006-2025) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Run | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 2012 | 31 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1454 | 49 | 472 | 12 | 2 |
| 2021 | 24 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 1200 | 74 | 467 | 10 | 3 |
| 2008 | 24 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 1228 | 43 | 260 | 10 | 11 |
| 2006 | 30 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 1081 | 40 | 325 | 8 | 13 |
| 2010 | 30 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 555 | 58 | 487 | 6 | 20 |
| 2019 | 24 | Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 1150 | 20 | 166 | 7 | 21 |
| 2020 | 32 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 803 | 36 | 297 | 5 | 22 |
| 2006 | 21 | Laurence Maroney, N.E. | 745 | 22 | 194 | 7 | 27 |
| 2018 | 31 | Sony Michel, N.E. | 931 | 7 | 50 | 6 | 34 |
| 2025 | 22 | Omarion Hampton, LAC | 545 | 32 | 192 | 5 | 35 |
| 2009 | 31 | Beanie Wells, Ari. | 793 | 12 | 143 | 7 | 37 |
| 2006 | 27 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 501 | 33 | 313 | 2 | 39 |
| 2011 | 28 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 474 | 11 | 46 | 5 | 46 |
| 2012 | 32 | David Wilson, NYG | 358 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 51 |
| 2009 | 27 | Donald Brown, Ind. | 281 | 11 | 169 | 3 | 60 |
| 2018 | 27 | Rashaad Penny, Sea. | 419 | 9 | 75 | 2 | 68 |
| 2008 | 22 | Felix Jones, Dall. | 266 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 75 |
| 2008 | 23 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 58 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 128 |
| 2021 | 25 | Travis Etienne, Jac. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
I'll be paying close attention to this team the next couple of months. I want to see if Wilson is getting much work with the starters, if Holani is getting significant reps, and how Charbonnet is progressing from injury. I'll be participating in a best-ball draft or two over the next few weeks, and I'll have some interest in all these players depending on where they're available.
But right now, it seems like I'm probably not high enough on Price or Holani (who's getting the most recent hype) to draft either one. I'd rather select Charbonnet (if he falls far enough) and hope he's in the lineup by Week 7 or so. Because when he is I think he'll be the main guy near the goal line and in passing situations, as he was last year, and the player most likely to help fantasy teams the second half of the year.
--Andy Richardson
