Fantasy Index

Factoid

Justin Fields: not as bad as you think

Rushing production makes him a sneaky value

I’m not a big Justin Fields fan. But he has a playing style that translates really favorably for fantasy purposes.

We’re all well acquainted with his shortcomings. Way too many sacks, missed throws and losses. Way too much of a tendency to make the key error at the key moment.

But man, can he run. In that capacity, he’s not all that different than Josh Allen and Cam Newton – big guys who can move.

When we blend the running and passing together, the result isn’t quite what you think it might be.

Below see the list of the 25 quarterbacks who’ve started at least half the time over the last three years. Fields in this group ranks last in passing yards and near the bottom in touchdown passes (just 38 in 34 starts). Pretty awful, and one might reasonably think completely undraftable.

But Fields in those same 34 games has averaged 60 rushing yards, with 17 touchdowns. So for average rushing production, he’s No. 1 in yards, with only Allen and Jalen Hurts averaging more rushing touchdowns.

In typical fantasy scoring systems, rushing stats are worth almost twice as much, causing a player like Fields (despite his considerable flaws) to rank far more favorably than most are expecting.

In the most standard of formats, he’s posted the 8th-best overall numbers among quarterbacks over the last three years. He was 6th in 2022, 9th in 2023, and he was posting above-average numbers last year before they pulled him in in October.

I have not stacked a board yet, but I’m expecting I’ll have Fields graded as a guy who should be a second quarterback in a typical 12-team league. And if he’s not getting picked in the first 24, he would be a player where you might make an exception and carry a third quarterback, giving you the ability to control his rights in September, gauging what he might be.

Aaron Glenn, of course, knows all about Fields’ running ability. Fields had five 100-yard rushing games while he was with Chicago; three of them were against Detroit.

QUARTERBACKS: POINTS PER START (2022-24)
RkStPassTDPIntRunTDRPts
1.Josh Allen50246.41.84.7636.3.7027.8
2.Jalen Hurts47222.61.34.5542.4.8926.2
3.Lamar Jackson45224.31.82.4055.6.2725.8
4.Joe Burrow43272.12.16.6312.7.1624.6
5.Patrick Mahomes49272.71.92.7621.5.1224.3
6.Brock Purdy36256.71.72.6913.3.2222.4
7.Dak Prescott37252.81.89.8612.9.1122.3
8.Justin Fields34173.81.12.6259.7.5022.2
9.Jared Goff51267.51.88.612.9.0621.7
10.Kyler Murray36222.71.25.6434.3.3121.7
11.Jordan Love32235.91.78.6910.3.1621.2
12.Tua Tagovailoa41269.21.78.714.7.0021.2
13.Trevor Lawrence43236.61.33.6717.4.2820.9
14.Baker Mayfield44234.61.73.7714.1.1120.9
15.Kirk Cousins39266.31.67.903.1.0520.8
16.Justin Herbert47249.91.45.4314.5.1120.6
17.Geno Smith49249.51.45.7116.2.0820.5
18.Russell Wilson41221.41.41.5918.9.2019.9
19.C.J. Stroud32244.81.34.5312.5.0919.5
20.Daniel Jones32193.3.78.5636.8.3118.5
21.Derek Carr42227.31.52.645.1.0218.3
22.Matthew Stafford40245.41.35.682.9.0318.2
23.Aaron Rodgers35216.91.54.665.7.0318.0
24.Bryce Young28186.6.93.6817.6.2116.2
25.Mac Jones32203.9.94.978.9.0615.3

—Ian Allan

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