I think it’s safe to say the Patriots will be declining this year. They’re not sneaking up on anyone, and that’s a team that was helped along by scheduling – more so than you might realize.
Strictly off wins and losses, New England last year played the easiest schedule in over 20 years. Its opponents went a combined 113-176. That’s 3-14 against the Patriots, and 110-162 against the rest of the league.
Typically with these numbers, I prefer to leave out team’s own games – removing the polluting factor of winning teams appearing to play easier schedules and losing teams tending to face harder slates. But however you slice it, that 2025 New England schedule chalks out as the easiest of the 32-team era. (The league moved to eight divisions back in 2002.)
With the numbers in front of me, I notice that the addition of a 17th game has tended to result in a slightly larger spread in schedule difficulty. Of the eight easiest schedules since 2002, five have come in the last four years.
Below see the 33 teams in the last 24 seasons that have played opponents that won fewer than 45 percent of their games against other teams. It’s happened multiple times four years in a row. But it happened only 24 times in their previous 20 years – about once per year.
There were three teams last year with unusually easy schedules, with Dallas and Denver also in that group. Not up on the New England level, but they also had creampuff schedules.
| EASIEST SCHEDULES SINCE 2002 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| 2025 | New England | 110 | 162 | 0 | .407 |
| 2024 | Miami | 112 | 160 | 0 | .412 |
| 2010 | Kansas City | 100 | 140 | 0 | .417 |
| 2007 | Seattle | 100 | 140 | 0 | .417 |
| 2023 | Atlanta | 114 | 158 | 0 | .419 |
| 2022 | San Francisco | 116 | 155 | 1 | .428 |
| 2007 | Arizona | 103 | 137 | 0 | .429 |
| 2023 | New Orleans | 117 | 155 | 0 | .430 |
| 2025 | • Dallas | 117 | 155 | 0 | .433 |
| 2017 | Tennessee | 104 | 136 | 0 | .433 |
| 2007 | Cleveland | 104 | 136 | 0 | .433 |
| 2003 | Kansas City | 104 | 136 | 0 | .433 |
| 2017 | Jacksonville | 105 | 135 | 0 | .438 |
| 2012 | Atlanta | 105 | 135 | 0 | .438 |
| 2008 | San Francisco | 105 | 134 | 1 | .440 |
| 2025 | • Denver | 118 | 152 | 2 | .441 |
| 2018 | Chicago | 104 | 132 | 4 | .442 |
| 2017 | Baltimore | 106 | 134 | 0 | .442 |
| 2012 | Cincinnati | 106 | 134 | 0 | .442 |
| 2010 | St. Louis | 106 | 134 | 0 | .442 |
| 2009 | New Orleans | 106 | 134 | 0 | .442 |
| 2004 | Atlanta | 106 | 134 | 0 | .442 |
| 2020 | Green Bay | 106 | 133 | 1 | .444 |
| 2024 | Washington | 121 | 151 | 0 | .445 |
| 2022 | LA Chargers | 120 | 150 | 2 | .445 |
| 2005 | Seattle | 107 | 133 | 0 | .446 |
| 2004 | Seattle | 107 | 133 | 0 | .446 |
| 2003 | St. Louis | 107 | 133 | 0 | .446 |
| 2006 | Chicago | 107 | 133 | 0 | .446 |
| 2008 | Buffalo | 107 | 133 | 0 | .446 |
| 2015 | NY Jets | 107 | 133 | 0 | .446 |
| 2014 | Houston | 107 | 132 | 1 | .448 |
| 2016 | Seattle | 107 | 132 | 1 | .448 |
For the upcoming season, Drake Maye and the boys project to have a slightly below-average schedule, facing opponents that went a combined 148-140-1 last year. So if they play similarly to they did last year, they should dip across the board – wins, points, yards, etc.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, 2026 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| Cleveland | 124 | 165 | 0 | .429 |
| New Orleans | 125 | 163 | 1 | .434 |
| Cincinnati | 130 | 159 | 0 | .450 |
| Indianapolis | 134 | 154 | 1 | .465 |
| Atlanta | 134 | 154 | 1 | .465 |
| Detroit | 134 | 153 | 2 | .467 |
| Houston | 136 | 151 | 2 | .474 |
| Tennessee | 137 | 151 | 1 | .476 |
| Baltimore | 138 | 150 | 1 | .479 |
| Philadelphia | 138 | 149 | 2 | .481 |
| Jacksonville | 141 | 147 | 1 | .490 |
| Tampa Bay | 141 | 146 | 2 | .491 |
| Dallas | 142 | 146 | 1 | .493 |
| Pittsburgh | 143 | 146 | 0 | .495 |
| San Francisco | 143 | 145 | 1 | .497 |
| NY Giants | 143 | 144 | 2 | .498 |
| Washington | 144 | 143 | 2 | .502 |
| Denver | 148 | 141 | 0 | .512 |
| Seattle | 148 | 140 | 1 | .514 |
| New England | 148 | 140 | 1 | .514 |
| LA Rams | 148 | 139 | 2 | .516 |
| NY Jets | 149 | 139 | 1 | .517 |
| Minnesota | 149 | 138 | 2 | .519 |
| Carolina | 150 | 138 | 1 | .521 |
| LA Chargers | 151 | 138 | 0 | .522 |
| Buffalo | 152 | 136 | 1 | .528 |
| Las Vegas | 153 | 136 | 0 | .529 |
| Kansas City | 155 | 134 | 0 | .536 |
| Green Bay | 155 | 133 | 1 | .538 |
| Arizona | 155 | 133 | 1 | .538 |
| Miami | 156 | 132 | 1 | .542 |
| Chicago | 158 | 129 | 2 | .550 |
—Ian Allan

