Arizona's Tetairoa McMillan will be a first-round pick next week; maybe top 10. Not the first wide receiver selected (that will be WR/cornerback Travis Hunter), but definitely selected not long after.
McMillan put up big numbers last year, catching 84 passes for 1,310 yards and 8 TDs in 12 games. He got open deep to haul in long bombs, he outmuscled defenders for jump balls, and he took short throws the distance; he averaged over 16 yards per catch for his career. Looks great to me, and I'm hoping he'll be there at 1.04 of my rookie draft a couple of weeks from now.
As for whether he'll start putting up strong numbers right away, that looks like less of a sure thing. Looking at first-round wide receivers from the past decade, seems to be about 1-in-3 odds of a big rookie impact.
Since 2015, there have been 46 wideouts drafted in the first round. About 30 percent of them (14) finished with top-30 numbers in their rookie seasons in PPR leagues; regular weekly starters in most. Lowering the bar slightly, nearly half (22) at least ranked in the top 50 at their position. That's not quite enough to get them in starting lineups in 12-team, 3-WR start leagues, but close.
The other thing I noticed is that the difference between players selected very early in the round and late isn't as pronounced as you might think. Of those 14 rookies who finished in the top 30 over the last decade, eight were drafted with top-10 picks. But four were selected outside the top 20, and they include two of the four best rookies (Justin Jefferson in 2020, and Brian Thomas last year).
Table, showing first-round wideouts from the last decade, is sorted by rookie year fantasy finish in PPR leagues. Last year's guys are in bold.
| FIRST-ROUND WRS, 2015-2024 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Pk | Player | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 2024 | 23 | Brian Thomas, Jac. | 87 | 1282 | 10 | 4 |
| 2021 | 5 | Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 81 | 1455 | 13 | 5 |
| 2024 | 6 | Malik Nabers, NYG | 109 | 1204 | 7 | 6 |
| 2020 | 22 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 88 | 1400 | 7 | 6 |
| 2021 | 6 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 104 | 1015 | 7 | 12 |
| 2018 | 26 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 64 | 821 | 10 | 20 |
| 2022 | 10 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 83 | 1103 | 4 | 21 |
| 2015 | 4 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 72 | 1070 | 6 | 21 |
| 2020 | 17 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 74 | 935 | 7 | 22 |
| 2023 | 23 | Jordan Addison, Min. | 70 | 911 | 10 | 23 |
| 2022 | 11 | Chris Olave, N.O. | 72 | 1042 | 4 | 24 |
| 2022 | 8 | Drake London, Atl. | 72 | 866 | 4 | 28 |
| 2024 | 4 | Marvin Harrison, Ari. | 62 | 885 | 8 | 30 |
| 2021 | 10 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 64 | 916 | 5 | 30 |
| 2023 | 22 | Zay Flowers, Balt. | 77 | 858 | 6 | 31 |
| 2024 | 28 | Xavier Worthy, K.C. | 59 | 638 | 9 | 33 |
| 2020 | 25 | Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 60 | 748 | 7 | 35 |
| 2018 | 24 | DJ Moore, Car. | 55 | 788 | 2 | 36 |
| 2020 | 15 | Jerry Jeudy, Den. | 52 | 856 | 3 | 45 |
| 2019 | 25 | Marquise Brown, Balt. | 46 | 584 | 7 | 46 |
| 2023 | 20 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea. | 63 | 628 | 4 | 48 |
| 2024 | 9 | Rome Odunze, Chi. | 54 | 734 | 3 | 49 |
| 2022 | 16 | Jahan Dotson, Was. | 35 | 523 | 7 | 51 |
| 2024 | 32 | Xavier Legette, Car. | 49 | 497 | 4 | 61 |
| 2016 | 21 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 47 | 635 | 3 | 61 |
| 2021 | 27 | Rashod Bateman, Balt. | 46 | 515 | 1 | 70 |
| 2023 | 21 | Quentin Johnston, LAC | 38 | 431 | 2 | 74 |
| 2022 | 18 | Treylon Burks, Ten. | 33 | 444 | 2 | 78 |
| 2015 | 14 | DeVante Parker, Mia. | 26 | 494 | 3 | 78 |
| 2024 | 31 | Ricky Pearsall, S.F. | 31 | 400 | 3 | 82 |
| 2016 | 15 | Corey Coleman, Cle. | 33 | 413 | 3 | 83 |
| 2017 | 5 | Corey Davis, Ten. | 34 | 375 | 0 | 85 |
| 2021 | 20 | Kadarius Toney, NYG | 39 | 420 | 0 | 89 |
| 2020 | 12 | Henry Ruggs, L.V. | 26 | 452 | 2 | 89 |
| 2020 | 21 | Jalen Reagor, Phil. | 31 | 396 | 2 | 91 |
| 2015 | 20 | Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 23 | 283 | 1 | 101 |
| 2017 | 7 | Mike Williams, LAC | 21 | 298 | 1 | 107 |
| 2015 | 29 | Phillip Dorsett, Ind. | 18 | 225 | 1 | 110 |
| 2019 | 32 | N'Keal Harry, N.E. | 12 | 105 | 2 | 124 |
| 2022 | 12 | Jameson Williams, Det. | 1 | 41 | 1 | 158 |
| 2016 | 22 | Josh Doctson, Was. | 2 | 66 | 0 | 170 |
| 2016 | 23 | Laquon Treadwell, Min. | 1 | 15 | 0 | 188 |
| 2017 | 9 | John Ross, Cin. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 199 |
| 2015 | 26 | Breshad Perriman, Balt. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 |
| 2015 | 7 | Kevin White, Chi. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 |
A couple other notable takeaway from the table. One is that odds of a rookie impact seem to be improving, with these top prospects entering the league either more ready, or with teams more willing to put a lot on their plates right away. Two of the three best rookies were from last season, and six of the top 16 were from 2023 or 2024.
The other one is that most of the guys who showed the least as rookies by and large haven't done much of anything in the ensuing seasons, either. The bottom third of the list only includes a couple of players who have gone on to have good seasons: Mike Williams with the Chargers, Jameson Williams last year, Corey Davis and (to a lesser extent; he's still around, at least) Nelson Agholor. Granted, there are outside factors in a couple of these. Jameson was hurt most of his rookie season. Ricky Pearsall got shot. All quiet performance aren't equal.
But in general, if McMillan and other expected first-rounders (Matthew Golden, Emeka Egbuka) are going to develop into good pros, odds are we'll see some sign of it right away.
--Andy Richardson