Tee Higgins is the marquee wide receiver name, but reports have him possibly staying in Cincinnati. Many other big-name veterans expected to be available (Kupp, Davante, Diggs) have played their best football and/or are coming off injury. So what about Christian Kirk?
Kirk is also coming off injury, but it's a broken collarbone -- something that will heal completely and not impact his free agent market. I broke my collarbone three times as a kid and it never affected my NFL career in the slightest, so I know whereof I speak. He's 28, so if not in his prime he's pretty close to it.
He's not a free agent, but a report this week said there's a 75 percent chance the team cuts him. Such speculation is fairly empty (the team itself isn't concocting numbers like that) but he's got a big contract and Jacksonville has lots of needs and other viable wideouts, so it's reasonable to think he'll be available. What are teams getting with him?
Kirk put up modest numbers at the start of his career in Jacksonville, but in his fourth year (contract season) and the past three years with Jacksonville, he's been reasonably production. In the past four years he's averaged 4.5 catches for 60 yards, with a touchdown about once every three games. That works out to 12.5 points (PPR) per week. Respectable, although close to the bottom third of the 47 wide receivers who have started at least 50 games the past four seasons (28 have been better, just 18 have been worse).
Looking at the table of those 47 wideouts, about half of the guys who have finished below him over the past four seasons will struggle to find work in 2025. Lockett, Cooks, Lazard, Boyd, Raymond, Valdes-Scantling, Jefferson, Agholor. None of those guys will have hot free agent markets, and none will necessarily be starting this season. Question is how much closer Kirk will be viewed to those players than the more desirable guys above him.
| WRS PER GAME, 2021-2024 (MINIMUM 50 STARTS) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | No | Yds | TD | PPR |
| Justin Jefferson, Min. | 61 | 6.7 | 98.9 | .56 | 20.0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 61 | 6.4 | 88.5 | .75 | 19.9 |
| Cooper Kupp, LAR | 50 | 6.9 | 84.1 | .69 | 19.6 |
| Tyreek Hill, Mia. | 66 | 6.5 | 86.4 | .55 | 18.7 |
| CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 65 | 6.5 | 83.1 | .55 | 18.6 |
| Davante Adams, 2tms | 64 | 6.4 | 82.4 | .65 | 18.5 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 66 | 6.5 | 73.5 | .53 | 17.3 |
| Stefon Diggs, Hou. | 58 | 6.3 | 74.7 | .57 | 17.2 |
| A.J. Brown, Phil. | 60 | 5.4 | 81.7 | .50 | 16.6 |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 62 | 4.9 | 71.3 | .71 | 16.4 |
| Keenan Allen, Chi. | 54 | 6.5 | 71.8 | .44 | 16.4 |
| Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 58 | 4.2 | 61.7 | .60 | 15.6 |
| Chris Godwin, T.B. | 53 | 6.3 | 70.3 | .33 | 15.5 |
| Tee Higgins, Cin. | 53 | 5.0 | 69.6 | .52 | 15.2 |
| DJ Moore, Chi. | 68 | 5.1 | 64.3 | .39 | 14.2 |
| DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 63 | 4.9 | 63.7 | .43 | 13.9 |
| Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 62 | 5.0 | 66.6 | .35 | 13.8 |
| DK Metcalf, Sea. | 65 | 4.6 | 63.4 | .48 | 13.8 |
| Terry McLaurin, Was. | 68 | 4.6 | 63.9 | .41 | 13.6 |
| Michael Pittman, Ind. | 65 | 5.6 | 61.0 | .28 | 13.5 |
| Adam Thielen, Car. | 57 | 5.1 | 53.9 | .45 | 13.2 |
| Amari Cooper, 2tms | 61 | 4.3 | 62.7 | .43 | 13.2 |
| Diontae Johnson, Car. | 53 | 5.2 | 58.8 | .32 | 13.1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins, 2tms | 52 | 4.6 | 56.8 | .44 | 13.0 |
| Jakobi Meyers, L.V. | 62 | 5.0 | 56.5 | .38 | 12.9 |
| Nico Collins, Hou. | 51 | 4.3 | 63.3 | .36 | 12.8 |
| Drake London, Atl. | 50 | 4.8 | 60.8 | .31 | 12.8 |
| Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 56 | 4.1 | 63.1 | .36 | 12.7 |
| Christian Kirk, Jac. | 54 | 4.5 | 60.3 | .31 | 12.5 |
| Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 66 | 4.3 | 56.1 | .37 | 12.2 |
| Jerry Jeudy, Cle. | 58 | 4.3 | 59.1 | .22 | 11.6 |
| Courtland Sutton, Den. | 65 | 4.0 | 53.2 | .34 | 11.4 |
| Brandin Cooks, Dall. | 55 | 4.1 | 48.2 | .37 | 11.3 |
| Darnell Mooney, Atl. | 60 | 3.6 | 49.2 | .22 | 9.9 |
| Allen Lazard, NYJ | 54 | 3.0 | 39.7 | .39 | 9.3 |
| Gabe Davis, Jac. | 58 | 2.6 | 40.9 | .39 | 9.0 |
| Tyler Boyd, Ten. | 65 | 3.6 | 40.7 | .19 | 8.8 |
| K.J. Osborn, 2TMs | 50 | 3.2 | 36.9 | .30 | 8.7 |
| Elijah Moore, Cle. | 57 | 3.5 | 36.8 | .16 | 8.2 |
| Rashod Bateman, Balt. | 51 | 2.7 | 37.7 | .25 | 8.0 |
| Darius Slayton, NYG | 59 | 2.7 | 40.8 | .19 | 7.9 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Ten. | 58 | 2.1 | 29.7 | .35 | 7.1 |
| Demarcus Robinson, LAR | 53 | 2.3 | 28.8 | .28 | 7.0 |
| Kalif Raymond, Det. | 53 | 2.4 | 31.1 | .15 | 6.7 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling, N.O. | 52 | 2.0 | 34.9 | .19 | 6.7 |
| Van Jefferson, Pitt. | 57 | 1.9 | 27.2 | .19 | 5.8 |
| Nelson Agholor, Balt. | 57 | 2.0 | 25.4 | .19 | 5.7 |
Injuries have been an issue for Kirk. He missed 9 games last year and 5 the previous season (core muscle surgery). But he'd played in every game the previous two seasons, and a broken collarbone can reasonably be described as flukey. I don't think he seems like an injury risk.
There a couple of intriguing landing spots. How about with the Rams, as a replacement for Kupp, after they work out this overblown contract dispute with Matthew Stafford (Rams don't want to replace him and Stafford doesn't want to go anywhere else, that's my belief and I'm sticking to it). Or perhaps a team where he'd be the No. 1, like New England, or a solid No. 2 with a top young quarterback, say Washington.
In general, I'm interested. Should have a market with a team in need of a starting wideout. He's not Tee Higgins, but might be a little more likely to hit next year than some of the older or lesser available wideouts, depending on that landing spot.
--Andy Richardson