While it’s too early to draw a definitive conclusion, that was an underwhelming first season for Ja’Lynn Polk. And the historical numbers suggest when a player doesn’t do much in his first season, it becomes a lot more likely that it simply isn’t going to happen.
Polk caught only 12 of the 33 passes thrown his way last year, for 87 drops. On the plus side, he caught 2 short touchdowns, with another touchdown overturned by a replay, but he also dropped 4 passes.
Polk was generally healthy (missing two games), he just wasn’t that good. The Patriots eventually settled on DeMario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte and Kendrick Bourne as their main wide receivers.
One season, of course, doesn’t make a career. Isaac Bruce and Demaryius Thomas didn’t do much of anything in their first seasons and went on to combine for 13 seasons with 1,000-plus yards, with each starting in multiple Super Bowls.
But with most receivers, if it doesn’t happen early, they tend to never meet expectations.
In the 32-team era, 123 wide receivers have been selected with top-40 picks. Of the 30 least-productive of those seasons (using first-year PPR numbers), two thirds never had a top-50 season in their career. And most never ranked higher than 70th in a season.
The chart below shows the 30 worst rookie receivers (among top-40 picks) of the last 23 years. You’re seeing their rookie-season numbers, along with the pass-catching stats (and rank at the position) for the best year of their career.
Only three ever had a top-20 season (tagged with double dots). Five others had a top-30 season (tagged with one dot). Note that some of these receivers had injury issues in their first season, including Thomas (10 games) and Jameson Williams (6 games).
SLOW-STARTING WIDE RECEIVERS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Best season |
2007 | • Robert Meachem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45-722-9 |
2015 | Breshad Perriman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36-645-6 |
2015 | Kevin White | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19-187-0 |
2012 | A.J. Jenkins | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8-130-0 |
2017 | John Ross | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28-506-3 |
2016 | Laquon Treadwell | 9 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 33-434-1 |
2016 | Josh Doctson | 2 | 6 | 2 | 66 | 0 | 35-502-6 |
2022 | • Jameson Williams | 6 | 9 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 58-1001-7 |
2009 | Brian Robiskie | 11 | 20 | 7 | 106 | 0 | 29-310-3 |
2004 | Michael Jenkins | 16 | 20 | 7 | 119 | 0 | 50-777-3 |
2017 | •• Mike Williams | 10 | 23 | 11 | 95 | 0 | 76-1146-9 |
2015 | Devin Smith | 10 | 28 | 9 | 115 | 1 | 9-115-1 |
2004 | Rashaun Woods | 14 | 23 | 7 | 160 | 1 | 7-160-1 |
2009 | • Darrius Heyward-Bey | 11 | 40 | 9 | 124 | 1 | 64-975-4 |
2024 | Ja'Lynn Polk | 15 | 33 | 12 | 87 | 2 | ? |
2017 | • Curtis Samuel | 9 | 26 | 15 | 115 | 0 | 77-851-3 |
2008 | Devin Thomas | 16 | 27 | 15 | 120 | 0 | 25-325-3 |
2012 | Brian Quick | 15 | 27 | 11 | 156 | 2 | 41-564-3 |
2019 | N'Keal Harry | 7 | 24 | 12 | 105 | 2 | 33-309-2 |
2005 | Mark Bradley | 7 | 36 | 18 | 230 | 0 | 30-380-3 |
2007 | Craig Davis | 13 | 34 | 20 | 188 | 1 | 20-188-1 |
2015 | Phillip Dorsett | 11 | 39 | 18 | 225 | 1 | 29-397-5 |
2006 | Chad Jackson | 12 | 19 | 13 | 152 | 3 | 13-152-3 |
2011 | Jonathan Baldwin | 11 | 52 | 21 | 254 | 1 | 20-325-1 |
2024 | Mike Williams | 18 | 34 | 21 | 298 | 1 | 21-298-1 |
2015 | • Nelson Agholor | 13 | 44 | 23 | 283 | 1 | 62-768-8 |
2002 | •• Javon Walker | 15 | 50 | 23 | 319 | 1 | 89-1382-12 |
2010 | •• Demaryius Thomas | 10 | 39 | 22 | 283 | 2 | 92-1430-14 |
2004 | Reggie Williams | 16 | 54 | 27 | 268 | 1 | 38-629-10 |
2003 | Charles Rogers | 5 | 52 | 22 | 243 | 3 | 22-243-3 |
2005 | Mike Williams | 14 | 57 | 29 | 350 | 1 | 65-751-2 |
It doesn’t lay out well for Polk. With the Patriots having their quarterback and looking to get the offense kick-started, I’m sure they’ll be bringing in a notable wide receiver who’ll be expected to be their No. 1 guy – maybe Tee Higgins. They’ve got a lot of cap room.
I suppose in a large dynasty league, somebody winds up holding Polk with one of their final roster spots, hoping he shows up new and improved in August, but he’s not a player I’d want to be holding right now.
—Ian Allan