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Tougher road for Patriots

New England played easiest schedule last year

I think it’s safe to say the Patriots will be declining this year. They’re not sneaking up on anyone, and that’s a team that was helped along by scheduling – more so than you might realize.

Strictly off wins and losses, New England last year played the easiest schedule in over 20 years. Its opponents went a combined 113-176. That’s 3-14 against the Patriots, and 110-162 against the rest of the league.

Typically with these numbers, I prefer to leave out team’s own games – removing the polluting factor of winning teams appearing to play easier schedules and losing teams tending to face harder slates. But however you slice it, that 2025 New England schedule chalks out as the easiest of the 32-team era. (The league moved to eight divisions back in 2002.)

With the numbers in front of me, I notice that the addition of a 17th game has tended to result in a slightly larger spread in schedule difficulty. Of the eight easiest schedules since 2002, five have come in the last four years.

Below see the 33 teams in the last 24 seasons that have played opponents that won fewer than 45 percent of their games against other teams. It’s happened multiple times four years in a row. But it happened only 24 times in their previous 20 years – about once per year.

There were three teams last year with unusually easy schedules, with Dallas and Denver also in that group. Not up on the New England level, but they also had creampuff schedules.

EASIEST SCHEDULES SINCE 2002
YearTeamWLTPct
2025New England1101620.407
2024Miami1121600.412
2010Kansas City1001400.417
2007Seattle1001400.417
2023Atlanta1141580.419
2022San Francisco1161551.428
2007Arizona1031370.429
2023New Orleans1171550.430
2025• Dallas1171550.433
2017Tennessee1041360.433
2007Cleveland1041360.433
2003Kansas City1041360.433
2017Jacksonville1051350.438
2012Atlanta1051350.438
2008San Francisco1051341.440
2025• Denver1181522.441
2018Chicago1041324.442
2017Baltimore1061340.442
2012Cincinnati1061340.442
2010St. Louis1061340.442
2009New Orleans1061340.442
2004Atlanta1061340.442
2020Green Bay1061331.444
2024Washington1211510.445
2022LA Chargers1201502.445
2005Seattle1071330.446
2004Seattle1071330.446
2003St. Louis1071330.446
2006Chicago1071330.446
2008Buffalo1071330.446
2015NY Jets1071330.446
2014Houston1071321.448
2016Seattle1071321.448

For the upcoming season, Drake Maye and the boys project to have a slightly below-average schedule, facing opponents that went a combined 148-140-1 last year. So if they play similarly to they did last year, they should dip across the board – wins, points, yards, etc.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, 2026
TeamWLTPct
Cleveland1241650.429
New Orleans1251631.434
Cincinnati1301590.450
Indianapolis1341541.465
Atlanta1341541.465
Detroit1341532.467
Houston1361512.474
Tennessee1371511.476
Baltimore1381501.479
Philadelphia1381492.481
Jacksonville1411471.490
Tampa Bay1411462.491
Dallas1421461.493
Pittsburgh1431460.495
San Francisco1431451.497
NY Giants1431442.498
Washington1441432.502
Denver1481410.512
Seattle1481401.514
New England1481401.514
LA Rams1481392.516
NY Jets1491391.517
Minnesota1491382.519
Carolina1501381.521
LA Chargers1511380.522
Buffalo1521361.528
Las Vegas1531360.529
Kansas City1551340.536
Green Bay1551331.538
Arizona1551331.538
Miami1561321.542
Chicago1581292.550

—Ian Allan

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