I think we’re going to get about twice as many touchdowns on kickoff returns this year. The league has approved a rules change, with touchbacks shifting from the 30- to the 35-yard line.
Back in 2023, touchbacks were being place at the 25. With the shift from to the 30 last year, there was an increase of 433 kickoffs. Plenty of teams (more than I was expecting) were content to let offenses start drives at the 30. There were still almost twice as many touchbacks (1,803) as kickoff returns (920).
With the shift to the 35-yard line, I don’t think there will be many teams handing out touchbacks. They’ll be landing those kickoffs near the goal line, hoping to pin offenses inside the 25.
I would think those touchback-return numbers will flip, with twice as many returns as touchbacks. At least.
If there are returns, of course, that means there should also be more touchdowns. There were 7 TDs in 920 returns last year, an average of one per every 131 returns. If that ratio holds and there are 2,000 kickoff returns, we should see about 15 touchdowns.
If we instead use the dad from the last 10 years (with different rules in some seasons) the rate would drop to a touchdown every 146 returns. That would put the projected total at 13.6 touchdowns.
| KICKOFF RETURNS, LAST 10 YEARS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Returns | TD | Pct |
| 2015 | 1,080 | 7 | .6% |
| 2016 | 1,035 | 7 | .7% |
| 2017 | 1,036 | 7 | .7% |
| 2018 | 970 | 5 | .5% |
| 2019 | 938 | 7 | .7% |
| 2020 | 992 | 7 | .7% |
| 2021 | 1,101 | 9 | .8% |
| 2022 | 1,011 | 6 | .6% |
| 2023 | 587 | 4 | .7% |
| 2024 | 920 | 7 | .8% |
| 2025 | ? | ? | ? |
With this rules change, I expect we’ll see a few teams looking more closely at picking up a kick returner in the draft. It will be a more important role.
Only 33 players last year had at least 10 returns. KaVontae Turpin (pictured) is generally considered the best. He had a league-high 904 yards on kickoff returns last year, with the league’s 2nd-highest average. (Turpin also scored on a punt return last year.)
| KICKOFF RETURNERS WITH 10 RETURNS IN 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | No | Yds | Avg | TD |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette, NYG | 11 | 381 | 34.6 | 1 |
| KaVontae Turpin, Dall. | 27 | 904 | 33.5 | 1 |
| DeAndre Carter, Chi. | 15 | 479 | 31.9 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 17 | 533 | 31.4 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler, Was. | 19 | 594 | 31.3 | 0 |
| Malik Washington, Mia. | 14 | 430 | 30.7 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas, Ari. | 15 | 459 | 30.6 | 1 |
| Luke McCaffrey, Was. | 10 | 299 | 29.9 | 0 |
| Keisean Nixon, G.B. | 18 | 528 | 29.3 | 0 |
| Jermaine Burton, Cin. | 13 | 378 | 29.1 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson, NYJ | 17 | 489 | 28.8 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr., Sea.-LAC | 16 | 459 | 28.7 | 1 |
| Jordan Whittington, LAR | 16 | 453 | 28.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Codrington, Buff. | 11 | 306 | 27.8 | 0 |
| Dee Williams, NYG-Sea, | 10 | 277 | 27.7 | 0 |
| Derius Davis, LAC | 19 | 524 | 27.6 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker, T.B. | 15 | 410 | 27.3 | 0 |
| Avery Williams, Atl. | 15 | 408 | 27.2 | 0 |
| Jaelon Darden, Cle.-Sea. | 11 | 296 | 26.9 | 0 |
| Nikko Remigio, K.C. | 11 | 295 | 26.8 | 0 |
| Eric Gray, NYG | 21 | 554 | 26.4 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams, N.O. | 11 | 288 | 26.2 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut, Ten. | 13 | 337 | 25.9 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford, Cle. | 15 | 388 | 25.9 | 0 |
| Jha'Quan Jackson, Ten. | 16 | 412 | 25.8 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud, Atl. | 14 | 361 | 25.8 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear, Car. | 31 | 791 | 25.5 | 0 |
| Kenneth Gainwell, Phil. | 18 | 456 | 25.3 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay, Jac. | 14 | 351 | 25.1 | 0 |
| Jamycal Hasty, N.E. | 10 | 238 | 23.8 | 0 |
| Chris Collier, L.V.-Bal. | 12 | 286 | 23.8 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong, Cle. | 11 | 255 | 23.2 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson, Pitt. | 11 | 240 | 21.8 | 0 |
—Ian Allan