New Jets GM Darren Mougey was talking to the media yesterday. He confirmed that Justin Fields would be the starting quarterback, as his contract makes clear, but added that veteran Tyrod Taylor is "right on his heels."
That's just one of those things you say, of course -- Taylor turns 36 this summer and the Jets are his seventh team -- but if Fields struggles, Taylor will likely replace him eventually. And although I've said some positive things about Fields' work in Pittsburgh last year, the larger body of work indicates that Fields will indeed struggle.
He started six games for the Steelers last year, going 4-2 and establishing career-best numbers in terms of completion percentage (65.8), passer rating (93.3) and both sack and interception percentages (9.0 and 0.6, respectively). But Mike Tomlin pulled the plug anyway, and the Steelers made little effort to bring Fields back for 2025. While 2024 showed some improvement, it's hard to look at Fields' career and think things will go well in New York.
Over the four seasons that Fields has been in the league, he's one of 21 quarterbacks to start at least 40 games. Looking at the key quarterback metrics for those players, there's exactly one where he grades out favorably (spoiler, it's rushing yards per game). In every other respect, he's last among those 21 quarterbacks.
Completion percentage, passing yards per game, passer rating, sack percentage, and interception percentage (which I cropped out of the table) -- Fields ranks 21st of those 21 quarterbacks.
Table, compiled using search tools at pro-football-reference.com, is sorted by passer rating, though Fields would be at the bottom in everything but rushing yards per game.
| QUARTERBACKS WITH 40-PLUS STARTS, 2021-2024 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GS | Cmp% | Rk | Pass/G | Rk | Rate | Rk | Sk% | Rk | Run/G | Rk |
| Joe Burrow | 59 | 69.2 | 1 | 276.5 | 1 | 103.3 | 1 | 7.1 | 15 | 11.3 | 14 |
| Lamar Jackson | 57 | 65.4 | 13 | 227.6 | 16 | 101.6 | 2 | 7.0 | 14 | 57.3 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 65 | 67.9 | 4 | 259.8 | 6 | 100.2 | 3 | 5.1 | 4 | 3.6 | 20 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 53 | 68.7 | 2 | 253.6 | 8 | 99.7 | 4 | 5.0 | 3 | 5.9 | 16 |
| Dak Prescott | 53 | 67.8 | 6 | 260.4 | 5 | 99.2 | 5 | 5.6 | 7 | 11.8 | 13 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 66 | 67.0 | 7 | 275.8 | 2 | 97.6 | 6 | 4.5 | 2 | 21.7 | 7 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 51 | 65.4 | 14 | 229.5 | 14 | 97.5 | 7 | 5.9 | 12 | 5.9 | 17 |
| Kirk Cousins | 55 | 66.8 | 8 | 265.6 | 3 | 96.4 | 8 | 5.7 | 10 | 4.3 | 19 |
| Justin Herbert | 64 | 66.5 | 9 | 261.8 | 4 | 96.3 | 9 | 5.6 | 8 | 15.4 | 11 |
| Geno Smith | 52 | 68.5 | 3 | 243.9 | 10 | 95.9 | 10 | 7.4 | 17 | 15.8 | 10 |
| Matthew Stafford | 57 | 65.7 | 12 | 257.9 | 7 | 95.2 | 12 | 5.7 | 9 | 2.8 | 21 |
| Josh Allen | 67 | 64.2 | 18 | 249.7 | 9 | 95.2 | 11 | 4.1 | 1 | 38.5 | 4 |
| Jalen Hurts | 62 | 65.4 | 15 | 219.5 | 18 | 94.8 | 13 | 7.2 | 16 | 44.8 | 3 |
| Russell Wilson | 55 | 63.7 | 19 | 221.6 | 17 | 94.8 | 14 | 9.1 | 20 | 17.4 | 9 |
| Derek Carr | 59 | 66.3 | 10 | 243.2 | 11 | 94.0 | 15 | 5.1 | 5 | 5.4 | 18 |
| Kyler Murray | 50 | 67.9 | 5 | 236.1 | 12 | 93.4 | 16 | 5.8 | 11 | 33.1 | 6 |
| Baker Mayfield | 58 | 64.8 | 17 | 228.6 | 15 | 93.0 | 17 | 7.8 | 18 | 12.7 | 12 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 60 | 63.3 | 20 | 230.3 | 13 | 85.0 | 18 | 5.2 | 6 | 18.1 | 8 |
| Mac Jones | 49 | 65.9 | 11 | 203.7 | 19 | 84.9 | 19 | 5.9 | 13 | 8.1 | 15 |
| Daniel Jones | 43 | 65.4 | 16 | 200.3 | 20 | 84.5 | 20 | 8.6 | 19 | 34.3 | 5 |
| Justin Fields | 44 | 61.1 | 21 | 155.6 | 21 | 83.9 | 21 | 11.9 | 21 | 50.2 | 2 |
We're playing fantasy football here, so Fields still merits consideration in fantasy leagues. If we look at just the first six games from last season, when Fields was starting for Pittsburgh, he comes in 6th in fantasy points among quarterbacks. So he might be worth drafting as a second quarterback if he falls far enough, and used while in the lineup if your regular starter has a poor matchup.
But can the Jets really keep him in the lineup if the passing game isn't clicking and Fields is absorbing sacks at a rate twice as often as a lot of the league's other quarterbacks? It's reasonable to think a pick used on Fields might pay off early, but won't be useful by midseason, when the Jets have switched to Taylor (or perhaps a rookie, if they select one, which Fields' career indicates they really should).
--Andy Richardson