I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of patience with Anthony Richardson this season. Either he’s going to get better, or the Colts pretty quickly will be mulling whether to give Daniel Jones a shot.
Not that Jones is shaping up to be this year’s Sam Darnold. I just think Colts felt let down by what they got out of Richardson last year. They’re tired of waiting for him.
GM Chris Ballard says Richardson and Jones will be competing for the starting job, and that he wouldn’t be surprised if they both wind up starting games.
"You've got to let things play out the way they should and compete and who gives the team the best chance to win,” he says. “Look, if I'm a betting man, at some point, both of them will help us."
If the Colts have already quietly concluded that Richardson isn’t going to develop quickly enough, I suppose that would make them a sleeper team to draft Shedeur Sanders or Jaxson Dart in the middle of the first round. (If they like either of them.)
However it plays out, we won’t be seeing a full season of what Richardson put on tape last year, when he completed only 48 percent of his passes.
The NFL publishes some specialty stats using the player tracking chips that are in the shoulder pads nowadays. The includes “expected completion percentage”. That is, based on how open receivers are, there’s a predicted likelihood of each pass being completed. Tabulated, this data gives an indication of who’s the best at making the throws with a higher degree of difficulty – and who’s simply missing open receivers.
According to this league-supplied data, Richardson should have completed 59 percent last year. He should have completed 11 more percentage than he actually did. That’s the worst of any quarterback in the last five years.
Below are quarterbacks from the last five years who finished with completion percentages at least 3 lower than expected. Two other quarterbacks from last season make the list – Aaron Rodgers and Trevor Lawrence.
| LEAST ACCURATE PASSERS (last 5 years) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Player | Comp% | Expected | Diff |
| 2024 | Ind. | Anthony Richardson | 47.7 | 59.0 | -11.3 |
| 2021 | NYJ | Zach Wilson | 55.6 | 65.9 | -10.3 |
| 2022 | 2 tms | Baker Mayfield | 60.0 | 66.9 | -6.9 |
| 2022 | NYJ | Zach Wilson | 54.5 | 60.7 | -6.2 |
| 2021 | Jac. | Trevor Lawrence | 59.6 | 65.0 | -5.4 |
| 2024 | NYJ | • Aaron Rodgers | 63.0 | 68.2 | -5.2 |
| 2022 | Chi. | Justin Fields | 60.4 | 65.5 | -5.1 |
| 2021 | Car. | Sam Darnold | 59.9 | 64.9 | -5.0 |
| 2020 | Phil. | Carson Wentz | 57.4 | 61.5 | -4.1 |
| 2022 | Den. | Russell Wilson | 60.5 | 64.4 | -3.9 |
| 2020 | Den. | Drew Lock | 57.3 | 61.2 | -3.9 |
| 2024 | Jac. | • Trevor Lawrence | 60.6 | 64.5 | -3.9 |
| 2021 | Pitt. | Ben Roethlisberger | 64.5 | 68.1 | -3.6 |
| 2021 | Cle. | Baker Mayfield | 60.5 | 64.0 | -3.5 |
| 2023 | Ten. | Will Levis | 58.4 | 61.6 | -3.2 |
| 2022 | Hou. | Davis Mills | 61.0 | 64.2 | -3.2 |
| 2020 | NYJ | Sam Darnold | 59.6 | 62.8 | -3.2 |
| 2020 | S.F. | Nick Mullens | 64.7 | 67.8 | -3.1 |
| 2021 | Chi. | Justin Fields | 58.9 | 61.9 | -3.0 |
While I’ve got the numbers in front of me, I may as well also give you the guys who outperformed expectations. These are the regular starters from the last five years who finished at least 3 percentage points higher than expected in completion percentage.
The 2024 season is well represented, with Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow both in the top 3. (Burrow is both 2nd and 3rd – with his willingness to throw to tightly covered receivers.) But also four other 2024 quarterbacks, including Derek Carr, who tends to have shade thrown his way but comes through with good numbers using this metric.
| MOST ACCURATE PASSERS (last 5 years) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Player | Comp% | Expected | Diff |
| 2024 | Phil. | • Jalen Hurts | 68.7 | 62.1 | 6.6 |
| 2021 | Cin. | Joe Burrow | 70.4 | 64.4 | 6.0 |
| 2024 | Cin. | • Joe Burrow | 70.6 | 65.6 | 5.0 |
| 2020 | Hou. | Deshaun Watson | 70.2 | 65.4 | 4.8 |
| 2023 | Dall. | Dak Prescott | 69.5 | 64.8 | 4.7 |
| 2020 | Buff. | Josh Allen | 69.2 | 64.6 | 4.6 |
| 2023 | Min. | Kirk Cousins | 69.5 | 64.9 | 4.6 |
| 2022 | Sea. | Geno Smith | 69.8 | 65.3 | 4.5 |
| 2024 | Det. | • Jared Goff | 72.4 | 68.0 | 4.4 |
| 2020 | G.B. | Aaron Rodgers | 70.7 | 66.4 | 4.3 |
| 2020 | Min. | Kirk Cousins | 67.6 | 63.3 | 4.3 |
| 2023 | Phil. | Jalen Hurts | 65.4 | 61.3 | 4.1 |
| 2023 | N.O. | Derek Carr | 68.4 | 64.4 | 4.0 |
| 2020 | Sea. | Russell Wilson | 68.8 | 64.8 | 4.0 |
| 2021 | Ari. | Kyler Murray | 69.2 | 65.3 | 3.9 |
| 2020 | Cin. | Joe Burrow | 65.3 | 61.7 | 3.6 |
| 2021 | G.B. | Aaron Rodgers | 68.9 | 65.6 | 3.3 |
| 2024 | N.O. | • Derek Carr | 67.7 | 64.4 | 3.3 |
| 2024 | Min. | • Sam Darnold | 66.2 | 63.0 | 3.2 |
| 2024 | Sea. | • Geno Smith | 70.4 | 67.2 | 3.2 |
| 2020 | Jac. | Gardner Minshew | 66.1 | 63.1 | 3.0 |
—Ian Allan