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Beware of schedule difficulty

Upon further review, KC's schedule looks just fine

Kansas City is supposed to play the league’s hardest schedule, but it depends on which numbers you use. If the betting dollars are of any value, it instead is more likely to play a better than average slate.

Let’s not write off Patrick Mahomes just yet, it seems. Certainly not because of his schedule.

With strength of schedule, the picture that is ultimately painted is heavily weighted on the underlying assumptions.

If we use win-loss records from last year as a gauge of how teams will perform in 2026, KC will have the hardest schedule. Its first 16 games are against teams that went 152-120 last year. That looks worrying. (Here, I’m leaving out Week 18, since most fantasy leagues are done at that time.)

But teams change every year, with new coaches, rosters and schemes. Last year’s 11-6 playoff team can quickly turn into this year’s 6-11 also-ran.

So with strength of schedule, better perhaps to rely not on 2025 win-loss records, but expected win-loss records for 2026. For those, a reasonable guide are the win-loss totals posted by the betting market. Those are the points where the wagering public is split evenly, making it difficult to place a bet on the over or the under.

Plugging in those numbers, Kansas City switches from 152-120 to 134-138, tying for the 8th-easiest schedule. That’s quite a change.

Similarly, another team in the AFC West, Las Vegas, switches from the 4th-hardest schedule to being tied with Kansas City.

Two other teams have schedules that get at least 10 games easier when using this approach – New England and Chicago. I’ve got these four teams in bold in the chart below.

There are six teams, on the other hand, with schedules that look at least nine games harder when dipping into the over-under win totals. Indianapolis goes from 121-150-1 to a middle-of-the-pack 135-137. In the chart, I’ve got those teams tagged with dots.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (O/U win totals)
TeamWinLossPctOriginal
Detroit124148.456125-146-1
• New Orleans127145.467117-154-1
NY Jets129143.474137-134-1
Cincinnati130142.478125-147-0
• Cleveland131141.482118-154-0
Baltimore132140.485128-143-1
Denver132140.485137-135-0
• Tennessee134138.493125-146-1
Philadelphia134138.493134-136-2
Las Vegas134138.493147-125-0
Kansas City134138.493152-120-0
• Indianapolis135137.496121-150-1
NY Giants135137.496132-138-2
LA Rams135137.496134-136-2
Seattle135137.496136-135-1
Minnesota135137.496138-132-2
Pittsburgh136136.500135-137-0
LA Chargers137135.504137-135-0
San Francisco137135.504140-131-1
New England137135.504146-125-1
Washington138134.507137-134-1
Green Bay138134.507146-125-1
Houston139133.511133-137-2
Chicago139133.511149-121-2
Jacksonville140132.515133-138-1
Tampa Bay140132.515135-135-2
Dallas140132.515137-134-1
• Atlanta141131.518126-145-1
Buffalo141131.518149-122-1
Carolina143129.526142-129-1
Miami143129.526142-129-1
Arizona147125.540143-128-1

—Ian Allan

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