I see that Dave Canales at the league meeting in Palm Beach was talking up the potential of Xavier Legette. The hope, Canales said, is that Legette will blossom into a No. 1 kind of guy.
"I think we got that guy. I think it's Xavier," Canales said on Tuesday. "And I think it's up to the coaches to just continue to develop him and let him grow at his pace. So, for me, the goal for Xavier Legette is let's just take that next step. This is going to be his first offseason with us, from phase one all the way through, and I just love to see where that goes.
"You got a guy who's 6-2 1/2, 225 pounds, and runs 4.3. And he's a playmaker, and it's on film, and so it's like, let's start there. Let's just take the next step with him."
None of this, of course, is particularly surprising. What else is he supposed to say? (“Well, it was a disappointing first season, but we can’t have that pick back. Let’s hope he can somehow turn it around.”)
But in this case, I do think there’s some chance for Legette to grow into something this year, perhaps finishing with top-30 receiving numbers. I would be more inclined to gamble on him than to hope that aging Adam Thielen can keep things going.
While Legette had a modest first season, he wasn’t a bust. He showed some aptitude inside the 10-yard line, catching 5 of the 7 passes thrown his way, including 4 TDs. Only two rookie receivers (Brian Thomas, Ladd McConkey) caught more passes in that part of the field. Legette averaged 3.6 catches for 36 yards, so there’s some base of production to work from.
Legette had that awful drop at Philly (pictured), probably costing them that game. No getting around that. He dropped 6 other passes as well, finishing with one of the bottom-5 drop rates at his position. But drops weren’t an issue for him at South Carolina.
Today, I’m thinking I’m a pro-Legette guy. He’s the first Carolina receiver I would select. I think there’s some chance he becomes a usable option this season.
And with that in mind, let’s look at some other Xavier-like receivers from the last 15 years. All of these guys were picked in the first or second round (Legette was the last pick of the first round), and they all averaged similar stats to Legette last year. (For this, I took the total PPR points and divided by games – all of these guys finished within 1 point per week of Legette.)
Note that three other rookies from last year come in as similar to Legette – Keon Coleman, Ricky Pearsall and Rome Odunze – so this stat study applies to them as well. None of these receivers shined in their first season, but none of them stunk either – they were guys who were kind of treading water, with the trajectory of their careers still in question.
The final column in this chart shows where the receiver ranked among all players at his position that year (rookies or otherwise) using PPR scoring.
| ROOKIE RECEIVERS TREADING WATER IN FIRST SEASON | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2012 | Alshon Jeffery, Chi. | 10 | 24 | 367 | 3 | 78.7 | 83 |
| 2012 | Michael Floyd, Ari. | 16 | 45 | 562 | 2 | 113.2 | 65 |
| 2013 | Robert Woods, Buff. | 14 | 40 | 587 | 3 | 120.3 | 59 |
| 2015 | Devin Funchess, Car. | 16 | 31 | 473 | 5 | 108.3 | 65 |
| 2015 | Dorial Green-Beckham, Ten. | 16 | 32 | 549 | 4 | 112.9 | 59 |
| 2016 | Tyler Boyd, Cin. | 16 | 54 | 603 | 1 | 126.1 | 63 |
| 2018 | Anthony Miller, Chi. | 15 | 33 | 423 | 7 | 120.3 | 60 |
| 2018 | Courtland Sutton, Den. | 16 | 42 | 704 | 4 | 136.3 | 50 |
| 2018 | Dante Pettis, S.F. | 12 | 27 | 467 | 5 | 103.5 | 71 |
| 2019 | Mecole Hardman, K.C. | 16 | 26 | 538 | 7 | 123.5 | 59 |
| 2020 | Henry Ruggs, L.V. | 13 | 26 | 452 | 2 | 88.1 | 89 |
| 2020 | Jalen Reagor, Phil. | 11 | 31 | 396 | 2 | 87.2 | 91 |
| 2020 | KJ Hamler, Den. | 13 | 30 | 381 | 3 | 90.1 | 88 |
| 2020 | Michael Pittman, Ind. | 13 | 40 | 503 | 1 | 98.9 | 80 |
| 2021 | Kadarius Toney, NYG | 10 | 39 | 420 | 0 | 82.6 | 89 |
| 2021 | Rashod Bateman, Balt. | 12 | 46 | 515 | 1 | 103.5 | 70 |
| 2021 | Rondale Moore, Ari. | 14 | 54 | 435 | 1 | 111.1 | 65 |
| 2022 | Alec Pierce, Ind. | 16 | 41 | 593 | 2 | 112.3 | 64 |
| 2022 | Treylon Burks, Ten. | 11 | 33 | 444 | 2 | 94.1 | 78 |
| 2022 | Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG | 6 | 23 | 227 | 1 | 51.6 | 116 |
| 2023 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea. | 17 | 63 | 628 | 4 | 149.8 | 48 |
| 2024 | • Keon Coleman, Buff. | 13 | 29 | 556 | 4 | 111.5 | 71 |
| 2024 | • Ricky Pearsall, S.F. | 11 | 31 | 400 | 3 | 93.5 | 82 |
| 2024 | • Rome Odunze, Chi. | 17 | 54 | 734 | 3 | 146.9 | 49 |
| 2024 | • Xavier Legette, Car. | 16 | 49 | 497 | 4 | 125.1 | 61 |
If we take those same players and look at what they did in their next season, it provides a general idea of how likely it is for these kind of guys to ascend into a big-time role in their second season.
I see four moving up into the top 20, including Jaxon Smith-Njigba last year. Michael Pittman and Courtland Sutton previously, and was back in 2013, Alshon Jeffery (who preceded Legette at South Carolina). That’s what we’re all hoping for when we pick an Odunze or a Legette.
But only two other of these second-year receivers finished with even top-50 numbers (Michael Floyd, Robert Woods). That leaves us with statistical misses on 15 of the 21.
Such numbers suggest that when you take a receiver like Legette (or Coleman, Pearsall or Odunze) you’re far more likely to miss rather than hit. When picking these guys, it should probably be with some kind of contingency plan for who’ll you’ll be using if they don’t pan out.
Those are just numbers, of course. I’m not ruling any of these guys out for my own teams. My leaning is that Legette will be the top receiver in Carolina. And with Brandon Aiyuk coming off a torn ACL, I think there’s a path for Pearsall to maybe be the top pass catcher in San Francisco (I don’t see much difference between him and Jauan Jennings).
| THOSE RECEIVERS IN SECOND SEASONS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk | Prev |
| 2013 | Alshon Jeffery, Chi. | 16 | 89 | 1421 | 7 | 285.6 | 8 | 83 |
| 2013 | • Michael Floyd, Ari. | 16 | 65 | 1041 | 5 | 199.1 | 27 | 65 |
| 2014 | • Robert Woods, Buff. | 16 | 65 | 699 | 5 | 166.9 | 45 | 59 |
| 2016 | Dorial Green-Beckham, Phil. | 15 | 36 | 392 | 2 | 87.2 | 88 | 59 |
| 2016 | Devin Funchess, Car. | 15 | 23 | 371 | 4 | 86.1 | 89 | 65 |
| 2017 | Tyler Boyd, Cin. | 10 | 22 | 225 | 2 | 56.5 | 104 | 63 |
| 2019 | Courtland Sutton, Den. | 16 | 72 | 1112 | 6 | 222.8 | 19 | 50 |
| 2019 | Anthony Miller, Chi. | 16 | 52 | 656 | 2 | 129.5 | 56 | 60 |
| 2019 | Dante Pettis, S.F. | 11 | 11 | 109 | 2 | 34.7 | 133 | 71 |
| 2020 | Mecole Hardman, K.C. | 16 | 41 | 560 | 5 | 132.1 | 60 | 59 |
| 2021 | Michael Pittman, Ind. | 17 | 88 | 1082 | 6 | 238.6 | 18 | 80 |
| 2021 | Henry Ruggs, L.V. | 7 | 24 | 469 | 2 | 84.5 | 86 | 89 |
| 2021 | Jalen Reagor, Phil. | 17 | 33 | 299 | 2 | 78.1 | 96 | 91 |
| 2021 | KJ Hamler, Den. | 3 | 5 | 74 | 0 | 12.4 | 174 | 88 |
| 2022 | Rondale Moore, Ari. | 8 | 41 | 414 | 1 | 87.9 | 83 | 65 |
| 2022 | Kadarius Toney, 2TM | 9 | 16 | 171 | 3 | 59.3 | 106 | 89 |
| 2022 | Rashod Bateman, Balt. | 6 | 15 | 285 | 2 | 55.5 | 111 | 70 |
| 2023 | Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG | 15 | 60 | 525 | 2 | 133.2 | 54 | 116 |
| 2023 | Alec Pierce, Ind. | 17 | 32 | 514 | 2 | 95.4 | 73 | 64 |
| 2023 | Treylon Burks, Ten. | 11 | 16 | 221 | 0 | 39.9 | 124 | 78 |
| 2024 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea. | 17 | 100 | 1130 | 6 | 253.4 | 10 | 48 |
—Ian Allan