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April 16, 2025

Is Pete Carroll looking for his next Marshawn Lynch?

Ashton Jeanty a popular mock choice for Raiders

I’m buying into the theory that the Raiders will be taking Ashton Jeanty with the 6th pick of the draft. They have a need at the position, and Pete Carroll has a history of placing a higher value on running backs.

Seattle, of course, swung the key trade (with Buffalo) for Marshawn Lynch. He was a pivotal figure in Carroll’s years with the Seahawks. And they also tossed value picks at the position.

Looking for another Lynch, the Seahawks picked Rashaad Penny in the first round in 2018. They selected Christine Michael late in the first round in 2013. And they fired off second-round picks on running backs in Carroll’s last two years there – Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. That’s four first- or second-round picks on running backs; only one other team in those years used as many premium picks on the position.

During Carroll’s years in Seattle, he also used three picks in the third and fourth rounds on running backs – Robert Turbin, C.J. Prosise (who had that one huge Sunday night game at New England) and DeeJay Dallas.

PETE CARROLL AND RUNNING BACKS
YearRdPkPlayerSchool
20124106Robert TurbinUtah State
2013262• Christine MichaelTexas A&M
20136194Spencer WareLouisiana State
20147227Kiero SmallArkansas
2016390C.J. ProsiseNotre Dame
20165171Alex CollinsArkansas
20167247Zac BrooksClemson
20177249Chris CarsonOklahoma State
2018127•• Rashaad PennySan Diego State
20196204Travis HomerMiami
20204144DeeJay DallasMiami
2022241• Kenneth WalkerMichigan State
2023252• Zach CharbonnetUCLA
20237237Kenny McIntoshGeorgia

The only question with the Raiders, who have a glaring hole at the position, is whether it makes more sense to wait, picking up a back in the second or third round. Maybe Chip Kelly, who’ll be their offensive coordinator, feels like there’s a more unheralded guy who’ll fit nicely into his scheme. Kelly last year coached the two 1,000-yard rushers at Ohio State. (Previously, at UCLA, by the way, Kelly coached Charbonnet.) It may be GM John Spytek rather than Carroll who makes the call.

But I think it will be Jeanty. And if it plays out that way, it will create the dynamic of the best running back (if Jeanty, in fact, is better than Omarion Hampton) being selected by the team that last year ranked last in rushing. That was a different team, of course, with different players and a different scheme; but it will be viewed as less than ideal by some.

But I ran some numbers on this, and a bunch of running backs have been able to step into a seemingly lesser situations and produce. In the 32-team era, I see 10 backs that have been drafted by teams with bottom-10 running games and as rookies finished with top-10 numbers.

By “top 10” I’m using not rushing yards but total production, using PPR scoring. And to determine which teams had bottom-10 running games the previous year, I used not yards but standard scoring (6 points for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards). So it’s kind of a hodge-podge approach, mixing different scoring systems, but I think it adequately paints the picture.

In the chart below, you’re seeing the 34 running backs drafted by teams with bottom-10 run games who finished with top-30 PPR numbers in their initial season. The players at the bottom of the list (who didn’t finish with top-30 stats) are the remaining first-round picks who were drafted by teams with bottom-10 run games.

Four of the first five players on this list were drafted into seemingly dire situations (onto teams ranking 30th or lower).

RUNNING BACKS DRAFTED BY BOTTOM-10 RUNNING TEAMS
YearPlayerRdGRunRecTotTDPPRRk
2008Matt Forte, Chi.2161,2384771,71512306.52
2012Doug Martin, T.B.1161,4544721,92612313.62
2018Saquon Barkley, NYG1161,3077212,02815385.82
2021Najee Harris, Pitt.1171,2004671,66710300.73
2015David Johnson, Ari.3165814571,03813217.87
2020James Robinson, Jac.FA141,0703441,41410252.47
2012Alfred Morris, Was.6161,613771,69013258.07
2012Trent Richardson, Cle.1159503671,31712254.78
2013Eddie Lacy, G.B.2151,1782571,43511244.58
2017Leonard Fournette, Jac.1131,0403021,34210230.210
2003Domanick Williams, Hou.4141,0313511,3828233.214
2020Antonio Gibson, Was.3147952471,04211206.214
2024Bucky Irving, T.B.4171,1223921,5148246.415
2013LeVeon Bell, Pitt.2138603991,2598218.915
2019Miles Sanders, Phi.2168185091,3276220.715
2007Marshawn Lynch, Buff.1131,1151841,2997196.316
2020D'Andre Swift, Det.21352135787810193.816
2008Kevin Smith, Det.3169762861,2628213.217
2010Jahvid Best, Det.1165554871,0426198.220
2004Kevin Jones, Det.1151,1331801,3136195.321
2005Cadillac Williams, T.B.1141,178811,2596181.921
2019Josh Jacobs, Oak.1131,1501661,3167193.621
2013Zac Stacy, St.L.5149731411,1148185.421
2005Ronnie Brown, Mia.1159072321,1395175.923
2022Dameon Pierce, Hou.4139391651,1045170.425
2011Roy Helu, Was.4156403791,0193168.925
2023DeVon Achane, Mia.31180019799711192.725
2013Andre Ellington, Ari.6156523711,0234165.326
2014Andre Williams, NYG4167211308517145.127
2017Tarik Cohen, Chi.4163703537234154.428
2018Nyheim Hines, Ind.4163144257394160.928
2021Michael Carter, NYJ4146393259644156.429
2022Tyler Allgeier, Atl.5161,0351391,1744159.430
2015Jeremy Langford, Chi.4165372798167147.630
2002William Green, Cle.1168871131,0006152.033
2009Beanie Wells, Ari.1167931439367147.637
2015Melvin Gordon, S.D.1146411928330116.345
2011Mark Ingram, N.O.11047446520593.046
2010C.J. Spiller, Buff.114283157440280.055
2009Donald Brown, Ind.111281169450374.060
2018Rashaad Penny, Sea.11441975494270.468
2005Cedric Benson, Chi.192723275028.592
2021Travis Etienne, Jac.100000.0--

I have not considered too closely where Jeanty as a Raider would rank. Maybe he winds up in Chicago instead. But off the top of my head, I’m guessing he’ll be among the first 10 running backs on my board.

—Ian Allan

Ashton Jeanty
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