It’s early (let’s see what the Patriots add in the offseason, particularly on the offensive line and at wide receiver). But I like the look of Drake Maye.
He came in better than expected as a rookie. He left two games very early, but in his other 10 starts, he averaged 223 passing yards, with 15 TDs, while also averaging 36 rushing yards, with another touchdown.
Those are above-average per-game numbers. In standard scoring, he was pretty much identical to Patrick Mahomes – a top-12 fantasy quarterback.
In particular, I love the mobility. He’s kind of Josh Allen Lite, with size, mobility, and a good feel for when to take off. He averaged 7.8 yards per attempt, which is the 2nd-most by any quarterback in the last 25 years (among those with at least 50 attempts). Only 2006 Michael Vick averaged more yards per carry among quarterbacks.
Only 10 others have averaged at least 7 yards per attempt.
| AVERAGING 7 YARDS PER CARRY (last 25 yrs) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | GS | Att | Yds | Avg | TD |
| 2006 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 16 | 123 | 1039 | 8.4 | 2 |
| 2024 | Drake Maye, N.E. | 12 | 54 | 421 | 7.8 | 2 |
| 2011 | Michael Vick, Phil. | 13 | 76 | 589 | 7.8 | 1 |
| 2004 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 15 | 120 | 902 | 7.5 | 3 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 56 | 419 | 7.5 | 0 |
| 2024 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 17 | 78 | 572 | 7.3 | 5 |
| 2000 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 16 | 86 | 629 | 7.3 | 6 |
| 2002 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 10 | 63 | 460 | 7.3 | 6 |
| 2014 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 118 | 849 | 7.2 | 6 |
| 2022 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 15 | 160 | 1143 | 7.1 | 8 |
| 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 11 | 89 | 631 | 7.1 | 8 |
With quarterbacks, it tends to be what you see is what you get. If a guy runs a bunch in college (like Jayden Daniels most recently), that tends to translate to the pros. And if a guy does it at the NFL level, he tends to continue to do so.
Below see a sampling of quarterbacks in the last 25 years who’ve averaged 30-39 rushing yards. (I’m leaving out the players like Lamar Jackson and Michael Vick who’s average 40-, 50- and even 60-plus yards per game – focused instead in comping against guys similar to Drake).
There are been others who’ve landed in the 30-39 yards range, but I’m listing only the 31 who also started at least half of the following season. We can then look at how they performed in the next act of their career.
Only five of these 31 quarterbacks averaged fewer than 20 rushing yards the next year. I’ve got those guys tagged with double dots, and I’ve got single dots and two others who averaged less than 25 yards. But for the bulk of these guys, they continued running at something close to the same level.
For the group as a whole, they averaged 34 rushing yards per game the next season, with 149 touchdowns in 446 games (about 1 every 3 weeks).
| AVERAGING 30-39 RUSHING YARDS (the next year) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Run | TDR | Pt/G |
| 2001 | Kordell Stewart, Pitt. | 16 | 33.6 | .31 | 5.2 |
| 2001 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 16 | 30.1 | .13 | 3.8 |
| 2001 | •• Rich Gannon, Oak. | 16 | 14.4 | .13 | 2.2 |
| 2002 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 10 | 46.0 | .60 | 8.2 |
| 2002 | Daunte Culpepper, Min. | 16 | 38.1 | .63 | 7.6 |
| 2003 | Daunte Culpepper, Min. | 14 | 30.1 | .29 | 4.7 |
| 2004 | Daunte Culpepper, Min. | 16 | 25.4 | .13 | 3.3 |
| 2006 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 16 | 64.9 | .13 | 7.2 |
| 2013 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 33.7 | .06 | 3.7 |
| 2014 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 53.1 | .38 | 7.6 |
| 2014 | Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | 16 | 39.9 | .06 | 4.4 |
| 2014 | Cam Newton, Car. | 14 | 38.5 | .36 | 6.0 |
| 2015 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 39.8 | .63 | 7.7 |
| 2015 | Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | 8 | 32.0 | .13 | 4.0 |
| 2016 | Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | 11 | 42.5 | .18 | 5.3 |
| 2016 | • Cam Newton, Car. | 15 | 23.9 | .33 | 4.4 |
| 2016 | •• Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 16.2 | .13 | 2.4 |
| 2016 | •• Alex Smith, K.C. | 15 | 8.9 | .33 | 2.9 |
| 2017 | Tyrod Taylor, Buff. | 14 | 27.8 | .21 | 4.1 |
| 2018 | • Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 23.5 | .00 | 2.4 |
| 2019 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 15 | 27.5 | .53 | 6.0 |
| 2019 | •• Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 15 | 12.9 | .13 | 2.1 |
| 2020 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 51.2 | .69 | 9.2 |
| 2020 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 16 | 26.3 | .56 | 6.0 |
| 2021 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 11 | 27.1 | .18 | 3.8 |
| 2021 | •• Russell Wilson, Sea. | 14 | 13.1 | .14 | 2.2 |
| 2022 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 15 | 76.2 | .53 | 10.8 |
| 2022 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 11 | 38.0 | .27 | 5.4 |
| 2023 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 8 | 30.5 | .38 | 5.3 |
| 2024 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 15 | 42.0 | .93 | 9.8 |
| 2024 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 17 | 31.2 | .76 | 7.7 |
| '01-24 | Average | 14 | 33.5 | .33 | 5.4 |
I can’t promise Maye will finish as a top-5 runner at his position. There are a lot of mobile quarterbacks right now. But he might, and he looks like a good bet to at least finish in the top 10.
Rushing production is key in grading quarterbacks for fantasy purposes. Maye checks that box, and he could be a guy that I’ll be looking to pick up in drafts this summer.
I haven’t formulated a draft board yet, but I would guess I’ll have him in the low teens – in general, not a player who can be counted on to be an every-week starter, but a possibility to play his way into being a top-10 guy as the season progresses.
—Ian Allan