The Vikings have confirmed the obvious by naming Kyler Murray their Week 1 starting quarterback. It's a passer friendly system, good offensive mind overseeing things, and pretty strong pair of wide receivers. Could work out nicely. For J.J. McCarthy, not so much.
McCarthy was a first-round pick in 2024, taken ahead of Bo Nix (not working out too well). I went to the files to look at other quarterbacks this century who have started at least 10 games in one of their first two seasons while being as unimpressive as he was last season. Lots of first-round picks, because generally you leave those guys in the lineup for long enough to show their potential (or lack thereof).
Table shows all the passers since 2000 who started at least 10 games in Year 1 or 2 while averaging 180 passing yards or fewer. (McCarthy averaged 163 per game last year.) There are a few guys who are still plying their trade in the league, with Bryce Young the lone hit or maybe hit. The others: Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields, Kenny Pickett, Will Levis and Zach Wilson. Some still believe in one or two of these guys. Some.
But the list is filled with backups. And a whole lot of draft busts. Table sorted by passing yards per game.
| QBS AVERAGING UNDER 180 PASSING YARDS (YR 1-2), 2000- | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | GS | Yds | TD | Int | Pass/G |
| 2003 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 16 | 2880 | 17 | 22 | 180.0 |
| 2023 | Bryce Young, Car. | 16 | 2877 | 11 | 10 | 179.8 |
| 2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 13 | 2334 | 9 | 11 | 179.5 |
| 2018 | Josh Rosen, Ari. | 13 | 2278 | 11 | 14 | 175.2 |
| 2024 | Will Levis, Ten. | 12 | 2091 | 13 | 12 | 174.3 |
| 2000 | Shaun King, T.B. | 16 | 2769 | 18 | 13 | 173.1 |
| 2023 | Kenny Pickett, Pitt. | 12 | 2070 | 6 | 4 | 172.5 |
| 2007 | Vince Young, Ten. | 15 | 2546 | 9 | 17 | 169.7 |
| 2006 | Vince Young, Ten. | 13 | 2199 | 12 | 13 | 169.2 |
| 2012 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 10 | 1662 | 9 | 6 | 166.2 |
| 2024 | Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 11 | 1814 | 8 | 12 | 164.9 |
| 2025 | J.J. McCarthy, Min. | 10 | 1632 | 11 | 12 | 163.2 |
| 2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 15 | 2444 | 12 | 20 | 162.9 |
| 2002 | David Carr, Hou. | 16 | 2592 | 9 | 15 | 162.0 |
| 2008 | JaMarcus Russell, Oak. | 15 | 2423 | 13 | 8 | 161.5 |
| 2004 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 16 | 2559 | 13 | 11 | 159.9 |
| 2007 | Tarvaris Jackson, Min. | 12 | 1911 | 9 | 12 | 159.3 |
| 2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 14 | 2214 | 12 | 11 | 158.1 |
| 2011 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 11 | 1729 | 12 | 6 | 157.2 |
| 2010 | Jimmy Clausen, Car. | 10 | 1558 | 3 | 9 | 155.8 |
| 2006 | Bruce Gradkowski, T.B. | 11 | 1661 | 9 | 9 | 151.0 |
| 2022 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 15 | 2242 | 17 | 11 | 149.5 |
| 2005 | Kyle Orton, Chi. | 15 | 1869 | 9 | 13 | 124.6 |
| 2000 | Akili Smith, Cin. | 11 | 1253 | 3 | 6 | 113.9 |
In general, inclusion on a table with Akili Smith and Kyle Boller isn't a good sign. I don't think the odds of McCarthy starting another game for the Vikings are good -- a Murray injury is probably the only way -- and I'm not sure he'll start anywhere else, either.
--Andy Richardson

