I will be interested to see how the running back room is sorted out in Jacksonville. With Liam Coen taking over there, I expect the rushing numbers will be vastly improved.
Coen, as a reminder, did phenomenal things in Tampa Bay. The Bucs had ranked last in rushing two years in a row, but he moved them up to 4th in his first season as a coordinator.
The Jaguars have two notable holdover backs, Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby. I’m expecting they’ll also be adding somebody else who potentially could take on a significant role. (I don’t think they have quite enough with Etienne and Bigsby.)
The Jaguars were willing to exercise the fifth-year option on Etienne, which is more than can be said for the other running back picked in the first round in 2021 (Najee Harris). But Etienne has had more downs than ups thus far. He averaged only 3.7 yards per attempt last year.
Bigsby doesn’t have as much speed or elusiveness, and is a liability in the passing game, but Bigsby is a more physical runner.
With some of those “next gen” stats in front of me, I see that Etienne broke tackles only 2 percent of his carries last year. That was the worst rate in the league (among the 45 running backs with at least 100 carries). Bigsby broke tackles over 4 times as often, averaging almost a yard more per carry.
In another tackle-breaking metric, “yards after connect” Bigsby averaged a league-best 2.8 yards per attempt. That put him just ahead of Derrick Henry., and a full yard ahead of Etienne (who was in the bottom-10 in that metric).
With Etienne being dramatically better in the passing game, I would select him today before Bigsby in a PPR draft, but I’m thinking Bigsby (pictured) probably will finish with better rushing numbers. (And we’re working in pencil here, as we wait to see who else winds up in this backfield.)
In the chart below, you’re seeing three traditional counting stats – attempts, yards and yards-per-carry. The final two columns show average yards after contact (which is how I have them sorted), and percentage of attempts that included a broken tackle.
| RUNNING BACKS / YARDS AFTER CONTACT | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | YAC | BT% |
| Tank Bigsby, Jac. | 168 | 766 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 8.3% |
| Derrick Henry, Balt. | 325 | 1921 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 12.9% |
| Antonio Gibson, N.E. | 120 | 538 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 10.0% |
| Bucky Irving, T.B. | 207 | 1122 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 5.8% |
| Rachaad White, T.B. | 144 | 613 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 6.3% |
| Tyler Allgeier, Atl. | 137 | 644 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 5.1% |
| J.K. Dobbins, LAC | 195 | 905 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 12.3% |
| Josh Jacobs, G.B. | 301 | 1329 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 11.6% |
| James Conner, Ari. | 236 | 1094 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 10.2% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 250 | 1412 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 8.4% |
| Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 304 | 1456 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 7.6% |
| Gus Edwards, LAC | 101 | 365 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 8.9% |
| Emanuel Wilson, G.B. | 103 | 502 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 8.7% |
| James Cook, Buff. | 207 | 1009 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 6.8% |
| David Montgomery, Det. | 185 | 775 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 10.3% |
| Jordan Mason, S.F. | 153 | 789 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 8.5% |
| Brian Robinson, Was. | 187 | 799 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 5.3% |
| Zach Charbonnet, Sea. | 135 | 569 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 8.9% |
| Rico Dowdle, Dall. | 235 | 1079 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 4.7% |
| Chuba Hubbard, Car. | 250 | 1195 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 5.6% |
| Tony Pollard, Ten. | 260 | 1079 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 8.5% |
| Breece Hall, NYJ | 209 | 876 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 3.3% |
| Jerome Ford, Cle. | 104 | 565 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 4.8% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E. | 207 | 801 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 6.8% |
| De'Von Achane, Mia. | 203 | 907 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 3.4% |
| Najee Harris, Pitt. | 263 | 1043 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 8.4% |
| Aaron Jones, Min. | 255 | 1138 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 4.3% |
| Devin Singletary, NYG | 113 | 437 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 8.8% |
| Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 153 | 573 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 8.5% |
| Ray Davis, Buff. | 113 | 442 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 5.3% |
| Saquon Barkley, Phil. | 345 | 2005 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 5.5% |
| Jaylen Warren, Pitt. | 120 | 511 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 8.3% |
| Kyren Williams, LAR | 316 | 1299 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 8.5% |
| Joe Mixon, Hou. | 245 | 1016 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 7.8% |
| Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 303 | 1431 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 5.0% |
| Javonte Williams, Den. | 139 | 513 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 2.9% |
| Travis Etienne, Jac. | 150 | 558 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 2.0% |
| D'Andre Swift, Chi. | 253 | 959 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 2.8% |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 228 | 950 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 5.7% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin, Den. | 113 | 496 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 7.1% |
| Tyrone Tracy, NYG | 192 | 839 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 3.1% |
| Chase Brown, Cin. | 229 | 990 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 10.0% |
| Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 200 | 728 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 3.5% |
| Alexander Mattison, L.V. | 132 | 420 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 5.3% |
| Nick Chubb, Cle. | 102 | 332 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 3.9% |
—Ian Allan