Jalen Hurts was a second-round pick. Dak Prescott was a fourth. (Further back, of course, Tom Brady was a sixth-rounder.) We can point to those guys when talking about the possibility that New Orleans' second-rounder Tyler Shough (pictured) or Seattle third-rounder Jalen Milroe emerges as a quality starter.
But make no mistake, the odds are long of it happening. Teams rarely let promising quarterbacks slip out of the first round these days.
It used to happen more often. Consider the five-year period between 2010-2015, for example, which produced Super Bowl winners Russell Wilson and Nick Foles, and reasonably successful starters like Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Jimmy Garoppolo and Derek Carr. A relative bounty of second- and third-rounders who were solid NFL players for a time.
But in writing up Shough and Milroe (and Cleveland's two selections, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders) I delved into the recent history. It's a lot rarer since then.
In the last 10 years (2015-2024), there have been 78 quarterbacks drafted outside the first round; eounds 2 through 7. I'm not going to present all 78 names. Instead, I'll present the ones who actually started at least half of an NFL season (8 games) in one of those years. There are only 17 of them.
Table shows the best NFL seasons by each of those 17 players. Just four of them have had at least one top-15 fantasy season in that decade. Out of the 78 drafted.
You might expect more of the hits to be second rounders, or even third-rounders. But interestingly enough, there was only hit from the second, same as from the seventh. One fourth-rounder. And the fourth top-15 season was by fifth-rounder Sam Howell (who despite that one productive fantasy season would not be considered a hit).
Again, the table only shows those quarterbacks who have actually been a starter for at least 8 games in an NFL season. Typically with quarterbacks drafted in the middle or late rounds, you're just hoping for a serviceable backup who makes a few spot starts here or there.
But we've basically got only three successful quarterbacks drafted outside the first round from the last decade. It doesn't happen very often.
Table shows stats from each quarterback's best season. Top-15 seasons in bold.
| NON 1ST-RD QBS BEST SEASONS (MINIMUM 8 STARTS), 2015-2024 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rd | Best | Player | GS | Pass | TD | Run | TD | Rk |
| 2 | 2024 | Will Levis, Ten. | 12 | 2091 | 13 | 183 | 0 | 29 |
| 4 | 2023 | Aidan O'Connell, L.V. | 10 | 2218 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 29 |
| 7 | 2023 | Brock Purdy, S.F. | 16 | 4280 | 31 | 144 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | 2023 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 17 | 4516 | 36 | 242 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | 2023 | Desmond Ridder, Atl. | 13 | 2836 | 12 | 193 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | 2023 | Gardner Minshew, Ind. | 13 | 3305 | 15 | 100 | 3 | 21 |
| 2 | 2023 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 17 | 3858 | 23 | 605 | 15 | 2 |
| 4 | 2023 | Joshua Dobbs, 2TM | 12 | 2464 | 13 | 421 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | 2023 | Sam Howell, Was. | 17 | 3946 | 21 | 263 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | 2022 | Davis Mills, Hou. | 15 | 3118 | 17 | 108 | 2 | 19 |
| 2 | 2020 | Drew Lock, Den. | 13 | 2933 | 16 | 160 | 3 | 23 |
| 3 | 2019 | Jacoby Brissett, Ind. | 15 | 2942 | 18 | 228 | 4 | 24 |
| 3 | 2019 | Mason Rudolph, Pitt. | 8 | 1765 | 13 | 42 | 0 | 30 |
| 5 | 2017 | Brett Hundley, G.B. | 9 | 1836 | 9 | 270 | 2 | 30 |
| 2 | 2017 | DeShone Kizer, Cle. | 15 | 2894 | 11 | 419 | 5 | 22 |
| 3 | 2016 | Cody Kessler, Cle. | 8 | 1380 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 32 |
| 7 | 2016 | Trevor Siemian, Den. | 14 | 3401 | 18 | 57 | 0 | 26 |
I will make a soft case for Shough. There's a really good chance he'll make starts for New Orleans this year, maybe Week 1. New coach Kellen Moore has worked with two of the hits on this list, Prescott and Hurts. Maybe he can design an offense that plays to his strengths. And Milroe, of course, has that great running ability; maybe Seattle is able to develop him as a passer. Guys do get better (Hurts certainly has). And the NFL still does miss some times, as Purdy proves.
Would be nice to see, but it doesn't happen very often.
--Andy Richardson