We’ll know in a couple of weeks, but I’m wondering where Shedeur Sanders will land. If Cleveland doesn’t take him at No. 2, how far might he slide?
I don’t think the Browns will pick Sanders. That franchise has missed on so many quarterbacks, wouldn’t it be a lot smarter to simply pick up a known-quantity building block like Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter? If they go that route, they could slap a Band-Aid on the quarterback position later by trading for Kirk Cousins. Or maybe there’s a quarterback they like who’ll be available at the top of the second.
If Sanders makes it past Cleveland, then the focus turns to the other teams in that top 10 who have lesser veterans already in place. Giants (Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston), Raiders (Geno Smith), Jets (Justin Fields), Saints (Derek Carr). Or some other team picking him in the teens or trading up.
The Raiders, of course, traded for Geno Smith, they haven’t yet signed him to a contract extension, creating the potential he’ll turn into a Cousins. (I don’t think this will happen, but maybe.)
Sanders completed 74 percent last year, but he’s a modest quarterback physically. He has below-average mobility (he doesn’t move like his Hall of Fame father) and a lesser arm. He would not be a No. 2 overall pick in a typical draft.
Note that at Colorado, Sanders took a ton of sacks – 52 as a junior, and 42 last year. While some of those can be attributed to playing behind a lesser line, he also had a tendency to simply hold the ball too long. That will need to be corrected.
Typically, when guys have problems with taking sacks in college, it tends to carry over into the pros. Most prominently, Justin Fields took way too many sacks at Ohio State, and it’s been his No. 1 issue in the pros. Caleb Williams took too many sacks at Southern Cal, and that was also an issue in his rookie season.
Chart below shows the stats from final college seasons for quarterbacks picked in the top dozen in the last 10 years. They’re ordered by sack percentage. Sanders shows up next-to-last, ahead of only Fields, among guys with notable playing time. (Sanders’ 2023 numbers are a lot worse than anything Fields did at Ohio State.)
| SACK PERCENTAGES FOR EARLY PICKS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Sack | Att | Pct |
| 2023 | 12 | Bo Nix | 5 | 470 | 1.1% |
| 2023 | 7 | Michael Penix | 11 | 555 | 1.9% |
| 2016 | 12 | Deshaun Watson | 17 | 579 | 2.9% |
| 2022 | 2 | C.J. Stroud | 12 | 389 | 3.0% |
| 2015 | 2 | Carson Wentz | 8 | 208 | 3.7% |
| 2019 | 5 | Tua Tagovailoa | 10 | 252 | 3.8% |
| 2022 | 4 | Anthony Richardson | 14 | 327 | 4.1% |
| 2016 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky | 20 | 446 | 4.3% |
| 2020 | 1 | Trevor Lawrence | 15 | 334 | 4.3% |
| 2016 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes | 27 | 591 | 4.4% |
| 2020 | 2 | Zach Wilson | 11 | 236 | 4.5% |
| 2022 | 1 | Bryce Young | 18 | 380 | 4.5% |
| 2018 | 1 | Kyler Murray | 18 | 377 | 4.6% |
| 2024 | x | • Cam Ward | 22 | 454 | 4.6% |
| 2015 | 1 | Jared Goff | 26 | 529 | 4.7% |
| 2019 | 6 | Justin Herbert | 24 | 428 | 5.3% |
| 2023 | 10 | J.J. McCarthy | 19 | 332 | 5.4% |
| 2017 | 10 | Josh Rosen | 26 | 451 | 5.5% |
| 2017 | 3 | Sam Darnold | 29 | 480 | 5.7% |
| 2017 | 1 | Baker Mayfield | 26 | 404 | 6.0% |
| 2019 | 1 | Joe Burrow | 34 | 527 | 6.1% |
| 2023 | 2 | Jayden Daniels | 22 | 327 | 6.3% |
| 2023 | 3 | Drake Maye | 29 | 425 | 6.4% |
| 2018 | 6 | Daniel Jones | 28 | 392 | 6.7% |
| 2017 | 7 | Josh Allen | 22 | 270 | 7.5% |
| 2023 | 1 | Caleb Williams | 33 | 388 | 7.8% |
| 2024 | x | Shedeur Sanders | 42 | 477 | 8.1% |
| 2020 | 11 | Justin Fields | 21 | 225 | 8.5% |
| 2020 | 2 | Trey Lance | 3 | 30 | 9.1% |
—Ian Allan